In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the form
of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture. We’re concerned only
with a player’s on-field performance and their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is West Ham United, welcome to Sensible Transfers.
West Ham’s situation is odd. They are too good not to be considered a rival for European competition
spots, but they are not at the level of a Premier League challenger and probably never will be.
To consolidate or push on, the club must spend. While West Ham have a difficult history in the
market, the sensible supervision of David Moyes, who also deserves huge credit for his coaching,
has seen an uptick in the quality and dependability of incoming players.
Moyes’ systems are based on defensive solidity, aerial ability, and quick transitions forwards.
He likes to defend low and compact, while trusting in the creativity of his full-backs
and the combination of wide inverted attackers and late midfield runners to generate chances.
In Michail Antonio, Moyes can field a striker who is horribly awkward to play against,
who works incredibly hard, and whose unorthodox technique belies his real ability to score or open
up chances for others. Declan Rice has become an excellent all-round midfielder, defending
his back line, moving the ball forwards well, and leading his side with aplomb. And in Jarrod Bowen
and Said Benrahma, Moyes has two dynamic, creative attackers who can change games from the flanks.
West Ham face the two main issues that plague any side in their position: how to make the next jump,
if at all, by improving squad quality, and how to hold on to, or adequately replace,
the talent that got them to that point in the first place? Even with the relative financial
comfort that comes from the London Stadium, West Ham cannot realistically fend off serious bids for
players like Rice, so the question becomes how to replace them without compromising the team?
Rice has become the symbol of this West Ham side, his performances for England also marking him out
as not only a talent in the holding midfield role, but also as a leader, At West Ham,
he is more dynamic, less a pure shield and more progressive in his passing and carrying.
Rice will leave eventually, probably for serious money. Who might fill his shoes?
Standard Liege’s Nicholas Raskin might never reach the standard of a defensive midfielder
for a title-challenging side, but everything in his game suggests he would comfortably hit the
level required to play for any other side in a top five league. Defensively astute and hard-working,
he’s also a good progressive passer who would develop through exposure to top level football.
A more experienced, but also more expensive,
fit is St Etienne’s 23-year-old Mahdi Camara. He compares well with Rice in a number of metrics,
and is perhaps a more forward-thinking passer, although he reads the game less well.
Our pick, though, is AC Milan’s Franck Kessie. Kessie is a dynamic defensive midfielder,
with better passing range and progression than Rice, albeit with weaker defensive numbers.
This is partly because Milan are a more dominant side in their league, and it is
worth noting that Kessie’s defensive output has trended upwards in his four seasons at the club.
The midfielder will soon be out of contract at Milan, with wages the stumbling block
over renewak, and that could be an issue for West Ham too. But Kessie is rightly regarded as a
very good player with the potential to exceed his recent output in Serie A. He would offer West Ham
more passing in transition and more pace and ball security, without massively compromising their
defensive solidity. Selling Rice would be a huge blow for the club and fans; replacing him with
someone of Kessie’s ability would go some, though not all, of the way to making that more palatable.
In the short term, this area is a concern because of injuries, although in Jamal Baptiste and Aji
Alese, West Ham do have good young options who could benefit from filling in with the first team.
In the longer term, though, West Ham need to replace Angelo Ogbonna, a left-sided centre
back with a decent passing range, but who is now 33 years old. Monaco’s left-footed defender Benoit
Badiashile has significant passing and carrying ability, while needing to improve in the air.
He has a great looking future, though, and would be worth the investment.
Our pick, though, is Nayef Aguerd, the 25-year-old Rennes defender.
He’s also left-footed and has excellent passing volume and accuracy numbers.
Aguerd is really excellent in the air too, both as an attacker at set-pieces
and defensively. His defensive numbers otherwise look a little low,
but Rennes are quite a ball dominant side so they would be. He’s a calm, intelligent, robust player,
though, which is why West Ham wanted him last summer. Price could be a stumbling block, but
he’s exactly the sort of player Moyes knows would make his side better in the short and long term.
Our last position is in many ways the hardest, centre forward. Antonio is something of a
footballing unicorn, a centre forward who converted from being a right wing back,
whose excellent output will be hard to replicate. A big, physical forward like
Andrea Belotti at Torino, who links and carries well, could work, while Sevilla’s Rafa Mir
offers an abrasive quality and a good shot volume and aerial presence. Our pick, though, would
take West Ham in a different direction. Mainz’s Jonathan Burkhardt is a more well-rounded forward.
Burkhardt would offer a different kind of focal point to Antonio, with more running in behind
and stretching of defences vertically, but that could suit West Ham’s other attacking players.
He’s a nuisance on the counter, too, as his goal against Armenia Bielefeld showed this season,
chasing down a clearance and robbing a defender before finishing smartly.
West Ham need to evolve up front and Burkhardt, the third best U23
in the Bundesliga this season for xG per 90, would give them that edge.