For Tottenham, the thought of losing Harry Kane is inconceivable.
And yet, with the player seeking a move and plenty of clubs reportedly interested in signing him,
it’s a situation they may have to confront before the current transfer window ends.
But how would they replace a centre-forward upon whom they depend so much?
To start, it’s important to quantify that dependence.
Kane is an incredibly rounded goalscorer. At the end of the 2020-21 Premier League season,
he had scored 166 goals in the competition at an average of 0.68 per game. 104 of those goals
have been with his right foot, 35 have been with his left and 26 have been scored with his head.
Those goals have come from lots of different positions, too,
and there isn’t really an area from which he’s reluctant to shoot.
But Kane is more than that. In 2020-21, he was the assist leader in the Premier League
and, over time, his creative effect on Spurs has become as important as his goals.
Assists/90 – 0.36 (97th percentile) Switches – 1.36 (93rd percentile)
Passes into final third – 2.46 (95th percentile) Progressive passes – 3.24 (92nd percentile)
Goal-creating actions – 0.65 (91st percentile) Passes completed (long) – 2.66. (89th percentile)
He’s an excellent short, medium and long-range passer, who advances the ball
rather than simply laying it off. His switches of play are also quick and flat,
allowing full-backs or wingers to drive into space, and – although incalculable – his
off-the-ball running creates as many chances for his teammates as it does for him.
Added to which, he’s a zonal marker at defensive set-pieces and also one of the
most reliable penalty-takers in the world. Both roles would obviously need filling.
More importantly though, replacing Kane would
also involve recreating the team dynamics to which he’s essential.
The partnership with Son Heung-min, for instance, which depends on quick, incisive interchanges,
penetrating passes that make use of the South Korean’s pace behind a defence,
as well as the more vertical sequences which spring the South Korean into space.
More generally, any replacement would need the mobility and speed of thought to function on the
counter-attack – during which Kane is often required to play critical pass or make final
runs - as well as being both a playmaker and a target during more static phases,
close to and inside the penalty box.
The bad news is that no such replacement exists;
players who might perform a similar function are beyond Tottenham’s reach.
So, rather than trying to find a like-for-like replacement, we’ve found three players,
each of whom offers a different type of solution and would represent a different sort of transfer.
Smart, expensive and long-term: Andre Silva – Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt’s failure to qualify for the Champions League
might make Andre Silva more affordable than he would otherwise be,
but a prolific Bundesliga season would still see him command a big fee – particularly as rumours of
a €30m release clause have been denied by his agents and, at 25, his prime is ahead of him.
Silva is a very different type of forward to Kane – more of a penalty-box
finisher – but the quality of his goalscoring and first-time finishing should suit Tottenham.
They have good delivery from full-back and a range of players who can create
shot-taking opportunities from central positions both of which would suit
Silva’s excellent ability in the air and his capacity to get shots off under pressure.
He’s much more of a receiver than Kane, meaning that he inhabits space that progressive passers
like to target. While he lacks creativity himself, that could be spun as a positive,
either because he might necessitate Dele Alli’s reintegration into the first-team
or improve the tangible contribution of the midfield playmakers.
Quicker effect, smaller fee, shorter-term: Duvan
Zapata – Atalanta.
Duvan Zapata has already turned thirty, meaning that while he would command a smaller fee,
but would have little to no re-sale value. Having scored a combined 56 Serie A goals
across the last three seasons, though, he’s an attractive short-term option.
His creative contribution would not be a match for Kane, but the range of situations
from which he’s dangerous and the types of goals he scores makes him roughly comparable.
Having been highly successful in a physical demanding Atalanta system, he also possesses the
mobility and size to succeed in English football, and a Tottenham team which seems likely to become
more counter-attacking under its new management. He’s also better than Silva at finding space and
receiving passes in the penalty box, which would make him largely a front-foot player,
but one capable of reawakening some of the Spurs playmakers who have been lost in Kane’s shadow.
Big fee, big risk, big potential reward: Dusan Vlahovic – Fiorentina
At 21, Vlahovic has just enjoyed his first truly productive season.
It casts him awkwardly, as a player of obvious potential
but who perhaps lacks the tangible evidence to reassure anyone capable of paying a big fee.
So, any bid would be speculative, but he promises to eventually become the
most rounded player on this list, and probably the closest to Kane in style.
Vlahovic can look ungainly, but that doesn’t prohibit either his accuracy in front of goal
or his strength in the air. And, while his passing and creativity remains minimal, both
in effect and volume, he has touches of skill in his game which could be developed into something
more substantial. His contribution outside the box is still quite basic, nothing like Kane’s,
but he’s been described as a highly coachable player by those who have managed him and that side
of his game could be developed. A good coaching staff could create something very special.
He seems equipped with the right attitude, too. Vlahovic has plenty of self-belief,
reportedly used to liken himself to a young Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but he has a long list of
admirers. Serbian coach Dragan Stoijkovic has spoken positively about his maturity,
while Cesare Prandelli, the former Fiorentina and Italy head-coach, has spoken of his work ethic.
Clearly Vlahovic would come with plenty of risk, but given Tottenham’s inability to attract elite,
ready-made players, their best option in replacing Harry Kane – should they
need to – might be to forge a new one from a rawer set of attributes.