Two German managers will face off in the Champions League final for the first time since 2012/13,
when Jupp Heynckes’ Bayern beat Jurgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund. Bayern secured a treble
that year and Hansi Flick will be looking to achieve the same feat in Lisbon on Sunday.
Thomas Tuchel has guided Paris Saint-Germain to their first Champions League final ever,
having previously gone furthest in 1994/95, when they were beaten semi-finalists, losing
to AC Milan. Flick has already made history – no coach has previously won their first
seven Champions League fixtures – and both teams are unbeaten in their last twelve games.
Here are three areas where the match may be decided.
Bayern defend with a high line, looking to compress the pitch to aid their midfield and
wide pressing structure. With Manuel Neuer sweeping behind, and the excellent pace of
Alphonso Davies and David Alaba, this generally works well, but they can be exposed.
On the right-hand side, the pairing of Joshua Kimmich and Jerome Boateng is not as quick
and they are shielded by midfielder Leon Goretzka, who is expected to be more progressive in
his movements up the pitch.
As this Champions League defensive action map shows, Bayern push up on the right and
try to cut off opposition attacks at source, while on the left, the pace of Alaba and Davies
means they can recover if the ball goes over the top.
This Champions League shot assist map, showing where passes that precede shots originate
but excluding corners, demonstrates that Bayern are vulnerable to long balls into the channels
on both sides. They concede mostly in the middle from pull backs from the right hand
side – stars show goals – because the defence hasn’t recovered.
In Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, and Angel Di Maria, PSG have the pace to exploit this positioning.
Neymar dropping off will naturally bring the Bayern defence forwards anyway and, should
Bayern be turned over while Kimmich is in the attack, PSG can get in behind on Bayern’s
right.
There is an argument for bringing in Benjamin Pavard at right back, despite the fact he’s
coming back to full fitness – his greater pace would help defend the right flank, and
Kimmich would offer more cover as a midfielder than Goretzka on the right-hand side of the
pivot. It’s a gamble, though, and one that Flick may want to avoid.
PSG fielded two very different midfields for the games against Atalanta and RB Leipzig.
In the former, Tuchel opted for a more destructive approach, with Idrissa Gueye and Ander Herrera
flanking Marquinhos as the pivot. Against Leipzig, Leandro Paredes came in for Gueye
and excelled as a press-breaking passer. As his passing map from that game shows, he passed
often to the left back and left centre back, but key are the passes to Neymar, dropping
in, and Thiago Silva at right centre back.
In Paredes, PSG had a progressive midfield passer who allowed Neymar to drop off and
play between the lines, rather than amongst the opposition as he had to against Atalanta.
Bayern will press hard and Paredes’ ability to draw it out and penetrate the lines will
be crucial.
Herrera could have an important role too. Given the importance of Thiago Alcantara’s
passing to Bayern’s build up play, Tuchel might deploy Herrera with a brief to man mark
the Bayern midfielder. Herrera is a smart, disciplined footballer and this approach could
help hamper Bayern’s build-up.
And, with Marco Verratti coming back to fitness, Tuchel has options. How he uses them will
decide PSG’s approach to progressing the ball.
While Robert Lewandowski is Bayern’s main goal threat, Thomas Muller has returned to
form under Flick and his movement will be crucial. In defence, he can press Paredes
and help tie up PSG’s left flank, but it’s in attack where he’s most dangerous. This
passes received and movement map shows that he’s a real hub for Bayern, capable of taking
the ball and quickly moving it on before finding a new dangerous position. While he mostly
operates on the right, he’ll drift across to the left half space to receive the ball
from the left side of Bayern’s attack, and pop up in the box alongside Lewandowski to find shooting chances.
This poses an issue for PSG. They have to watch Muller, but his ability to find space
could be very disruptive for Marquinhos, the PSG holding midfielder, or it could draw the
centre backs forward. Juan Bernat will likely push up on Kimmich or Pavard – Mbappe will
want to be high to receive long passes and PSG’s midfield will match Bayern’s. And
this could leave space for Serge Gnabry to attack the right channel as he did against
Lyon, getting in behind Bernat to pose a threat and run at Presnel Kimpembe.
Muller’s fluidity and positional intelligence means he’s a threat whether he’s receiving
the ball or making space for others to, and PSG will have to ensure they keep tabs on
him without disrupting their defensive structure.