in 2015 the leaders of the world made a
big promise a promise that over the next
15 years the lives of billions of people
are going to get better with no one left
behind that promise is the Sustainable
Development Goals the SDGs we're now
three years in a fifth of the way into
the journey the clock is ticking if we
off track now it's gonna get harder and
harder to hit those goals so what we'll
do for you today is give you a snapshot
on where we are today some projections
on where we are heading and some ideas
on things we might need to do
differently now the SDGs are of course
spectacularly complicated I would expect
nothing less from the United Nations how
many goals may be something tried and
tested like 3 7 or 10 No let's pick a
prime number higher than 10 17 goals
I congratulate those of you who have
memorized them already for the rest of
us here they are 17 goals ranging from
ending poverty to inclusive cities to
sustainable fisheries they're all a
comprehensive plan for the future of our
world
but sadly a plan without the data to
measure it so how we'll begin to track
progress well I'm going to use today the
social Progress Index it's a measure of
the quality of life of countries ranging
from the basic needs of survival food
water shelter safety through to the
foundations of well-being education
information health and the environment
and opportunity rights freedom of choice
inclusiveness and access to higher
education now the social Progress Index
doesn't look like the SDGs but
fundamentally it's measuring the same
concept and the social Progress Index
has the advantage that we have the data
we have 51 indicators drawn from trusted
sources to measure these concepts
and also what we can do because it's an
index is add together all those
indicators to give us an aggregate score
about how we're performing against the
total package of the SDGs now one caveat
the social Progress Index is a measure
of quality of life we're not looking at
whether this can be achieved within the
planets environmental limits
you will need other tools to do that so
how are we doing on the SDGs well I'm
going to put the SDGs on a scale of 0 to
100 and 0 is the absolute worst score on
each of those 51 indicators absolute
social progress zero and then a hundred
is the minimum standard required to
achieve those SDGs a hundred is where we
want to get to by 2030 so where did we
start on this journey fortunately not at
zero in 2015 the world score on social
against the SDGs was sixty nine point
one some way the way there but quite a
long way to go now let me also emphasize
that this world forecast which is based
on data from 180 countries its
population weighted so China has more
weighting than Comoros India has more
weighting than Iceland but we can unpack
this and look at see how the countries
are doing and the country today that is
closest to achieving the SDGs is Denmark
and the country with the farthest ago is
Central African Republic and everyone
else is somewhere in between so the
challenge for the SDGs is to try and
sweep all these dots across to the right
to a hundred by 2030 can we get there
well with the social Progress Index
we've got some time series data so we
have some idea of the trend that the
countries are on on which we can build
some projections so let's have a look
let's start with our top performing
country Denmark and yes I'm pleased to
say that Denmark is forecast to achieve
the SDGs by 2030 maybe not surprising
but I'll take a win let's look at some
of the other richer countries of the
world of g7 and we find that Germany and
Japan will get there or there abouts but
Canada
France the UK and Italy are all going to
fall short and the United States quite
some way back now this is this is sort
of worrying news but these are the
richest countries in the world not the
most populous so let's take a look now
of the biggest countries in the world
the ones that will most affect whether
or not we achieve the SDGs and here they
are um countries in the world with a
population the higher than 100 million
ranging from China to Ethiopia obviously
the u.s. and Japan would be in that list
but we've looked at them already so here
we are the biggest countries on in the
world the deal breakers for the SDGs and
the country that's going to make most
progress towards the SDGs is Mexico
Mexico is gonna get to about 87 so just
shy of where the US is going to get but
quite some way off our SDG target Russia
comes next then China and Indonesia then
Brazil might have expected Brazil to do
a bit better Philippines and then a step
down to India Bangladesh Pakistan
Nigeria and then Ethiopia so none of
these countries are going to hit the
SDGs and we can then take these numbers
in all the countries of the world to
give us ourselves a world forecast on
achieving that total package of the SDGs
so remember in 2015 we started at 69
point 1 I'm pleased to say that over the
last three years we have made some
progress in 2018 we've hit 70 point five
and if we project that rate of progress
for to 2030 that's gonna get us to 75
point 2 which is obviously a long way
short of our target indeed on current
trends we won't hit the 2030 targets
until 20 94 now I don't know about you
but I certainly don't want to wait that
long so what can we do about this well
the first thing to do is we've got to
call out the rich countries here are the
countries closest to the SDGs with the
greatest resources and they're falling
short maybe they think that this is like
the old world where gold from the UN are
just the pork and
not for them well you're wrong the SDGs
are for every country and it's shameful
that these wealthy countries are falling
short every country needs a plan to
implement the SDGs and to deliver them
for their citizens
g7 other rich countries get your act
together the second thing we can do is
look a bit further into the data and see
where there are opportunities to
accelerate progress or there are
negative trends that we can reserve
reverse so I'm gonna take you into three
areas one way of we're doing quite well
one way we really should be doing better
and another way we've got some real
problems let's start with good news and
I want to talk about why we call
nutrition and basic medical care
this covers SDG to on no hunger and the
basic elements of SDG 3 on health so
maternal and child mortality infectious
diseases etc this is an area where most
of the rich world has hit the SDGs and
we also find looking at our big
countries that the most advanced have
got pretty close here are our 11 big
countries and if you look at the top
Brazil and Russia are pretty close to
the STG target but at the bottom
Ethiopia Pakistan a long way to go
that's where we are in 2018 what's a
trajectory accounts on the current
trajectory how far we're going to get by
2030 well let's have a look what we see
is a lot of progress see Bangladesh in
the middle if Bangladesh maintains its
current rate of progress it could get
very close to that SDG target and Ethier
over the bottom is making a huge amount
of progress at the moment if that can be
maintained Ethiopia could get a long way
we add this all up for all the countries
of the world and we've got our
projection is a score of 94 point 5 by
2030 and if countries like the
Philippines which are growing more
slowly could accelerate progress that we
could get a lot closer so there are
reasons to be optimistic about SDGs 2 &
3 but there's another very basic area of
the SDGs where we're doing less well
which is SD g 6 on water and sanitation
again it's an SD G where most of the
rich countries have already achieved the
targets
and again for our big countries are big
11 emerging countries we see that some
of the countries like Russia and Mexico
are very close to the target but Nigeria
and other countries a very long way back
so how are we doing on this study what
progress are we going to make over the
next 12 years based on the current
direction of travel well here we go
and yes there is some progress at top
four countries are all hitting the SGG
targets some are moving forward quite
quickly but it's not enough to really
move us for significantly what we see is
that for the world as a whole we're
forecasting a score of around 85 86 by
2030 not fast enough
now obviously this is not good news but
I think what this data also shows is
that we could be doing a lot better
water and sanitation is a solved problem
it's about scaling that solution
everywhere so if we could accelerate
progress in some of those countries are
improving more slowly Nigeria the
Philippines etc then we could get a lot
closer to the goal if you don't think
SDC g6 is probably the biggest
opportunity of all the SDGs for a step
change so that's an area we could do
better this looked finally an area where
we are struggling which is what we call
personal rights and inclusiveness this
is covering concepts across the range of
SDGs STG one on poverty scg five on
gender equality SDG ten on inequality
STG eleven on inclusive cities and SDG
sixteen on peace and justice
so crossings SDGs there are themes
around rights and inclusiveness and
those may seem less immediate or
pressing than things like hunger and
disease but rights and inclusion are
critical to an agenda of no one left
behind so how will be doing on those
issues let's start off with personal
rights and what I'm going to do first is
show you our big countries in 2015 so
here they are and I've put the USA and
Japan back in so it's our 13 biggest
countries in the world and we see a wide
range of scores the United States at the
table with Japan hitting the goals China
a long way behind
what's been our direction of travel on
the rights agenda over the last three
years let's have a look well what we see
is actually pretty ugly the majority of
the countries are standing still or
moving backwards and big countries like
Brazil India China Bangladesh have all
seen significant declines this is
worrying let's have a look now at
inclusiveness and inclusiveness is
looking at things like violence and
discrimination against minorities gender
equity LGBT inclusion etc and as a
result we've seen that the scores for
our big countries are generally lower
every country a rich and poor alike is
struggling with building an inclusive
society well what's our direction travel
are we building more inclusive countries
let's have a look progress to 2018 and
again we see the world moving backwards
most country static a lot of countries
going backwards
Bangladesh moving backwards but also two
of the countries that were leading
Brazil and the United States have gone
backwards significantly over the last
three years let's sum this up now for
the world as a whole
and what we see that on personal rights
for the whole world is we're forecasting
actually a decline in the score on
personal rights to about 60 and then
that's declining in the score on
inclusiveness till about to about 42 now
obviously these things can change quite
quickly with rights and with changes in
law changes and attitudes but we have to
accept that on current trends this is
probably the most worrying aspect of the
SDGs
how I depressed you
I hope not because I think what we do
see is that progress is happening in a
lot of places and there are
opportunities for accelerating progress
we are living in a world that is
tantalizingly close to ensuring that no
one need die of hunger or malaria or
diarrhea if we can focus our efforts
mobilize the Ross and resources
galvanized the political will that step
change is possible but in focusing on
those really basic solvable SDGs we
mustn't forget the whole package the
goals are an unwieldy set of indicators
and goals and targets but they also
include the challenges our world faces
the fact that the SDGs are focusing
attention on the fact that we face a
crisis in personal rights and
inclusiveness is a positive if we forget
that if we choose to double down on the
SDGs that we can solve if we go for a
less DG a la carte and pick the most
easy SDGs then we will have missed the
point of the SDGs we will miss the goals
and we will failed on the promise of the
SDGs thank you
[Applause]