>> Welcome back, the U.S. And
western officials are seeing
signs that Ukraine's
counteroffensive is already
underway.
Military intelligence officials
tell CNN that the Ukrainian
forces have begun testing
Russian positions.
The artillery strikes and
ground attacks, searching for
vulnerabilities.
This long awaited
counteroffensive is expected to
be carried out on multiple
fronts.
This is nearly 16 months after
Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Joining us this morning is mark
Esper, who served as defense
secretary under president
trump.
Secretary expert, good morning,
and thank you.
>> Good morning.
>> What needs to happen for
this counteroffensive to be
successful?
>> I think that what needs to
happen to us what seemed to be
underway right.
Now they're conducting shaping
operations for the last couple
weeks or so, bombing refineries,
knocking out rail lines, et
cetera.
But now we are in the part of
the phase that we call
recognizance where small
armored units go out and probe
the 600-mile front line if you
will to try and find the
weaknesses, and the strong
points.
And I think that once they
figure that out, you will start
seeing that the main effort
emerges very quickly along with
supporting efforts to really
push the Russians back in both
the east and the south.
And it will be quite dramatic,
I expect.
>> Secretary, one of the things
I picked up over the course of
the last several months both
here in the U.S. But also
talking and European
counterparts as well, is that I
think it was captured by David
ignatius in the Washington
post.
It said that if Ukraine can
drive back an already shaky
Russian army, it stands a
chance in Moscow to bargain for
an end to the failed invasion.
But if Ukraine fails, would be
a bitter blow to the country's
population and could endanger
continue support from some
restless nato members.
I think the question I have had
leading up to this moment is
how, is this a do or die moment
to use a poor cliché for the
Ukrainian forces for Ukraine in
this conflict right now?
>> It's a very significant
moment.
Everybody is looking to Ukraine
to be very successful.
You know, I was in Europe two
weeks ago for about two weeks,
and the number one question
over there is, where is U.S.
Support?
And everybody fairly things
that if Ukraine does, well U.S.
Import will continue.
If, not it could weather, and
if your support weathers, then
a lot of other countries will
go with it.
So it is very important and I
think Ukraine understands as
politically, not just
militarily, but they have a
very successful
counteroffensive.
It shows people a return on
their investment in the
Ukrainian military.
>> We know that some groups of
Ukrainian pilots have just are
traveling to the uk to get
trained on these f-16 fighter
jets.
There were lawmakers in the
U.S. Who said that we should be
trained as pilots before we
even made the decision to allow
the f-16s to go, because it
takes months, at least four, to
get them trained up.
Are they necessary in this
counteroffensive at the front
end?
>> I think it would be very
important to have them on board
now, but clearly, it won't
happen.
Clearly, we are conducting a
combined arms offense, which
means that heavy armored forces,
mechanized infantry, artillery,
et cetera, it would be helpful
to have a long range strike
aircraft that could hit targets,
tactical or support from those
units as well, and how clear
the skies of Russian aircraft.
At that won't be available.
I think the administration is
to blame for being late in
terms of delivering the most
vital items, whether it's
Abrams tanks or f-16 aircraft.
>> Mister secretary, to pulley
paraphrase one of your price,
answers you put war with the
army that you have, and the
army that you want.
There's been some divergence I
think what U.S. Officials have
been saying publicly about the
readiness of Ukraine, of its
forces in this moment, versus
maybe what the reality is
behind the effort to surge
equipment.
Do you think that Ukrainian
forces are ready to have a
successful counteroffensive?
>> But what I can read and
between the lines, I've talked
a lot of folks in Europe
recently, they have enough, but
they can do better if they have
far more, particularly of
course again, at 60 aircraft to
support them.
It is unclear whether they have
the numbers of states they
need.
But, look at this, point they
have to move forward on the
counter offensive.
We need to push the Russians
back, they need to show success,
because it will not just help
them on the battlefield, but
it's going to have them again
with western allies and
continue allied support.
>> John Bolton has an
interesting opinion piece in
the Wall Street journal today
where he takes on the Biden
administration, particularly on
Iran.
That's not surprising.
What is interesting I think is
how he ties together what we
are seeing in terms of
alliances and changing
alliances, and a close
relationship that we're seeing
between China and Russia.
How the uae and Saudi Arabia
play into it, given the
increasing concerns about Iran.
Here's what he writes.
The uae and others are now more
open to Russia and China.
These tectonic developments are
--
pending strategic failure from
America and its key allies.
Do you agree?
>> Well, look.
We need to shift towards the
focus on China as a greater
tragic threat that we face in a
century.
But if you do so in a way that
does not create a vacuum and
clearly, tournaments and the
Middle East.
Time is a net energy importer,
which is why they want access
to both the Middle East and to
Russia by the way, and so we
want to maintain a presence.
I think the administration is
working its relationship with
Saudi Arabia and others in the
region.
But look, we also see Iran
emerging.
It's not like a top weapons
supplier to Russia, as is
China.
So you see these boxcar shaping
up out there in the global
environment, and so it's
important we stay there.
>> Started 70 secretary, but
what do you mean the
administration is to workouts
relationship with Saudi Arabia?
President Biden went there to
the consternation of many, how
this bond, and then OPEC just
slashed productions.
>> Tony blinken's there right
now.
>> Tony blinken's having these
meetings with a very cordial
statement they came out
yesterday.
What does improvement look like
to you, or work on to you.
>> I think work on is Tony
blinken's visit.
I think that is important.
But clearly, the relationship
is not where it needs to be
between us.
We saw a few months ago, China
brokered that peace treaty, if
you will, between the Saudis
and Iran, and that was not a
good development.
And so I think it just requires
work.
Not just with the Saudis, that
the uae, Kuwait, Bahrain, and
others in the region, to which
we have a long term
relationship.