you'll be aware of this public health
England document the challenge for News
the scene that says they expect 80% of
the population to be infected and
perhaps 15% to be hospitalized and those
sort of percentages that you recognize
at a UK level under Scottish level they
are there the numbers are consuming and
the kind of numbers we've been working
with for the last few weeks they're not
on gold to happen on Wednesday which is
one of the reasons why the method we're
trying to apply in Scotland and the UK
is to smooth that hospitalization over
time so that we protect the vulnerable
and we protect our health service but if
those numbers are potentially correct
you're talking about in England almost 8
million people requiring hospitalization
in Scotland would it be about 800
thousands without mitigation so if we
did nothing that's what the science
tells us if we do stuff and you can't
argue yet that we haven't been doing
stuff and we're going to have to do more
things over the next few weeks even
today there may be choices made around
what the next stages are with mitigation
that number comes down significantly
however don't misunderstand me this is
going to be a challenge for all of the
UK health services over the next few
months we're not going to make that
disappear so your expectation is if the
measures you're taking work then we're
not going to see eight million people in
hospital that's correct but we are going
to see people in hospital with this
virus and to be honest some people are
going to die of the disease this virus
causes the vast majority of people are
going to recover they're gonna have
minor illness they're gonna stay at home
for seven days likely advice says and
they're going to recover and they're
going to go back to their daily lives
another revelation from that document
was that NHS staff in England wouldn't
be routinely tested will they be
routinely tested in Scotland so we're
looking in Scotland at what we call
critical workers and critical workers
the the simplest group is probably
imagine those working in the nuclear
power industry or those working in our
nuclear submarine zone so we are looking
at categories of critical workers in
Scotland critical workers will include
health and care workers and we will test
them the only reason for that though is
not so we normal something special about
the disease the reason we do that is so
we can get them back to work in the
frontline of whatever it is they do
whether they're running the police
control room or running the intensive
care unit at the Queen Elizabeth
Hospital in Glasgow
test them if they're showing symptoms
correct how many test kits then are
there how many
NHS staff are there so the numbers don't
really make much sense to compare one
with the other we have absolutely
adequate testing it's gone in fact
Glasgow is no doing the confirmatory
testing so we're not having to say any
tests anywhere else we are absolutely
confident we can test the communities we
need this there's another very important
testing point Scotland will this week
move to population level testing moving
to potentially testing 1.2 million
people to allow us to monitor the
disease over time we have to look after
the individuals which is what you're
talking about but we also have to look
after the population we have to know
when to intervene at a population level
and we only know that if we know what's
happening with the virus across the
whole country
so you anticipate and you would like to
test and you have the capacity to test
1.2 million people in Scotland those 1.2
million people won't all be on the same
day so we will test people with symptoms
in what we call our Sentinel practices
there are practices that we already use
for testing for seasonal flu for testing
front other diseases it's a public
health measure that allows us to monitor
disease over a population now remember
if you come to hospital with severe
symptoms and you're really sick of
course we will test you and we will
treat you and the health services in the
country are ready for that eventualities
people might be wondering why this sort
of community testing hasn't been
happening already when the World Health
Organization is very clearly employed
countries to test and trace every single
case so are we at the movement testing
and tracing every single case no we're
not we did that in phase one we were on
this program and others talking about
the containment phase of the virus and
that was the advice in the containment
phase find the case see where they've
traveled from test or point
let's put them in homes no wood in a
different phase wood in the delay phase
of the virus the virus is here I would
love to be able to come on your program
and see we can get rid of this virus if
we just all hunker down the virus will
go away it's not going to happen so no
we have to delay the spread of the virus
to allow the vulnerable to be protected
and the Health Service to manage so
that's why the testing regime changes
now for for very good scientific reasons
so we test those with really bad
symptoms and then treat them but we also
test that a population level to know
when to intervene our population level
do you understand why there is public
anxiety when they hear that sort of
messaging from the whu-oh saying that
they want every case every case to be
tested and here you are so I think our
own scientific evidence for saying
that's not happening in the UK
I understand public anxiety I can't miss
it I have family I have 79 year old
parents I have nieces and nephews who
are at school today the WH all guidance
is for a hundred and ninety four
countries they have a different job from
the Scottish government and the UK
government they have to have guidance
that applies in Senegal in Somalia in
Syria and in Scott so when it reaches
the country it shouldn't be a surprise
that that guidance would be nuanced and
changed and adapted to what that
country's Health Service can do and
should do so our Health Service looks
very different from the Health Service
in South Korea or in Japan so we are
adapting the best science available
including the WTO advice and what we see
in other countries as we monitor the
virus and its spread and what our
scientists tell us about what we should
do for our populations so there is
divergence between the approach that the
UK and Scotland is taking from the
messaging that we hear from the w-h-o so
we think we're using the WHL guidance to
inform our approach to the for UK
countries so Shetland looks very very
different even from Glasgow nevermind
from Tuscany so the health services the
care systems that we have in each of
these contexts varies so it would
foolish of us to take some kind of
cooker cutter approach from somewhere
else in the world and apply it to a
Scottish Welsh Irish or English context
so we have to take the best advice we
can from the epidemiologists and from
the behavioral scientists add that into
what our culture our society can do and
should do and then apply that to our
country people don't look people don't
need to look very far to see a radically
different approach the Irish prime
minister said this weekend he said the
people who have been out this weekend
should avoid contact with seniors or
people with chronic diseases you could
make them very very sick do you believe
the people who have been out in Scotland
and the UK this weekend to have contact
with elderly people could make them very
very sick I do not believe that's
necessary I visited my parents yesterday
and I will visit them again this week I
am asymptomatic I do not have the new
cough or the fever that would make me
stay at home for seven days I'm the last
person in the world though to criticize
other countries a views this is a hard
thing to solve so it's not
straightforward I'm in touch with my
counterparts in Ireland in other parts
of the world you would expect us to do
that the chief medical officers are in
touch with theirs so other countries can
choose what they do from their
demographics and their science I can
tell you that in Scotland and the UK we
are following that science really really
closely the cases can be transmitted
when people are asymptomatic or
pre-symptomatic they can but it's
unusual we learn more about the virus
all the time as cases rise in other
parts of the world and in the UK so one
of the reasons for delay in fact is to
allow us to do more research both on the
virus itself and its effect on the
population leading eventually to better
treatment vaccine etc so the more we
learn about the virus the better it
appears from around the world that the
vast majority of transmission is in
symptomatic individuals that makes sense
because it's a droplet split so it's
spread by you coughing sneezing other
other things it's not in the ear
it's not an aerosol virus so therefore
you have to take it from a surface or a
human being and put it in you so you
have to touch your nose your eyes or
your mouth so if we wash our hands clean
our surfaces then the virus can't get
into us you say yeah it's a bad
transmission between people and people
would have gone to work to schools it's
just going about their daily life today
on buses on trains they'll have been in
confined spaces with other individuals
many people in the rest of the world are
calling for quite aggressive social
distancing measures in Ireland again
asking for people to stay six feet apart
from other people they will look and ask
why are we again the outlier so we
believe that social distancing when a
pulpit is the right thing to do and
we're social distancing those with
symptoms already and over the days and
weeks to come we will have to take more
measures around exactly what you
described we have to do that at the
right moment when there when the virus
is at the stage where we think it's
required because this is a long haul to
suggest that we should put all the
people in homes and lock them in for
four months that gives us a whole lot of
new problems three other people so there
are there are suggestions that if we
lock down the country that if we close
the border close the schools
get everybody in their houses then
that's going to solve our problem the
the problem with that is you'd have to
do that for a long long time so so we
don't think that's required at this
stage there may be a point at which we
choose to do more we tell the public to
do other things but we have to do that
when the curve is at the right point in
order to protect the public what harm
could come from people keeping their
distance at the moment they're staying
six feet apart so you can't keep 60
million people 6 feet apart it's if only
were as simple as that I honestly wish
it was like a video game and if we
pressed a B would happen but but it
isn't it's it's human behaviour and
protecting that vulnerable community no
people with symptoms let's go over it
again people with symptoms with a new
cough and or a fever should stay home
but those without symptoms can go about
their business as normal for now do you
worry you're asking people with symptoms
they mainly quite mild symptoms compared
to what people are used to you're asking
them to stay at home and do something
they've never done before with these
mild symptoms do you worry that they're
going to do that that message is not
going to go through get through when at
the same time they're hearing other
messages like well we're all going to
get it anyway so I've been challenged by
in the last few days in this newfound
media career of mine where those who
think I'm not taking it seriously enough
and those who think I'm taking it too
seriously the the balance is really
difficult here and you see in other
countries and other places where that
balance is really challenging so we need
the public to do things that public is
not used to doing and we're going to
have to get them to do that for quite a
long time it's why the panic buying is
is a challenge for us because we want
everybody to wash their hands
not just you so leave salt for other
people so so we need the we need the
society to behave in a particular way so
therefore I the the interventions
carefully chosen for scientific reasons
and the timing of the interventions for
the same scientific reasons are crucial
to what extent has the messaging around
herd immunity do you think undermined
this effort to get people with mild
symptoms to isolate for the greater good
of society I don't think it's undermined
it there is a there is a bit of work to
be done in the messaging with the whole
of society those who watch Channel 4
News but also those who don't
so I've done sports programs when I
never thought the National Clinical
Director would be on a sports program
later today I'm going to do a music
program so we have to get the message
out to young people to kids to the
elderly who are worried and lonely
perhaps that they're going to be left in
their houses for a long period so we
have to get that messaging out that
we're doing two things were more caring
for the individuals who are sick and the
health services are ready for that and
they are getting more ready for more
patients and we're protecting the
population particularly the vulnerable
at the same time I mean do you agree
with Sir Patrick balance the chief
scientific adviser that one of the aims
of the UK
is for people to develop some immunity
to this disease I do I absolutely agree
with them because we have no choice you
can't get rid of the virus you can wash
it away but Atwell nor goo so therefore
we have to manage the infection safely
across a whole population while at the
same time treating the individuals who
get sick and that's why the health
services are ramping up they're
adjusting to allow us to be able to do
that the British society of immunology
say we don't know yet if this novel
virus will induce long-term immunity so
why you so sure that it will when they
are not so we know that if you get it
you don't appear to get it again so from
the data but again were alarming all the
time from data around occur around the
world and scientists including Scottish
and UK scientists are linking with their
partners in Australia in Korea in China
to learn more and more about this virus
but it appears very very rare if ever
you get it twice so if we can manage
that that would suggest that those
people will then help us get to an
immunity across the whole society these
these are not easy decisions but the
alternative that people are offering
which is close the borders send
everybody home for a prolonged period
that that doesn't that's not without
cost either so just to be clear this
idea of herd immunity is still part of
the overall strategy I'm not so sure I
like the the freeze because it's it's
taken on a connotation that perhaps is a
little bit worrying for people what
we're trying to do is manage the spread
of the virus safely over time in the
population and that will lead to more
people getting the virus and surviving
getting get people getting the virus is
part of our plan to deal with it over a
sustained and long period if we don't
have a choice that people will get the
virus can I just ask you about what
measures people are taking themselves or
what workplaces are taken to try and
protect people from it because we see
images from the rest of the world where
there are confirmed cases and people
sweep in and decontaminate the area that
is not what workplaces in this
being advises it it's not and we expect
people to take this very seriously but
not to panic we expect people with
symptoms to stay home and over the next
days and weeks there will be other
interventions that we will use an
individual and a population level to
deal with the rise in vital cases that
we will see inevitably over the next few
weeks but we are not doing the contact
tracing and the individual extreme
measures that we took in the beginning
of this vital a pandemic which we did do
it across the UK no word in a second
phase in the Delhi fees which doesn't
require us to do that anymore just want
to share with you an email from Glasgow
University to its staff after it had
three confirmed cases they say that the
health protective Scotland guided and
says that if you are symptom free after
seven days you can go back to work there
was no need for contacts of known cases
to self isolate a fact unless they
develop a fever or persistent cough and
the advice is that there is no value in
deep cleaning spaces used by confirmed
cases do you agree with that I do agree
with that the Health Protection Scotland
website is a great source of calming
advice for the public the best place to
go is for Scotland for NHS informed
torts court although I understand other
countries are using it almost as much as
Scottish people are using it so there's
public advice but there's also their
professional advice for businesses for
care homes for other places where people
congregate and health protection of
Scotland have been very helpful in that
advice so where there's been a confirmed
case in workplaces we're not deep
cleaning those areas where that person
worked
we are not can you see why that might be
of cause for concern for people if
they're worried about contagion I can
see why the whole viral pandemic there's
a cause for concern for people what
we're trying to do is family and
overtime deal with it I can tell people
that the health services in the UK are
ready to treat those who are sick today
irrespective of if they have the virus
or not there will be road traffic
accidents today people will have storks
today the health services are ready and
I can assure them
that a population level the four chief
medical officers the politicians the
clinical advisors like we are in
lockstep with how to do with us in terms
of the intensive care capacity we've
been told that will double in Scotland
can you give us the timeframe it will
double win it requires to double so just
know we don't need double the intensive
care beds because we don't have patients
yet who are that sick so we will double
as and when that's required and we will
cut back on elective surgery as and when
that is required also allows us to then
train staff to be ready for that intake
of patients and sorry just just to
clarify if it required
it could be doubled this week if
necessary it could absolutely be doubled
this week it will not be necessary this
week I could that's that's that's gonna
be a reassurance for other people in
terms of ventilators we've heard in
England how many they have and the drive
to try and get more how many ventilators
are there in scope we have enough
ventilators for every intensive care bed
including the doubling of the intensive
qubits so that I never have 400 and more
you