- What I've actually built here is an interactive
kind of a dynamic Model 3 production ramp.
So this uses that logarithmic S curve growth,
and this is the model that Elon and everyone talks about
when it comes to manufacturing.
This is how essentially it works for the Model 3.
Now with this,
what we have, and let me see if I can
zoom in a little bit for your.
Hopefully that works better.
You're able to punch in a time value
and then a numerical value for your starting point.
So in this case I have January 7th of 2018 at 1000.
So this is how many cars they produced per week.
And this is based on their previous statement.
Then the updated one, as of today, 04/09,
I'm putting it at 2500.
This was using the Bloomberg tracker,
which I believe was at 2400 as of last night.
So we can put it at 2400 if you guys want
or just put it at 2500, whatever.
The point of this is that you can play with these numbers
and see what the results are.
Now the big question here is the peak.
How many cars per week do you think is really possible
in that one line at the Fremont factory?
Tesla has stated,
and I think there's a little bit of confusion about this,
they've stated that they want to get Model 3 production
up to 10,000 a week,
but I don't know if that's 100% in the Fremont factory,
because it's really difficult to see.
I mean, that is a double, I believe,
of what the Toyota plant was able to do
before they took it over.
Now granted, yeah, Tesla is very innovative,
and they're doing things,
they're improving upon what Toyota had done
10, 12 years ago, obviously.
However, doubling is a pretty ambitious target.
So if you believe that,
if you believe that 10,000 is the peak,
and we're currently at 2500,
and then they're at,
they're at 1000 beginning of the year.
That means that this is what the curve will look like.
And you can go at any point in the curve here
and see how many cars that they'll be producing per week.
Now I used to say that this was delivered,
but deliveries versus production is different
because the delivery process takes a bit more.
So if this were true,
if these numbers all added up and this curve
represented the true curve that
Elon and everyone talks about,
that means that in 2018 alone
they will produce around 253,000 Model 3s,
more than doubling their entire production last year.
Then in 2019 they'll be up to that 500,000 mark
just for the Model 3.
You know, if we can assume
maybe 150,000, 130,000 for S and X,
you're looking at 650,000, give or take,
in 2019 and in 2020 maybe a little bit more.
Those are some pretty big numbers
and some huge growth numbers for Tesla.
If these pan out, this means that Tesla
is truly on their way towards success.
I mean, they've come to the brink
of bankruptcy a couple times.
It's kind of how Elon likes to play it I think.
And then pulled back.
So with this, using this model,
and the math that we have here,
and I actually have a link to the model and everything
that I use to calculate this.
It looks like going into June, July 1st they'd be at 4700.
July 8th a week later they'd be at 4900,
and then July 15th they would finally crest that 5000 mark.
So two things I just shared with you there.
One is this interactive dashboard that you can go play with.
I'll put a link to it in the description
of this video after it's over.
It is on teslanomics.co.
I'll probably put a link up in the top menu there as well,
so you guys can have fun with that.
You can kind of play with it and let me know what you find.
You know, you can kind of adjust all of these things.
Like let's assume, just for argument sake,
that the peak was only 5000,
that's all they could actually reach.
Well if you change this and you hit enter
or there's a little icon there,
the entire thing will update,
and you can see exactly how it looks now.
Now they're still gonna reach it pretty quickly,
but it doesn't actually look like
they'll hit 5000 for quite a while,
if that is the true peak.
But they still would end up
producing 182,000 Model 3s in 2018 alone.
Huge numbers no matter kind of which way you look at it.
Now, if you know, maybe wanna split the difference,
let's say 7500 is what they can produce.
You can just hit update
or hit refresh there,
and you can see now we're at 223,000 Model 3s,
and they would be hitting that 5000 mark
late July, still in July.
You know, and with all of this,
just know that these are estimates.
I create these tools to kind of bring some logic
and some math to our understanding of how Tesla is doing,
whether you're an investor
or whether you're waiting on your Model 3
or whether you're a current owner,
or whatever bucket you wanna put yourself in.
So that's what these are.
This isn't to be used as a means of
buying or selling stock
or making predictions or anything real.
This is just entertainment, this is fun.
So I'll put a link to this map here,
this interactive version in the description,
and let me know what you guys think of it.
I'd love to see if you guys can find
anything interesting here.
You can adjust all these numbers.
I wanted to make it very dynamic.
That way, as the ramp moves on, so can this.
And so we don't have to keep revisiting it every time.