Our next guest has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections from 1984
through 2012.
American University History Professor Allan Lichtman's popular vote predictions were perfect
including the 2000 election which the Supreme Court ultimately awarded to George W. Bush.
In 2016, he predicted an electoral college victory for Donald Trump who lost the popular
vote to Hillary Clinton.
Professor Lichtman joins me now from Bethesda, Maryland.
Professor Lichtman, thank you so much for joining us.
Not only are your predictions overwhelmingly correct, but you often make them very early.
Can you give us an explanation of how your model works?
(You're really analyzing the performance of the party as a whole.
The candidate is almost secondary, here.)
Amazing.
Is it too early to make a prediction for 2020 or do you have that in your pocket yet?
Because back in May, you told CNN, Donald Trump will win the 2020 election unless the
"the Democrats grow a spine and do their constitutional duty and move into an impeachment inquiry.
They've launched their inquiry.
Is that enough?
Do you think the 2020 election is
now for
the Democrats to lose?
I understand your model.
But, I do want to point out that this election is unlike any other in a variety of ways.
One of which is that you have a huge field of democratic candidates.
The party is more important than the candidate when it comes to your model.
But, do you see any variance depending on who wins the democratic nomination.
You have candidates on one side of the spectrum - Sanders and Warren versus Biden.
Will that not have any effect at all?
How much does foreign policy, for instance, policy vis-a-vis North Korea, performance
impact a candidate or a party's win for 2020 presidential election?
Finally, what are
some key factors that will shape the 2020 presidential election between now and November
2020?
Absolutely fascinating.
Professor Allan Lichtman, many thanks for your fascinating insights this morning.
We appreciate it.