The Air Force is planning to operate its newly emerging Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent
(GBSD) intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for decades well into the 2080s, with
the understanding that technological advances and threat circumstances are likely to evolve
substantially in coming years, requiring needed adaptations to the weapons system.
A key area of emphasis for these kinds of technical circumstances, over the course of
many years now, is for the military services to upgrade hardware with advanced new software
and computer algorithms designed to respond to and incorporate new threats as they emerge.
For instance, adversaries are expected to mature newer kinds of ICBM countermeasures
including sensors able to better discern and intercept ICBMs in space. While Air Force
leaders make a point not to discuss specific technical elements of GBSD development, for
obvious security reasons, senior leaders do talk generally about how weapons developers
have successfully employed digital engineering techniques to expedite and refine the development
of the weapon.
The GBSD weapons system is, according to Air Force Global Strike Command leader Gen. Timothy
Ray, “purpose-built” to “be in the ground for a long time,” referring to various engineering
methods designed to enable the weapons to accommodate new technologies over time.
Software upgrades, for instance, can add new guidance systems, reliability technologies
and targeting sensors to the weapon as new innovations emerge, an important factor given
that the new ICBM is slated to serve for decades and beyond. The possibility for ongoing modernization
was intentionally built into early designs of the weapon, due to the use of digital engineering
techniques able to replicate technological detail and help establish common computer
standards enabling continued upgrades. It would make sense that the weapons were built
with a specific mind to ongoing modernization, given that the U.S. Air Force has a long history
of upgrading and maintaining ICBMs.
The existing 1960s-era Minuteman III, for example, is already operating decades beyond
its intended lifespan. This circumstance, wherein the weapon has been lingering upon
the boundaries of obsolescence for many years, has added to the urgency with which the United
States is moving to engineer and deploy its new GBSD.
As part of the transition from Minuteman III to GBSD, the Air Force has maintained a high
op tempo regarding upgrades to the older platform to make it viable, relevant and functional
until the new ICBM arrives at the end of the decade. This has involved several recent tests
and shoot-offs of the weapon. For example, upgrades have included reliability improvements
as well as ongoing maintenance. Over the years, despite the pressing need for a new generation
of ICBMs, the Air Force has pushed to incorporate a large number of upgrades to the Minuteman
III, given its age. During one test last Fall, Air Force Global Strike Command fired off
a Minuteman III to assess and verify reentry vehicle performance and gather data. Last
October, a Minuteman III reentry vehicle traveled more than forty-two hundred miles to the Kwajalein
Atoll in the Marshall Islands, according to an Air Force Global Strike statement. What
this means is, in many key respects, the Air Force is aggressively pursuing a two-fold
trajectory, to include both working to ensure the Minuteman III still functions as a workable
deterrent while also fast-tracking and preparing GBSD given the urgency of the need for a new
platform.
Several senior Air Force leaders have expressed growing concern about a potential “missile
gap” occurring prior to the arrival of larger numbers of GBSD, given the concerning obsolescence
of the Minuteman III. This is perhaps why the Air Force is making sure to test and preserve
the Minuteman III for at least a few more years to ensure a safe transition to GBSD
and make sure potential adversaries understand that the United States has an effective ICBM.
Meanwhile, The Army awarded a $339.3 million contract to Lockheed Martin to design and
develop a mid-range, ground-based missile. The missile, tentatively called the MRC, is
intended “to hit targets in the range between the Precision Strike Missile, and the Long
Range Hypersonic Weapon.” Both missiles are also built by Lockheed Martin.
Lockheed Martin’s contract award includes a “MRC prototype, consisting of launchers,
missiles, and a battery operations center,” and could arrive in Army hands as early as
2023.
The company, one of America’s most storied aerospace companies, will get the MRC missile
into Army hands so quickly thanks to adapting existing missile components for use on the
MRC platform. A U.S. Army statement announcing the contract award reads as follows:
“In order to accelerate fielding to meet the FY23 timeline, the MRC prototype will
utilize and modify existing hardware and software from the Army and joint service partners,
and integrate additional technologies to achieve new operational effects. Following a broad
review of joint service technologies potentially applicable to MRC, the Army has selected variants
of the Navy SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles to be part of the initial prototype. The Army
will leverage Navy contract vehicles for missile procurement in support of the Army integration
OT agreement.”
The Lockheed Martin-designed missile would be used to support Army objectives in so-called
multi-domain operations—“to use strategic fires to penetrate and disintegrate enemy
layered defense systems, creating windows of opportunity for exploitation by the joint
force.”
Though not explicitly mentioned in the U.S. Army announcement, this initiative is a product
of the recent breakdown of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, an document signed
by the United States and the Soviet Union near the end of the Cold War.
The 1987 agreement limited the range of ballistic and cruise missiles that the United States
and the Soviet Union were allowed to have in service, in an effort to reduce tensions
between the world’s two most prolific nuclear powers. Since the United States allowed the
treaty to lapse in 2019, an intermediate-range arms race has escalated.
It’s not the first piece of new American hardware pushing the envelope either. The
Marine Corps is working on fielding a land-based variant of the Navy’s Naval Strike Missile
that the Corps would like to see mated to driverless Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV)
trucks.
Rather than being pointed east toward Russia however, the NSM would be used on rugged,
far-flung islands in the South China Sea area to take out Chinese naval ships, forcing the
People’s Liberation Army Navy farther out to sea. The Naval Strike Missile’s range
is about 185 kilometers, though the USMC would no doubt like to increase that number as much
as possible.
Thanks to the death of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, a new arms race is heating
up. And although new and cutting-edge missile technology like hypersonic missiles take up
the lion’s share of headlines, this latest arms race is no less important. The times—in
terms of arms control—are changing. Watch this topic for further future information.