Germany, Italy, and Japan.
The trifecta of World War Two’s Axis Powers.
While they would eventually lose the war, the Axis started off with the appearance of
a threateningly formidable trio, and they almost managed to convince some of the war’s
neutral nations to swing over to their side.
Bribes from the Germans and prior support from Axis powers had a handful of countries
weighing the idea of joining the alliance; although, for the most part, this wouldn’t
really happen.
However, more nations than many people realize almost joined the Axis…so who were they?
And why?...
Spain may be one of the most well-known non-belligerents who came inches away from signing off to join
the Axis.
Still, the case isn’t quite that black and white, and it starts back with the Spanish
Civil War, during which both Germany and Italy had supported the side of Francisco Franco,
who now controlled the Spanish state.
Sharing some similar ideologies and having already established a form of friendship,
Spain had a bias in favor of the Axis from the get-go of the war, but Franco nevertheless
declared strict neutrality from the start.
This still didn’t change the fact that Franco himself preferred Hitler and Mussolini over
the Allies, but his own government was split between pro-German and pro-British officials.
The split was amplified by the fact that Spain on one hand was deeply indebted to the Axis
for their prior help in the civil war, yet obtained much of their necessary imports from
the West, namely the United States.
However, as the German side appeared to be making early headway, Franco started to replace
some of his Anglophile officials with Germanophiles and in the late spring of 1940, announced
that he would be open to joining the Axis under certain conditions.
Some of these conditions, which would be made clear in the following anti-Allied propaganda
the Spanish media began pumping out, were the return of Gibraltar to Spain in addition
to the gift of French Morocco and Cameroon - the latter having actually belonged to the
Germans before the French, hence throwing a wrench in the plan to work with the Axis.
Hitler wouldn’t initially do much to assure Spain of their demands, but he would counter
by mandating the use of Spanish Morocco and the Canaries for German military bases.
Now it was Franco’s turn to be put off by such requests, and the prospects of Spain
actually joining the war appeared slimmer yet again.
An essential stalemate of negotiations would ensue for the next few months and eventually
lead to a face-to-face meeting between Franco and Hitler, which didn’t exactly go well
either.
The meeting occurred on October 23, 1940, in Hendaye, France, and ended with the Fuhrer
telling his Italian counterpart of Franco, "I prefer to have three or four of my own
teeth pulled out than to speak to that man again!"
Ultimately, there seemed to be less and less of a reason for Spain to become a belligerent
nation and Hitler was only angered by the hefty demands Franco made.
Even when threatened with occupation by Hitler, Franco refused to back down, either due to
pure stubbornness or because he was actually intentionally sabotaging the alliance to keep
his country out of the conflict.
Future attempts by both Hitler and Mussolini to force Franco’s hand would continue to
fail, but then again, the Axis weren’t the only ones trying to bribe the Spaniards…
The Allies knew that Spain had a high chance of joining their rivals, and Britain’s ambassador
in Madrid, Sir Samuel Hoare, stated bluntly that “Spain's entry in the war will depend
on our quick action”.
This would eventually lead MI6 to spend a whopping modern-day equivalent of $200 million
on bribes to keep Spain neutral throughout the war.
And while it appears that this, among other factors, worked fairly well, Spain wasn’t
the only nation on the brink of joining the Germans and friends…
For quite opposite reasons, the Brits nearly pushed Iraq into an alliance with the Axis.
Prior to 1932, Iraq was controlled by the Brits via the British Mandate of Mesopotamia,
and the Anglo-Iraqi Treaty signed at the end to grant Iraq independence was viewed with
heavy scrutiny by Iraqis who still felt that they were under British control.
These Iraqis would finally be heard in 1940 when Rashid Ali became Prime Minister and
began to consider the idea of joining the Axis due to his personal opposition to Britain.
A sudden spiral of political turmoil however would oust Rashid but result in an eventual
coup d’etat to restore his seat.
This time around, Rashid Ali launched a crackdown on all pro-British citizens and politicians
in Iraq and pushed to restrict British military movement through the country that had previously
been allowed by the earlier-signed treaty.
The situation soon resulted into armed conflict between the Iraqis and Brits, but given that
Britain was heavily preoccupied elsewhere, Iraq became a low priority.
Still, the clash would result in an armistice and the re-establishment of a pro-British
administration, which dashed any hopes of the Axis gaining an Iraqi ally.
Nevertheless, nearby Turkey wasn’t entirely off the table…
In June of 1941, The German-Turkish Treaty of Friendship was signed and was intended
to establish 10 years of non-aggression between the signing nations.
By now, Hitler had already made a promise to the Turks that he had no intentions of
invading Turkey and instead was looking for a friendship.
While Turkey readily accepted the non-aggression agreement, there was no obvious need for it
to join the war on either side, despite pressure from the Axis and Allies to do just that.
Eventually, in the final stretch of the war, Turkey would join the Allies, entirely breaking
off ties with Germany and the Axis and ending any suspicions of the Turks potentially becoming
part of Hitler’s alliance - regardless of any friendship treaty…
Looking back in the direction of Iraq, however, neighboring Iran was also a concern of the
Allies.
Despite officially being a neutral country, Iran’s Shah at the time appeared to lean
in favor of Germany.
This didn’t go unnoticed by the Allies, however, especially Britain, which was worried
it would affect their use of Iranian oil.
With Germany invading the USSR and Iran eyeing the Axis side as possible friends, the Allies
decided to invade Iran in what they considered a preventative measure.
Despite putting up a good Naval fight, the whole of Iran’s forces were caught off guard
and outnumbered by the attack, thus eventually succumbing to the Allied aggression.
This took out the Shah and ended Iran’s chances of joining Germany, if it had ever
really even wanted to in the first place…
By now, there was really only about one other country that may have joined the Axis, although
still never came as close as Spain - its neighbor.
Portugal wasn’t necessarily a big fan of the Germans but its leader, Antonio Salazar,
was fond of his neighbor Francisco Franco.
Salazar had previously supported Franco, alongside Mussolini and Hitler, in the Spanish Civil
War, and the latter two leaders were, in fact, fairly fond of Salazar.
That being said, just as Spain had done, Portugal declared neutrality with the onset of the
war, although Salazar had been accused of showing economic and material favor to the
Axis.
Still, the Portuguese leader feared going to war with the Allies, especially considering
the fact that Portugal was continuing to uphold the centuries-old Treaty of Windsor which
maintained a long-standing alliance between the Portuguese and Brits.
However, Salazar also feared entering the war on behalf of the Allies because he knew
that his neighbor, despite being indebted to him, was a good friend to the Germans and
Italians and thus could assist in an invasion by the Germans into Portugal.
In the end, this fear kept Portugal in the middle, although that may have drastically
changed if Salazar’s friend next door had actually struck a deal with Hitler and Mussolini…
When all was said and done, the Axis can be summed up as Germany, Italy, Japan, and in
lesser roles, new additions such as Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Croatia.
While some nations made the ultimate decision to join the alliance, others would stop at
consideration.
In some cases, such as Iraq and Iran, the decision of who to join or if to join one
side was made for them by invading Allied forces.
In other instances, such as the Iberian neighbors under Salazar and Franco, fears of invasion
and a lack of otherwise incentives led them to remain neutral, or at least non-belligerent.
Even bribes of regained territory wouldn’t be enough, although bribes in the form of
$200 million dollars just may have been.
Ultimately, we will never know how the war would have changed if Spain, Turkey, Iran,
or any of the “almost” nations had pulled the trigger and joined the war alongside the
Germans and their allies.
But to see which and why the belligerent nations attempted to persuade some countries and not
others to join the war can tell us a bit about the war itself and the perspective of those
directly involved.
But, nevertheless, some of the most relevant countries in the world today remained as simply
“maybes” in the second world war…