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at the very least maybe the tsunami will
put off some of the fires there is that
silver lining
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hi I'm Morgan page and I'm a
geophysicist with the US Geological
Survey in Pasadena California my name is
Mike Ango I'm the tzunami program
manager for the National Oceanographic
and Atmospheric Administration I'm Peter
Glick a hydrologist and climatologist
from the Pacific Institute in Oakland
California today we're going to be
reviewing some of Hollywood's biggest
disaster films and commenting on how
realistic they are this is toward the
end of the movie and the rock recognizes
boats are tilting in a way that suggests
that the water is receding pull around
like that he's right to be thinking
about that we've just had this strong
shaking tsunamis do tend to be
associated with that type of shaking
when you involve water but here's where
it starts to come off the rails what
they're depicting here is a giant
tsunami generated somewhere out in the
Pacific and there it is right there yeah
I don't think the world has seen this
large of a tsunami wave you would need a
major oceanic subduction zone type of an
event to generate that type of a wave
that mechanism does not exist in this
portion of the Pacific maybe we get some
fracturing the extension of the San
Andreas out there but it would all be
very kind of small just in first order
because of San Andreas the land is
moving horizontally it is a bit harder
to get tsunamis you need either vertical
motion of a fault to get a tsunami or
you need something where say the shaking
causes an underwater landslide and so
that gives you the movement of the
ground under the bay but you need
something a little different than you
would have in say a subduction zone
earth this one the way it's depicted you
can safely scratch off the list but
there is a long history of these movies
taking out the Golden Gate Bridge
well that's true figure out a way
if that was on your checklist take out
Golden Gate Bridge this is probably the
best way to do it I'm with you on that
Peter so when the earthquake hits the
house amanda peet and her family they
actually do the right thing in this
scene initially they drop cover and hold
on they get under a stable piece of
furniture which is offering them
protection from all the falling objects
but then john cusack arrives and tells
them to get out of there now their house
collapses shortly after so I guess it
was the right call given that that
happened but in reality a wood frame
house like this is one of the safest
places to be in an earthquake the scale
of what we're seeing is grossly
exaggerated in this clip the huge fall
scriptures popping up all over the place
how they're trying to outrun the seismic
waves in their car which is impossible
because they're too fast an earthquake
occurs when a fault that's been under
tremendous stress suddenly begins to
slip one side of the fault
moving relative to the other side and
that causes a generation of seismic
waves we could get P waves or the first
thing we feel followed by S waves and
followed by a surface waves and if
you're far from an earthquake a surface
wave which is a rolling kind of motion
it's typically the main thing that you
feel so you do have the rolling motion
of the earth but we're talking about
centimeters not meters you know we're
talking much smaller scales of
destruction than what we're seeing in
this movie this seems pretty unrealistic
I mean the one thing I liked about it
that they the family originally did the
right thing we've been completely undone
when they just had this over the top
ground motions that destroyed what would
have been probably a pretty safe place
to be in the earthquake
so we're in Antarctica scientists are
drilling ice cores which is something
that we do there is a tremendous amount
of information you can get from ancient
ice cores in Antarctic about climate
about weather about atmospheric
conditions and then like a good crazy
scientist who's been spending his life
collecting data
he jumps across the crevasse to try and
save some of the ice cores the day after
tomorrow is in some ways the best of the
really crazy disaster movies we do see
ice shelves breaking off in Antarctica
enormous ice shelves the size of the
states and part as a result of
human-caused climate change and as
temperatures go up we're beginning to
see fracturing of those shelves sitting
mostly on water at the moment and that
may accelerate the movement of land ice
into the oceans and that's what raises
sea level the speed we see here is not
realistic what's happening here is a
very fast crevasse forming and the ice
shelf moving quickly it's typically a
little bit slower than that but that's
what we're seeing here
what's happening
in the movie volcano it's so hot hid the
rubber on his sneakers is melting he's
struggling to move as he carries an
injured person off of the subway car wow
there's like lava just flowing down from
somewhere windows are breaking oh and
there's just you know there's just lava
everywhere flames it's really far and
he's got this guy on his back
oh he jumps as far as he can as far as I
know about the interaction between human
body and lava that seems realistic if
you're in a situation where there's a
slow-moving lava flow you can get fairly
close and it's not going to immediately
kill you it is realistic of stepping
into lava would kill you so as far as I
know it seems he's possible using
concrete barriers to stop a lava flow
and using water to stop a lava flow both
of these things have been done in the
real world you can sometimes use
concrete barriers to divert the lava
that's a little bit easier than um just
stopping it cuz it's gonna keep coming
but it's been done in Hawaii and in
Italy so in the movie it's depicted that
there is a volcano right under Los
Angeles and just to be clear there is
not a volcano right under Los Angeles um
there are places in the world where you
do get volcanoes but Los Angeles is not
one of those places here in LA it's one
of several possibilities
it's an iconic scene cow flying by
McKenna doesn't look all that perturb
they're wondering about the same cow or
different cow probably the scene that
everyone remembers from this movie there
is a lot of things that get you know
sucked up into these and distributed
around so including including livestock
the one quibble I have with this scene
is that when I first see the cow it go
is going one way and then the cow next
time I see it is going the other way
that would make sense if they're driving
right through the tornado I guess but it
looks like the tornado is off to the
side so I mean tornadoes are just gonna
suddenly switch direction that would not
be realistic but overall you know
livestock we think that's reasonable no
in the National Weather Service
you know contributed to some technical
advice and ideas to the filmmakers and I
think a lot of what's shown here shows
that natural evolution and trying to
better understand these systems
one of the fundamental characteristics
of almost all of these disaster movies
is that they try to build on things that
could be plausible but to a more extreme
sense and so the movie starts with a
series of clips from real extreme events
flooding tornadoes drying out of
reservoirs the worry of course is that
we are now modifying the climate in a
way that will make these more extreme
events even more damaging to
civilization and now it's transitioning
into massive CGI storms heatwave and
Madrid that kills millions of people and
the global response the world is coming
together and producing what in the
business we call geoengineering
Engineering options for mitigating the
consequences of human influence on the
climate and they're launching satellites
most of the geoengineering that we're
talking about now is really just talk
there are ideas of things that we can do
one could argue that a massive tree
planting campaign or building sea walls
is small-scale geoengineering but the
scale of the geoengineering described in
Geo Storm the planetary satellite
systems
that's not our near future
in the movie The Corrs we're just flying
right into monuments oh oh they're
crashing into windows
oh now it's all Hitchcockian everyone's
fleeing so that one of the premises of
the movie the core is that the outer
core of the earth has stopped spinning
so therefore there's no longer any
magnetic field so if there's no magnetic
field on earth a compass wouldn't work
and birds use the magnetic field to
migrate so they use it to find the
direction when they're migrating the
problem with this clip is that the birds
would still be able to see even without
a magnetic field I shouldn't just be
flying into buildings and statues for no
reason
Edwards navigate I say no no no the
long-range stuff
here's a world where something has gone
horribly wrong and it's a world of dust
a world of bad weather a world of crop
failure historically we've seen periods
when on a regional scale there have been
massive dust storms the famous Dust Bowl
in the 30s in the United States there
was a consequence partly of a very
severe multi-year drought in the great
plains of the US combined with at the
time
bad farming practices whether or not
that could happen at a global scale if
we're irresponsible with the climate and
with our human practices agricultural
practices industrial practices I guess
there's an open question Tom's score
simply isn't high enough Matthew
McConaughey's an engineer is a pilot in
a world now that he's told doesn't need
engineers they need farmers good farmers
like you and again there's a comment in
the scene we didn't run out of
television screens and planes we ran out
of food and there is a tension between
using resources in general for basic
needs versus resources for more advanced
technology that's already attention but
we also know that we could grow a lot
more food with a lot less water we could
use efficient irrigation systems we
don't have to over pump our groundwater
unsustainably we can grow crops that are
more water efficient rather than water
intensive this is the only habitable
planet we know of if we make it
uninhabitable
we're screwed we can't go somewhere else
now he can because they have a spaceship
that lets them do that but that's not
the world we live in today
Nelson's Torchy's whole crop light
they're saying it's the last harvest for
okra
ever okay well to have a sharknado you
need sharks number one the next thing
you have to do is you have to change the
weather in Southern California and then
you need a tornado you don't see these
over the ocean that often you need to
suck the sharks up into the tornado
check and now to really have the drama
you need a city that you can deposit
these sharks out of the tornado in Los
Angeles happens to be a conveniently
located so you're basically saying that
if we they accept all of that all of
that correct this could be a realistic
realistic of the ones five quoting
reverb scream great can't just wait here
and wait for sharks to rain down on us
again yeah so this was a particularly
bad storm hurricane and interacting with
mid-latitude weather what you're seeing
here is the attempt of the Coast Guard
who's being called in to do an at-sea
rescue it really gives you I think a
good sense just how difficult these
operations are under these conditions
credit to the Coast Guard that they do
that so this was you know not that
untypical of an Atlantic hurricane they
start to gain latitude and recurve and
typically will dissipate and become part
of the more mid-latitude structure and
those will be some strong winds and
things like that but every once in a
while they get trapped in sort of this
own what you call maybe more of a barrel
that kind of environment there you know
and they're able to really that's what
happened in this case here so it started
off as kind of any other hurricane ended
up being a very unusual storm when it
was at high latitude and probably more
dangerous than you typically see our
computer weather models are pretty
sophisticated
they do a pretty good job of showing you
where these dangerous areas are going to
be you know if you're a seasoned Mariner
you know working up there and you've
seen these things over your lifetime
when something anomalous like this comes
along you know maybe you're not quite as
willing to back off and I've done this
this is my livelihood I know how to
handle myself drive right through it
every once in a while something's going
to come along and surprise you and I
believe this was a case of that kind of
happening I think it's an accurate
depiction of the challenges faced with
at sea search and rescue operations and
extreme conditions absolutely this is
where they separate the men from the
boys so here we have a violently
erupting volcano and there are volcanic
bombs being extruded and hitting things
volcano bombs are a thing when have an
eruption you can have the lava coming
out of the volcano violently and then as
it's traveling through the air it cools
and hardens and they even tend to form
aerodynamic shapes because they're
curling through the air however Pompeii
did not have volcanic bombs the city was
actually remarkably well preserved the
buildings and such so just in the
archaeological evidence we don't believe
that Mount Vesuvius when it erupted in
79 AD had this type of feature but it
was a very violent eruption in fractions
of a second killed the inhabitants just
from the shoe shine and basically froze
that city in time as it was buried in 80
feet of ash the actual incidence of
volcanic bombs is not true but an
explosive eruption at Vesuvius killing
all these people very violently very
suddenly that's all absolutely true and
did happen
service
the classic story Noah the earth is
covered in storms they built the ark and
now all the non-believers want to get on
board but here comes the water there are
indications in the geologic record of a
massive flood that occurred in Sumerian
times three or four thousand BC that
resulted from a geologic event that
released a big body of water that caused
the huge flood in the Middle East not a
global flood but a massive flood that
probably was then passed down through
word of mouth through the legends and
the myths of the people who live there
he wouldn't get those bursts of water
from the ground but extreme rain and
flooding is common we live on a water
planet 97% of the world's waters in the
oceans and there's water in our rivers
and lakes and there's water in the
atmosphere and it's cycles we get
evaporation formation of clouds
condensations rain and snow back to the
oceans runoff to the oceans there is a
lot of land ice in Antarctica and
Greenland but not enough to cover the
surface of the earth if all of the land
ice melted fall of the water were in the
oceans it would raise sea level very
substantially but even there only 100
feet at most and so land above that
level would still be out of the oceans
without divine intervention there's not
enough water to completely cover the
earth the storm cannot be stopped
but it can be survived this is based on
real events this is Thailand and about
500 kilometers away we've had a
magnitude 9 earthquake happen and has
unleashed a tsunami in all directions
I think the scene is brilliant for a
number of reasons number one you should
see the animals all of our I witness
reports of tsunamis impacting usually
involve the animals recognizing that
something's not right is this war wave
this leading wave of the tsunami
approaches of coastline it makes noise
sort of loud and I think they did a nice
job showing that the next thing is that
you see or the palm trees go down and
that really is the first indication that
there is something bad is happening
your natural warning signs are your best
indicators of a tsunami we feel strong
shaking and it lasts for some duration
go to high ground this has generated 500
kilometers away they wouldn't have felt
any shaking there's almost nothing they
could do so here comes the water but
what it's doing is it's taking out
mostly the ground floor so if you had
had been conditioned enough to be able
to get up one or better two floors most
of that water you know is going to get
below you you know that would have been
a good evacuation after this event we
now under the UN have a comprehensive
international forecast and warning
system and this type of tsunami will
likely not happen again in this way
because of the advanced warnings now
again it but it was too late for them we
had to learn the lesson unfortunately
not only is that clip exceptionally
realistic if someone were to ask me
what's it like to go through a tsunami I
think I would refer them to this movie
it's that detailed and that accurate
so we're gonna Park in New York City it
appears ordinary-looking breeze but in
fact it's a very menacing breeze because
that's what's carrying some sort of
toxin or chemical that is being emitted
by plants to turn humans into suicidal
zombies police officer has just shot
himself another zombie person is getting
out of the car walking over to the gun
though don't do it basically having
their revenge on the human race for
probably good reason and decided to make
us off ourselves there plenty of plants
that have all sorts of psychotropic and
properties that's some people may know
from direct experience and there were
plants that will hurt you if you eat
them or touch them I think the closest
thing to this is there is a fungus that
will cause ants to climb to the top of
blades of grass that makes the ant in a
way suicidal at least this amplifies the
ANA it climbs the top of the blade
grounds everywhere so that's like the
closest thing I'm trying really hard to
find something related as plausible now
that's all I got
clearly this is complete nonsense but
you know the earth is resilient and even
if humans don't make it for whatever
reason
plants likely will what
this is one of many movies with dam
failures water is a powerful thing
and I guess we have a bank robbery going
on here there's Morgan Freeman things
are erupting everywhere there goes the
ban as part of our water system we build
big dams we've learned over the last
hundred years how to build really big
dams and sometimes they fail and when
they fail really bad things happen so
the way dam failures typically work is
there's a weak spot either in the dam
itself that's overwhelmed by a massive
flood upstream or there's something with
the geologic formation that the dam is
built in or if the dam was built to the
wrong standards and once you have a
little failure you get a big failure
because the power of water is so
overwhelming it punches through any
weakness and I think this is probably
not an unrealistic depiction of a big
dam failure
exactly
we have very active super cell type of
tornados here through three
it Drive really a big fire now and a big
fire firenado there are plenty of people
who run around trying to film these
disasters or have tram yeah that would
turn that there would be no mistake yeah
there it goes
tornadoes come from what are called
supercell thunderstorms what happens
there's a lot of up and a lot of dam
that's associated with that thunderstorm
the air is coming down that air spreads
out of the surface and sometimes due to
friction and other forces you'll start
to see it rotate every once in a while
that rotation gets literally sucked up
into the supercell which is also
rotating in the same direction and when
that happens we have seen fire tornadoes
associated primarily with wildfires
where you get significant temperature
differences you have a fire you have a
lot of convective activity fire
tornadoes are a thing flying debris is
the big problem with tornadoes so most
would want to have some sort of
underground shelter where you're
shielded from that if you can't you want
to find an interior room that isn't
going to be susceptible to things flying
in windows the idea that you can have
multiple torn attic outbreaks
and I think if you were happy to hit
something on fire like that it would
suck the fire so I would say this is not
a completely unreasonable depiction of a
severe severe tornado out
one of the themes of all of these
disaster movies which some of us love to
watch is whether or not humans will
survive how we'll survive what the
threats are the challenge our ability to
survive and we're not worried about all
life on the planet going extinct because
of these kinds of things we're worried
about humans and whether or not we're
gonna be smart enough to foresee and
prevent the disasters that either were
responsible for or that we might see
coming as a species just don't have it
within our capacity to look forward
enough to get in front of these problems
we're very good at dealing and we have
no other choice I'm gonna try to quote
Winston Churchill here and you can
really count on the Americans to do the
right thing once they've exhausted every
other alternative I have a sense that
when push comes to shove and we really
have to step up and make a difference we
may just figure it out
for some of these things it's time to
step up now
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