In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest
solutions in the form of incoming players.
We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture. We’re concerned
only with a player’s on-field performance and their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is Arsenal, welcome to Sensible Transfers.
Arsenal are in a transitional year, again, but this time it does feel like the club is heading
in the right direction under Mikel Arteta. A summer transfer window widely derided has,
in fact, yielded some good acquisitions. Aaron Ramsdale has excelled, while Albert Sambi Lokonga
has shown himself to be a strong prospect. Martin Odegaard has built on a good loan spell to become
a key man, Ben White is finding his feet, and Takehiro Tomiyasu has been reliable.
Arsenal are vibrant and young, with youth products Smith-Rowe and Saka
leading the way. Arsenal’s minutes played are largely skewed towards the 25 and unders;
only Thomas Partey, Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
have contributed significant pitch time as ‘senior’ players.
This squad regeneration, and Arteta’s shifting between a 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 of sorts has reaped
benefits and will continue to, as the bulk of Arsenal’s squad are still years from their prime.
However, Arsenal’s results this season show that they are very much still in the Big Six,
but towards the bottom end. Looking at expected goals for and against show the disparity:
Arsenal are good to excellent against weaker sides, but crumble against the better ones.
The above numbers might suggest that defence is the area that most needs improvement,
but Arsenal have been overwhelmed in big games as much by their inability to retain
the ball and contest the midfield. So, where should Arsenal strengthen?
There is an argument here that Arsenal should do a Manchester United and find
their own Edinson Cavani. Such a leader at the top of the pitch, while also contributing goals,
could add the kind of street-smarts this team lacks against the toughest opposition,
and help shape the younger prospects. Short of signing Cavani himself, though,
it’s hard to find an analogue with that combination of skills, and, anyway, Arsenal’s
transfer policy of late has been firmly geared towards players with their best ahead of them.
An alternative, younger pick, therefore, is Sassuolo’s Gianluca Scamacca. He’s tough, tall,
and combative, with high shot volumes and a brilliant defensive work rate.
But he’s also deft, more technical than a typical player of his build,
and capable of moments of brilliance: think Christian Vieri or even Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
He’s got bite to go with his technical excellence and would adjust well to the Premier League.
Our choice, though, is Real Sociedad’s Alexander Isak.
Isak’s goal contributions this season haven’t matched last year’s breakthrough,
but he remains a superb dribbler and carries the ball into dangerous areas.
He often starts wide left, which is reminiscent of Aubameyang’s positioning,
or even Gabriel Martinelli’s, but assuming they don’t play together that wouldn’t be an issue.
Isak is technically excellent, with elite link-up play, tall, strong,
and would offer Arsenal additional threat on the break. He also worked excellently
with Odegaard while the latter was on loan at Sociedad, which could be a pivotal connection.
Arsenal need someone who can play off the right, ideally as an inverted winger,
in either shape, partly to ease the burden on Saka,
and partly because Saka might be wanted elsewhere. The player needs to be versatile,
offer a carrying and passing threat, and ideally weigh in with some goals.
Samuel Chukwueze of Villarreal is an electric dribbler, who more than holds up
his end in terms of scoring and works most effectively on the right, cutting infield.
He would be expensive, though. In Serie A, Hirving Lozano is a
close fit in terms of profile to what Saka offers, and could be available.
Our pick, however, is Juventus’ Dejan Kulusevski. Playing off the right or as a ball-carrying,
rather than passing, 10, Kulusevski excels at wriggling or bursting through tight spaces.
There are similarities with Smith Rowe, but Kulusevski is a less conservative passer
and should offer greater creative threat. He gets into the box often,
although could improve his goal scoring rate, and these abilities would allow Arsenal to create the
sort of fluid approach in attack that Arteta has been working towards, with players drifting in
off the flanks, sitting off, or pushing up high, depending on where other players are.
Arsenal’s attacks work best when it’s a less rehearsed version of the 2-3-5 shape,
and the five is filled by a rotating cast, rather than the same set of
players, and Kulusevski would fit this superbly. He’d also allow for tactical versatility,
as he could allow Saka to play off the left, or Odegaard to play deeper. Juventus are
apparently open to offers and the young Swede would not be out of Arsenal’s price range.
The last, and arguably least, important position is central midfield.
The key here is to add cover: Partey and Lokonga are a solid pair who will improve,
but other options are thin beyond Granit Xhaka. Arsenal ideally want a well-rounded
two-way midfielder who can pass progressively and defend, and who is able to contest Lokonga’s spot.
An intriguing option is Bologna’s Mattias Svanberg, who has worked on his defensive
attributes while still offering good passing and shooting for a midfielder. He looks ready
to step up a level. Another player we really like is Reims’ Azor Matusiwa, who moved from Groningen
last summer but has not missed a beat. Defensively more aggressive than Svanberg, Matusiwa excels at
covering space in front of his back line, while also offering probing passes between the lines.
His creativity has dropped at Reims due to the job he’s being asked to do,
but if he can marry his defensive output in France with his passing in the Eredivisie,
he’d be a pretty complete deep central midfielder.
Our pick, though, is an upgrade and one who might be attainable: Lyon’s Maxence Caqueret.
He’s absolutely not a midfield destroyer, rather a cultured deep passer who offers a serious volume
of pressures, tackles, and interceptions, despite his relatively slight frame. He’s assertive,
pushing up to defend, which would help Arsenal in their midfield battles against better sides,
and he also likes to drop back into the left half space ahead of the defence,
like Lokonga or Xhaka, to spray passes long or pass through the lines. Lyon would put up a
fight for such a talented young midfielder, but with only eighteen months left on his contract
Arsenal could secure a real talent with a sizeable bid.