hey guys dr mike hansen here and happy new year welcome to 2022
where this is my first video of the new year and in this one i'm going to talk about how
omicron is on the rise even though it does cause milder infection it's probably going to lead to
more hospitalizations but the good news is that it could actually in the long term spell the end of
the pandemic the good news with omicron is that there have been several studies showing that it
does cause milder infection compared to delta now on the flip side omicron is the most contagious
variant we have so far it is super contagious in fact as of today it's already making up
95% of new covid cases a study from hong kong found that omicron replicates 70 times faster
in human airways but infections in the lungs was less severe if you have a new variant that causes
milder infection but is way more contagious will that result in more hospitalizations
most likely depending on how well you control the virus recently the cdc did update its guidelines
for covid 19 isolation period shortening it from 10 days to 5 days if you're not having symptoms
this is because viral transmission is more likely to occur within those first five days
of symptoms compared to those second half of those five days so day six through 10
you're much less likely to spread that virus this is how the virus eventually causes some people to
end up in the hospital because it flies under the radar within those first five days of infection
covid hospitalizations reached a record high of more than 142 000 that was about a year ago then
it went over 100 000 back in september and now we're looking at the same thing right now at the
same time you have less available health care workers to take care of these covid patients
one because they themselves get covid and two because lots of health care workers are quitting
due to covid burnout which is at an all-time high so you have more and more er visits and
hospitalizations with less staff available not a good combination also there's a concern that
when it comes to toddlers omicron infection might resemble croup as more of an upper airway disease
or possibly resemble rsv respiratory syncytial virus so rsv infection causes bronchiolitis
meaning inflammation of the small airways of the lungs so remember toddlers and small children are
not simply miniaturized versions of adults they actually have unique anatomy and they present
different challenges in different circumstances that can lead them to getting hospitalized
now to some good news omicron infection might actually lead to protection from the delta variant
and if that is the case because omicron is now the dominant strain that could mean that this pandemic
might start to fade away this is based on a recent yet to be published yet to be peer-reviewed study
that was done in south africa this was at the africa health research institute in which
researchers they took blood samples from 13 people who were at the time infected with omicron and
all of them had symptoms the researchers then took the antibodies from those blood samples
put them in a test tube and then mixed them with different covid variants including delta
and omicron this is called a neutralization test so seven of the 13 people in the study
were previously vaccinated while six were not the researchers then repeated this process two weeks
after their initial infection the results showed something expected and then something not expected
what was expected was the antibody response to omicron the antibodies neutralized omicron
in the test tube 14-fold at that two-week mark what was unexpected was that the participants
developed some enhanced immunity against the delta variant with delta neutralization
increasing four-fold the researchers also showed that those who were previously vaccinated
were able to mount a better neutralizing response against delta while the response in unvaccinated
participants was more variable was this a perfect study no there was three main issues with it
one is that there's only 13 people in it two is that of those 13 people they didn't know who had
previous covid infection and three this study only looked at antibody neutralization which only
tells part of the story when it comes to the body's immune defense it's quite possible that
omicron infections simply amplify the existing immunity in the volunteers in this study provided
either by vaccinations or previous infections if that is the case then it remains to be seen what
will happen to unvaccinated people who get covid for the first time with this omicron variant but
if further experiments confirm the findings in this study that could mean that this pandemic will
fade away in the short term especially in january and february omicron is going to put a huge strain
on economies and healthcare systems but in the long term an omicron dominated world might
significantly lower the amount of hospitalizations and deaths especially as delta is being pushed out
omicron has been able to infect vaccinated people and those who've gotten sick with earlier variants
just last month in december researchers confirmed omicron's capacity to escape antibodies
that were generated from either previous vaccines or from previous infections antibodies that were
very potent against delta performed poorly against omicron this partially explained why
so many vaccinated and previously infected people were getting infected with omicron so let's just
assume for a second hypothetically speaking that this omicron variant it spreads it runs rampant
throughout everywhere and causes mild infections in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people
that would mean that people who get infected with delta will have a smaller likelihood of
passing along the virus to others while at the same time omicron will more easily infect those
who've recovered from delta that competitive edge could in effect wipe out delta but even if omicron
does eliminate delta that doesn't necessarily mean that omicron will stay on top forever
once people gain immunity to omicron natural selection will favor mutations that produce a
new variant that can escape the immune system so we're likely looking at one of three scenarios
moving forward one covid starts looking more and more like the seasonal flu where you have one
dominant strain taking over every year two covid looks something like dengue fever where you have
several variants circulating the globe causing some people to become ill here and there and then
third is the best case scenario but is also the least likely and that omicron becomes the king of
variants but eventually herd immunity eradicates this virus altogether that's that's gonna be all
for this video again happy new year stay safe and healthy and i'll catch you in the next one