Armed, unmanned and high tech drones or remotely piloted
aircraft are becoming a ubiquitous battlefield presence.
And frankly, I think we're in the middle of an underground
drone arms race and larger drones like the mq nine Reaper,
as well as medium sized drones such as the Turkish TB two and
the Chinese wing loonged II have become a must have item for
militaries worldwide. At the moment we've seen we see like
over 100 states worldwide are using military drones and that
number is growing significantly in Libya, Nagorno Karabakh, and
during the US Global War on Terror. armed drones have been
active across the globe. These drones can fly 1000s of feet
high and rain down destruction with pinpoint accuracy with
little warning. But who makes these high tech weapons of war?
It is not very easy to develop armed drones but it also is not
quite as difficult as say developing new nuclear weapons.
And who is buying them.
Drone technology isn't that new. During World War Two the US
remotely piloted A B 17 as part of a test program and during the
Cold War drones were used to spy on other countries. The SR-71
even had a rocket powered drone that it could deploy in flight
to take photos to be retrieved later. Drones date back much
longer to early flight but like the modern drones basically
trace their origin to the 80s. The convergence of satellite
technology composites and computer miniaturization allowed
for the rise of drones like the General Atomics mq one predator.
General Atomics, which includes ga aeronautical Systems Inc, are
one of the leading producers of unmanned systems in the world.
They currently produce the mq nine Reaper as well as the naval
version, the sea Guardian among other unmanned systems. In the
2000s. The predator was armed with missiles, which quietly
started a new arms race. It had the ability to stay overhead for
long periods of time, and it could be controlled by a ground
station in another country. The drone became the face of us
conflicts in the Middle East. And moral and legal questions
about drone use rose from the targeted killing campaigns that
the US operates to this day. In 2001, the mq nine Reaper made
its first flight and eventually became the dominant arm drone
that the US fielded. The Reaper has a payload of 3850 pounds,
which compares to the predators 450 pounds. This means it can
carry far more missiles or bombs than the predator among other
advantages. But what will eventually replace the hundreds
of Reaper drones has yet to be revealed. One current General
Atomics aeronautical project as seen in this General Atomics
video is the Avenger the US military has not adopted the
Avenger for frontline service. The advanced drone is designed
to be stealthy and survivable against modern air defenses,
which could make it a window into what the drone of the
future will look like that replaces the mq nine, the US
government the US military will never fight another war without
drone technology ever again. But unfortunately, I feel like as a
whole, we are no longer have the advantage. countries around the
world have taken notice of the investment the US is pouring
into larger drones. And they've made efforts to buy these game
changing drones themselves.
The US has been judicious about what countries that allows
General Atomics to sell to. We have put too much of an emphasis
on restricting exports to countries that are in need of
this technology countries that are friendly to us because we've
wanted to maintain that airspace dominance. The mq nine requires
a ground station satellite links and maintenance for its high
tech hardware and software. And this means the mq nines
ballooning price point of around $32 million has dissuaded some
perspective buyers allies like Australia have shown interest in
buying the mq nine B and the US State Department cleared a $1.6
billion deal in late April for 12, Sky guardians and all
associated equipment but the demand for more affordable
drones hasn't subsided, leading to others filling the needs of
the market. What's interesting to note is that for many years,
about a decade or so before, the US and Israel basically had a
monopoly over more sophisticated armed drone systems. And neither
of them were really keen on exporting, Israel was one of the
earliest adopters of drone technology and also one of the
first exporters' however these exported drones are generally
unarmed, making them less useful against military targets. And
partly because there was this almost export ban. A number of
other actors started to develop their own domestic armed drones,
most notably China and Turkey. China's Chengdu aircraft
industry group has produced the wing loong series of drones. The
price point of the wing long to which runs an estimated one to
$2 million has made it up
Popular addition to militaries in Africa and the Middle East,
Russia is likely to try to eventually export its homegrown
Orion drone, and Turkey which has made a strong push in recent
decades to build an aerospace industry has produced one of the
most infamous medium sized drones. The Baykar defense
produced TB2 to which is controlled by line of sight has
made an impact in Nagorno Karabakh and in Libya. Several
countries including Ukraine, which signed a $69 million
contract for armed TB2s in 2019 have ordered the Turkish drone,
and more potential buyers could be wooed by the highlight reel
of the TB2 taking our modern tanks in real world situations.
These highlight reels of destruction haven't been all
upside for the new entry to the armed drone market.
Some armed drones have been regulated as missiles under
international law. I think our policymakers need to adapt the
policy for the 21st century and understand that there's many
different actors using drone technology and they're using
them in different ways. The Missile Technology Control
Regime or mtcr restricts the export of missiles capable of
carrying a 500 kilogram payload at least 300 kilometers. This is
why some drones are considered missiles under the mtcr. The US
has previously limited what drones can be sold to other
countries due to the mtcr. Sort of the big drone export news
changed last summer
when the Trump administration decided to loosen some
restrictions on what the United States could expert the Biden
administration has so far upheld that relaxed restriction Canada
and Germany are two countries that have banned the export of
key materials used to make armed drones in Turkey and Iran
respectively. In the end, drones are just you know, model
airplanes with great sensors on them. And all of these are, you
know, dual use and simply used in the civilian realm. And in
fact, the drones have risen enormously in the civilian realm
over the last five to 10 years. And so so controlling their
export is is really difficult. And I would also note that it is
not that difficult to to develop these systems. What happens when
everyone can buy a quadcopter or a fixed wing drone for a couple
100 bucks. Some manufacturers of non military drones have put in
safeguards, like geo fencing to prevent drones from being
weaponized. geo fencing is a preset limitation on where drone
can be flown. airports are commonly fenced off to prevent
drones from interfering with airport operations. Civilian
drones can also be used for all kinds of really helpful
applications from agricultural use to checks and controls etc.
So how do you control those kinds of things, there are also
concerns about the ethical problems with using armed
drones. So for example, the large scale drone campaign
started by bush and expanded under Obama.
We saw the increased use of armed drones for targeted
executions and increasing numbers of civilians who were
killed in those kind of operations who didn't have any
access to accountability and in reparations, because technically
the program didn't exist.
Large armed drones aren't going away. Bayker is working on a
larger drone called the Akinci which can be satellite
controlled and has a larger payload. China also appears to
be working towards fielding a newly developed armed drone. But
advances in technology are allowing smaller drones to
tackle missions that previously would have only been possible
with a larger drone. So when I see conflicts, like what's
taking place in Syria, or with Russia, starting to use these
all over the world, and not even just the type of drones that you
would think are multimillion dollar drones, we're talking
about drones that a kid can purchase off of the Internet,
and anyone that has savvy knowledge of how to turn these
things into deadly weapons has the ability. Unfortunately,
these days to do something bad with it. Drone swarms are dozens
or hundreds of drones operating in unison that can overwhelm
defenses. And loitering munitions like the Herot which
is produced in Israel are blurring the line between cruise
missile and drone and with regard to geese, loitering
munitions or camicazi, drones or whatever you want to call them.
These are primarily at this point produced by Israel. Both
are systems that basically go into the air they they loiter
for a while, search for a target and then dive into the car to
target and explode with it. This is why they're called Kamikaze
drones because they you know, they don't come back they they
destroy themselves new types of armed drones, potential civilian
casualties and the legal gray area of targeted killings are
all issues that the drone industry will need to contend
with in the coming years. The biggest challenge at the moment,
how does technology which is always two steps ahead of
regulation, how can we ensure that it doesn't get out of hand