Jack, I'll start with you. You're your take on these numbers so
far. Hi.
I think the number on this pointing, but if you take a look.
Although the numbers are lower than the consensus expects and thought, the
consensus already expected, a market slowed down.
And in November's activity, this is not surprising because a lot of city
experienced the virus degree of lockdown during much of December November, which
definitely take a heavy toll on economic activities from production to the imam
site. So,
Jacquelyn, the other question, I guess is a follow there is when do you think
the activity numbers could be one of the same thing bottom?
And when do they respond to the reopening story?
Well, I think probably in March, we are going to see a more mature up pickup in
economic activity. And number one, China is bracing for a
new wave of infections. I think China's top epidemiologists,
that they expect that the wife to peak around and January.
So during that and around the Spring Festival, I think consumer activity
would say tapping. Secondly, we think the export sector and
also the property sector are still searching for a bottom.
And in the next few months, we think economic activity where state capital.
However, after this wave subside sometime in the spring next year, we are
likely to see more pronounced the rebound in consumer activities,
including activities in the property space.
How do you see the reopening really disrupting the economy first and
foremost? Jacqueline, and you know, how forceful
do you think policy support is going to be?
Do they still need to stimulate more if the economy is opening up?
Yeah. Yeah.
First of all, I think as a reopening, we're inevitably leads to a rise in
infection level. And some people that will have to be
held quarantined for a week, which will bring some disruptions to productivity
and to production and other activities that at the same time some people were
refraining from conducting some non-essential services out of concerns
for contracting the virus. That boy also weight on consumption and
all the activities. But also this wave subside, I think, and
consumption and activity, it's going to pick up during this time.
We think it's a policy where state crime accommodative included.
I think that monetary policy will keep a little liquidity quite flush, as
evidenced by today's net injection of em out.
At the same time, the CBO said we're work hard to pushing out credit to the
real economy, especially to policy favorite sectors like S.M.
E, which is in difficulties now. Yeah.
Jacquelin And we do understand that this economic work conference that was set to
well was said to be postponed is now back.
I don't wanna get your thoughts on that in just a moment here.
But in the meantime, let's bring in our our colleague Stephen Engle, who's here
with us in our studios to talk this through.
So this meeting, we understand, is taking place, the central economic work
conference. Yeah, that's right.
So it's held every year in December or early part of December.
They set the priorities and they're usually behind closed doors, set the
economic or GDP target for the National People's Congress that's unveiled in the
first week of March. There was speculation that it would be
postponed. Sources had told Bloomberg News earlier
this week that it would be postponed because of that Covid wave that we were
just talking about sweeping the city. Nobody wants a super spreader.
Then going through the Politburo and also the top provincial governors and
the top heads of the big economic agencies, obviously.
But it looks as though it is going ahead as planned.
Obviously, with these set of numbers that we're seeing now, the economic
recovery is fairly urgent to get domestic consumption as a top priority.
We saw that in the front page of the Shery Ahn.
Actually, it was a synopsis from someone who's a doozy that I talked about just a
few minutes ago, essentially saying the priority over the next 12 years.
This is from the central committee and also the state council is to boost
domestic consumption at a time when there is grave concern about the export
situation or just I'm just looking at t live blog and our our colleagues are
kind of talk a little bit more about that.
The statement that came out from the National Bureau of Statistics saying the
foundation for recovery, not yet stable and occurring is saying that's a pretty
interesting omission of just how fragile things are in the economy right now,
that they are saying things are still looking pretty shaky here right now.
Jacqueline, I'll bring you back. It seems like consensus is growing that,
you know, growth is going to bounce back in a big way next year.
And we're edging closer those estimates to maybe like a 5 percent growth.
Is 5 percent going to be kind of a long shot?
Is it is it easily achievable for next year?
I think 5 percent is sound reasonable and a real less take target because that
is the basis of very low growth this year.
Our forecast is this year GDP growth is only three point.
2 percent. So if next year they can achieve 5
percent. That means to your average is around 4
percent, which is materially lower than the 5.1 percent average growth achieved
in 2020 to 2021. So we don't think this is that a long
shot? Actually, we think this is actually
quite real. Let's take a economic target for 2020,
right? Right.
So they can hit the target. Just to borrow a phrase, they can hit
the target in their sleep. Would you say this upside risk to 5
percent growth next year? Well, at the moment, I would say the
risk is actually cried to a balance that would kill a little bit to the downside,
because we have concerns about external development, because our house view is
not in Q2. Next year, the U.S.
economy is going to slip into a recession and as a European economy is
already in recession. So in November, we already have very bad
export. Rose?
No, we think that there are some more WikiLeaks in store for the export
sector. At the same time, we think that policy
has turned very positive for both the property sector and all the spaces.
But it would take time to see this policy first translate into a rebound, a
economic CAC activities. And also we think the restoration of
comfort as work takes some time. So next year we think 5 percent is real.
Let's take him. But it's still face a lot of downside
risk.