Hey, good Monday morning everybody.
It's chief meteorologist
Brad Panovich get ready for.
I wouldn't say a wet week,
but the chance for heavy downpours
on and off the next couple of days.
No wash outs in the forecast,
but I'll tell you what if you're
under one of these scattered
storms in next couple of days,
they're going to mean business.
We saw some of this start on Sunday.
What's going on is a pretty interesting
setup and kind of what you get when you
see a wet pattern during the summer.
During the summer we don't
typically get cold fronts.
We don't get low pressure systems
unless it's tropical in nature.
We tend to rely on pop up or scattered
thunderstorms, and in this case.
What's going on?
Is we've got an upper low
back here over the Midwest.
We've got the Bermuda high
off the East Coast.
Now.
The flow around low pressure
is counterclockwise.
The flow around high pressure is
obviously clockwise so that flow
around the high pressure is allowing
for some warm moist air to be
advected or moved into the Carolinas.
And that's really what's causing this
deep fetch of tropical moisture.
Now in the heating of the day,
it just takes a little bit of
heating or a thinning of the clouds,
or what we call differential
heating boundaries.
Just all these little triggers.
Get thunderstorms develop so there scattered.
It doesn't rain the whole day,
but when you're under these heavy downpours,
boy do you get some heavy rain
and part of the reason we see such
heavy rain is this right here?
So this is what we call principal water.
Let me see if I can move this up.
So this is basically showing you how
much more simple water or moisture
there is in the atmosphere from the
top to the bottom and when you look
at this you see these shades you know of.
Kind of like Peach here you're getting
up and 1.8 to 2 two and a half.
That's really deep moisture so
any thunderstorms or showers that
develop the next couple of days.
Are going to be really what we
call efficient rain makers.
They're going to dump a ton of heavy rain.
So while not everybody's going to
see rain every single day at some
point over the next couple of days,
you're likely going to get a downpour.
And like I said,
these aren't going to be little sprinkles.
These are going to be heavy downpours
underneath them because that rich
tropical moisture is just kind
of be parked over us for really
most of the beginning of the week.
And honestly,
all the way until the end of the week
when it starts to taper off a little bit.
So let me kind of show you how
this is going to fall today.
We'll show you the future cast of
what we think is going to happen.
With these pop-up afternoon storms.
So let's take a look at the futurecast.
Obviously as we go into the afternoon,
I expect really scattered thunderstorms
develop, and again, you may not get
hit until later this afternoon.
But at some point today or tomorrow,
you're likely going to see a heavy downpour.
So for everyone planning outdoor activities,
the thing I will tell you to be cautious
this week is always have a backup plan or
be ready for heavy downpours at some point.
Not going to rain the entire day,
but you're going to understand these
heavy downpours so you can see how
scattered they are across the area.
And again, at some point,
I think everyone gets hit with some
rain today before it moves out.
Things calm down typically at night,
and then during the heating of the day
tomorrow you'll see things crank back up.
They tend to start in the mountains
and then crank up.
You know,
look at them scattered about the area.
Again, not all day rains will be
plenty of dry hours out there.
You can see as we go into the middle
week we'll see this happen again.
So this is going to be a recurring
theme every single day this week.
That by the time we get to the
end of the week,
I think everybody is going to see
some rainfall at some point now.
Let me show you some of the potential
amounts of rain that we're going to
see across the area like it's going
to vary like yesterday at my house,
3 inches of our two inches of rain,
some areas of three inches,
and some saw none.
That's just kind of the way it's going to go,
but hopefully over the next couple days
that will all even out and we'll all
get some much needed rain across the area,
so just real quickly.
Kind of what you know.
The general guidance for this
week and next five days or so,
you kind of see that we're going
to have this area that you see
kind of shaded in blue here.
That's about an inch of rain.
Some areas in the mountains
of 1 to 2 inches and again.
I think it's just going to be very
based on where these thunderstorms
pop up the next couple of days,
but you're clearly going to see
some pockets of heavy rain,
but you can see the focus of the
real heavy rain is likely going to
be back here where the track of the
upper low is so across the Carolinas,
this is a pretty significant change
from what we've seen recently,
which is good news that I think
that's going to give us at least
the basic chances of seeing some
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
So let me quickly show you again
currently what's going on.
I think you can kind of see the set up today.
As we look at this, I'll loop this.
Our upper low here.
High pressure here.
The flow of moisture basically right into
the Carolinas from both directions.
So as we get into the afternoon,
especially the clouds,
they now we don't need full sunshine
in this setup today because the
atmosphere is pretty much uncapped.
It will take very little,
just the warming of the day.
I think you'll see the storms begin to
bubble up and you're starting to see some
of that happen already across the upstate.
An incredibly muggy so.
Also, if you're outside today
or the next couple of days,
it's the air you can wear.
Kind of set up so.
We're in this pattern.
It's been dry for two months.
I know a lot of people have
graduation plans over the weekend.
Had graduation plans this past weekend.
Just be prepared.
There's going to be some huge gully
washers over the next couple of days.