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Have you ever stopped to think about what
it takes for a country to be considered a great world power?
And to follow up on this question: Do you consider Russia a superpower? Or rather,
do you think that beyond its nuclear arsenal, Russia has the necessary ingredients to be
considered as such? Just how far is Moscow capable of projecting its influence?
And, be careful, because despite everything we have seen lately on the Russian-Ukrainian border,
the answer is far from simple. Many factors come into play,
but in order to hold the title of superpower it seems clear that three things are needed:
Firstly: Military intervention and deterrence capability:
Secondly: Political influence and influence in international organizations;
And thirdly: Economic capacity. The question therefore is:
does Vladimir Putin's Russia meet these criteria?
In military terms, the Russian Federation is clearly a superpower. We are talking
about the leading power by number of deployed nuclear warheads, almost 1,500.
In addition, Russia has large armed forces that are relatively well equipped and, above all,
supported by a huge industrial-military complex. And although technologically they do not reach
the level of development of the West, it can still be said that they have advanced weaponry.
Secondly, it also has political influence and influence in international bodies.
Russia is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power.
The same status that the United States, China, the United Kingdom and France have.
However, when we talk about economic capacity or direct political influence
beyond the territory of the former Soviet Union, then it’s a different story.
Russia does not have the capacity to punish third countries with sanctions,
it has no major allies that can follow its lead,
and it cannot employ economic warfare techniques. What’s more, there are only a handful of
countries that currently accept Moscow's political leadership.
Now, don’t think for a moment that we are trying to reinvent the wheel, not at all.
The Kremlin and the Russian president himself are perfectly aware of this reality,
or rather of this weakness. And precisely for this reason they have been trying to assemble
their own network of allied countries for years. Countries that provide Russia with
international influence, the ability to lead and access to new markets.
And, take note, because we are not talking about China. While it’s true
the Sino-Russian relationship is very important, fundamental for the Kremlin,
they are perfectly aware in Moscow that Russia is not the dominant country in
this relationship. China will support them when and how it suits China. No more and no less.
So how can a country like Russia try to build such a network of allies? How far do Moscow's
tentacles reach? What tools does Vladimir Putin use to extend Russian influence?
Well... You see, since he assumed the presidency in 1999, one of the Russian president's obsessions
has been to surround himself with and get control of the oligarchs who run the country's
large companies, especially the energy companies. And do you know what? Putin has succeeded. Most of
the country's large companies respond directly to the interests of the State. And they do so
to such an extent that they often become the spearhead of Russia's foreign policy.
We are talking, VisualPolitik fans, about a model that has within its foundations
favors, blackmail and privileges of all kinds. We can basically say that the Russian governance
model is based on something like you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours. It’s a game of favors
decided in an office with closed doors. And so, in this video we are going to see
how the Russian president takes advantage of the control he has over the big oligarchs
to extend Russian influence abroad. This is the least familiar blade of
Russian diplomacy. Listen up!
(OLIGARCHS, THE HANDS OF PUTIN) Let’s put things in perspective. The fall
of the Soviet Union was followed by a period of crisis and political decline that fueled a dream,
almost an obsession, among a large part of the Russian population:
To regain greatness, power and influence in the world.
That’s because economic prosperity, good business performance and career opportunities are,
for many Russian citizens, secondary goals. First of all, the number one priority
is the strength, influence and power of the motherland Russia.
And guess what? Since coming to power Putin's policies have had exactly that same perspective.
National strength above all other issues. But, of course, given all the economic constraints
that the country has, the question, the big question is, how on earth do you do it? How do you
get leverage against the United States itself? Well, it turns out, what Putin's government has
done has been nothing less than to try to net precisely all those countries that do not arouse
much interest for the other great powers. A good recent example can be found in...
Hold on to your chair... In the latest great failure of US foreign policy.
I am, of course, referring to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Today it is one of the poorest, most unstable
and troubled countries in the world, and one which Russia now has in its sights.
Terrorism, jihadism and the occasional energy project have made Moscow look
more closely at the Land of the Taliban. Among other reasons because one of the
things Moscow is most terrified of is that this country could become an epicenter of jihadism,
a base of operations for radical groups. Don’t forget that Russia already has a
growing problem with this issue. Much of the former Soviet Union has
become fertile ground for jihadist radicalization. In fact, Russia is not only home to more than 20
million Muslims, but also became the country that contributed the most foreign fighters to ISIS.
So, with all this in mind, after the exit of the United States,
Moscow felt the need to gain influence as well as to monitor and keep a close
eye on what is happening in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
In order to achieve this, Putin's government has made use of its strategy of friendly oligarchs.
Oligarchs who have names and surnames... And we are talking about one who stands out above
all the others: Yevgeny Prigozhin. This man is the owner – nudge, nudge – of
the Russian president's favorite restaurants, which is why he is known as Putin's Chef.
As it stands, Prigozhin is a close ally of Putin and devotes part of
his fortune to financing political and paramilitary activities abroad.
We are talking about one of the most powerful players in Russian political circles. One of the
most important oligarchs in the country. No gas, no oil, no coal. Restaurants.
Well, restaurants.... And also mercenaries. Yevgeniy Prigozhin is something of a shadow
Kremlin representative. The guy who is entrusted with missions that the Russian
government doesn't want to be official. A character who enjoys a virtual monopoly
in projecting Russia's ambitions towards the Middle East and Africa.
In exchange, of course, for pursuing his own benefit.
It's a win-win in every sense of the word. Now, a question that I'm sure, I'm certain
many of you are wondering is, how does he go about this? How does he project his influence?
Well, you see, Prigozhin is the creator of the Wagner Group.
The Wagner Group is a paramilitary organization with an international network of mercenaries and
dodgy businesses operating in countries where you probably wouldn’t want to go on vacation.
The Wagner Group has deployed paramilitary forces in countries such as Syria, Libya, Sudan and are
even linked to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. And not only that. They are also credited with
interventions in countries friendly to Russia in order to stifle pro-democracy protests,
conducting all kinds of disinformation campaigns and false flag operations. This group was,
for example, accused of interfering in the 2016 US presidential election.
This group is also said to be dedicated to the extraction of gold and diamonds,
most likely from illegal mines.
They are not exactly an NGO or a company concerned about Corporate Social Responsibility,
Environmental Social and Governance, the so-called ESG criteria, or anything close to those issues.
As a result, Yevgeniy Prigozhin is one of the oligarchs under US sanctions.
And yes, we could go so far as to say that Russia has something like
two foreign ministries and two defense ministries. There's Lavrov and Shoigu
as formal ministers and Prigozhin as the one in charge of operating in the shadows.
Well, it turns out that this Russian oligarch is also the
main financier of the Foundation for the Protection of National Values, the FZNC.
The Foundation for the Protection of National Values is an organization
with a presence in several countries throughout Africa and Central Asia.
In the case of Afghanistan, his trusted man on the ground,
Maxim Shugaley, was one of the first people to arrive in Kabul after the Taliban seized power.
Shugaley controls a political network under the FZNC that seeks to find areas of security
and also economic cooperation between the Taliban and Russia. To look for areas of
cooperation and, of course, to be aware of everything that happens in the country.
And keep in mind that we are not talking about just any guy but a very
experienced one. For example, he went so far as to be imprisoned in Libya from July
2019 to December 2020 for having met with Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan
leader Muammar Gaddafi, to encourage him to make the leap to the political front line.
So, what exactly do Putin, Prigozhin and Shugaley want from the Taliban?
Well, one of the direct consequences of the Taliban's rise to power is the
international isolation of the country. Very few countries want to have ties with Afghanistan.
So if the Taliban want to get money, weapons, energy or information to consolidate their
power, who better to turn to than the Russian bear? Let bygones be bygones.
But what can Russia get out of a place as inhospitable,
impoverished and desolate as Afghanistan? To become the most influential foreign
player in the entire country. And you may be thinking, what on earth does anyone want
that influence for in such a desolate country? Well, for example, to prevent Afghanistan from
becoming a base of operations for jihadist groups that Moscow considers a threat.
But that is not all. Moscow is also pursuing what we might call economic geostrategic objectives.
There would be the huge deposits of desirable minerals, such as lithium, that
Afghanistan has, but we are also talking about strategically important projects such as this one:
What you see on the screen is the TAPI project, a huge gas pipeline that, once completed,
will allow huge amounts of gas to be transported from Turkmenistan to India and Pakistan.
We are talking about at least 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year in the first phase.
(Taliban Regime To Deploy 30,000 Troops To Resume Work On The TAPI Gas Pipeline
Project – Pipeline technology Journal) But that's not all.
Take another look at the map. Afghanistan could become for India
and Pakistan – two countries with more than 1.6 billion inhabitants,
that’s 20% of the world's population – what Ukraine has been for the European Union for years.
An indispensable strategic enclave to receive an enormous flow of natural gas
and oil from the rich deposits of Central Asia. And guess what? The Russians have been wanting to
be part of this business for years. Check it out. (Russia Interested in Participating in TAPI
Pipeline's Construction – Lavrov1 – Business Turkmenistan)
And the question is, why on earth does Russia care so much? Well, basically for two reasons:
Firstly, Russia is a huge exporter of oil and natural gas. Participating in what may become
one of the most important routes in the world would greatly strengthen its energy influence.
And secondly, if this route is consolidated,
Russia could use it in the future to export its own gas and oil. And take note,
because estimates suggest that India will devour gas and oil over the next few decades.
And believe me when I tell you that the Russians are serious about looking for
alternative customers to the European economies but also to China. The Afghan
route and the connection with India could be a way to get a new colossal customer.
In this vein, the TAPI pipeline could be extended and eventually connected
to the gas extraction fields that Russia and Kazakhstan are developing in the Caspian Sea.
We are talking about the Tsentralnaya and Imashevskoye fields, a joint venture
between the main Kazakh gas producer, KazMunayGas National Company, and a
Russian consortium, formed by Lukoil and Gazprom. Both countries have a 50% stake in the project,
and for Gazprom, for example, these fields would be its biggest gamble in the Caspian Sea.
Who would have thought that a territory as impoverished and desolate as Afghanistan
could potentially be so important? Well, to make sure that everything is under control,
the Russian oligarchs are there setting up their networks of influence
and surveillance throughout the country. In return the Taliban receive weapons, advice,
energy, supplies of various kinds and even money if necessary. The whole package from Russia.
However, don’t think for a moment that this is the only example we can
find. Just take a look at the African continent and Latin America to find a
lot more activity from Moscow. Listen up.(THE RUSSIAN CATALOG)
Yes, the influence of the United States and its Western allies is very, very great,
but it is also true that in some places, this influence is much more limited than in others.
It's no secret and it's something we've already talked about here on VisualPolitik.
China's influence in Africa has soared in recent years.
Through investments, infrastructure construction, trade agreements and
technology transfer, the Chinese government has gained a great deal of influence,
as well as new customers and new suppliers for its companies.
Well, in a way Russia is trying to do something very similar. Of course, as much
as it pains Putin, Russia is not China. Moscow has nowhere near as full a wallet as Beijing.
So the Kremlin has had to look for other, shall we say, more imaginative ways to break through.
In the case of Africa, Russia aims to become a major supplier of grain, medicines and energy.
An example of this is that, with more than 7.5 million tons per year, Russia is
already the largest exporter of wheat to Egypt, It also intends to use its extensive experience to
promote mining and energy projects in countries such as Zimbabwe, Angola and Burkina Faso.
Do you remember good old Yevgeny Prigozhin, "Putin's Chef"? Well,
it is known that his companies have received concessions to
exploit diamonds and gold in the Central African Republic.
Another example? Sergey Ivanov, son of the former Russian defense minister,
is the CEO of Alrosa, a Russian mining company specializing in industrial diamonds.
Because, while Russia may not have as much economic capacity as China or the United States,
it does have something that many autocratic governments want with all their being:
weapons, few scruples and a lot of experience in intelligence, repression and security.
To illustrate, do you remember the Wagner group we mentioned earlier? Well, take a look.
(In recent years, Wagner Group contractors have been deployed throughout the Middle
East and Africa, including Syria, Yemen, Libya, Sudan, Mozambique, Madagascar,
Central African Republic and Mali. They have focused primarily on protecting ruling elites
and critical infrastructure. Federica Saini Fasanotti, Brookings Institution analyst)
What’s more, the Russians and Chinese are very pragmatic. They don't ask about
things like human rights, democracy or the environment. And that quality,
in this type of country is an advantage when it comes to doing business.
Well, do you know what? The modus operandi is very similar to what we have seen in Afghanistan:
Russian oligarchs establish themselves on the ground and seek agreements with local managers.
Managers who receive such key tools for maintaining their power as access to the
complete catalog of the Russian military industry, with a special section on mercenaries, along with
the experience, technology and know-how they need to be able to exploit their natural resources.
In return, Russia gets political influence, new customers and also,
of course, further enrichment for the oligarchs close to the Kremlin.
From Libya to Nigeria and from Ethiopia to Mali, over the past few years,
Moscow has concluded more than 20 military agreements across the African continent.
This has enabled Russia to become the largest exporter of military equipment to Africa. To give
you an idea, its market share is almost 50%. 13 September 2021: Russia is building its
military influence in Africa, challenging US and French dominance. CNBC) (2 October 2021:
Mali's plan for Russia mercenaries to replace French troops unsettles Sahel. BBC)
And so, VisualPolitik fans, beyond Ukraine and the big headlines, this is how Moscow is
trying to increase its political influence in the world while gaining new markets for
its products. And even more importantly, it gets the dollars its military companies
need to continue upgrading their equipment. This is the formula Russia uses to continue
to have all the influence a superpower needs. And within this formula, Russian oligarchs and
big business play a key role. Where the West is not looking,
China and also Russia usually have at least one foot on the ground.
So what do you think of Russia's bid to extend its influence with the help of
oligarchs close to the Kremlin? Leave us your opinion below,
in the comments. And if you liked this video don't forget to like and subscribe to VisualPolitik.
Once again, thank you for being there. All the best, and see you next time.