It’s been another busy week of cruise news and developments,
including some really positive breakthroughs although also a few set backs.
I am Gary Bembridge, and this is another of my Tips For Travellers cruise updates,
where I will unpick five of the biggest breaking
cruising news items, and discuss what it means for all of us as cruisers.
One disappointing piece if news is that the first
cruise to depart in the Caribbean since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic
came to an abrupt end after one passenger tested positive for Covid-19 on board.
SeaDream 1 was a few days into its first Caribbean cruise out of Barbados with 53 passengers
when one of them was not feeling well, and tested positive for Covid on board.
All guests and non-essential crew were immediately sent to their cabins to
quarantine, the cruise was cut short and the ship sailed back to Barbados.
They docked late at night and in the morning the Barbados Authorities
took control, with guests remaining quarantined in
their cabins at the time of recording this and various testing taking place.
Many were surprised by this development as guests had to produce a negative
PCR Covid result taken within 72 hours of flying into Barbados as part of the country’s
entry requirements, and then the line tested guests before boarding.
This Covid issue shows the challenges lines, and guests, face as cruising returns, as despite the
layers of protocols there could still be issues like this. And how liens deal with them is key.
It shows the importance of the procedures to reduce the risk of bringing Covid on board,
plus a process and ability to quickly identify cases if they break out, as SeaDream did,
This all then has to be backed up by a clear and quick plan
on how to deal with them, which SeaDream had.
The most encouraging news in recent days is, of course,
about vaccines and how they may help to return cruising closer to pre-pandemic ways.
Like most people, I was excited by the news that the Pfizer/BioNTech covidvaccine had a 90%
success rate in their clinical trials. However, it is not all good news for cruising yet.
The day the news broke, travel shares including cruise lines shot up. Carnival shares jumped 39%,
Royal Caribbean by 27% and Norwegian by 28%, but then stalled. These new prices are all still below
the level they were in June, when there last was a bit of a rally. Even with these gains,
the share prices are well below half of where they were before the pandemic.
Why a good initial bounce but not a steady turn around? Investors and the scientific community,
understand that as good as this news is, there is a way to go before vaccines will impact
and allow cruising to open and return to the way it was to attract cruisers back in big numbers.
On the vaccine they still have to finish safety testing, get regulatory
approval, manufacture enough, get them distributed - including the logistics of how to do that when
the vaccine has to be kept at -70 degrees Celsius and people require 2 jabs three weeks apart
It is also not known yet if the vaccine stops you spreading the virus
or just from developing symptoms, if it works equally well in high-risk elderly people
nor how long immunity lasts. Scientists say this will take months, if not years, to answer fully.
Of course, the news that vaccines look possible and are coming is huge news for cruising,
and a good reason to be optimistic that they could play a major role in returning
cruising closer to how it was pre pandemic. However, timing may be slower than we all hope.
It is unlikely to change much in practice heading into 2021, and if you are hoping cruises in the
first half of 2021 may be very different to what is being outlined now, that looks unlikely. Why?
The health authorities, like the CDC in USA and equivalent across the world,
and the cruise lines will have to develop and adapt their plans and protocols
to incorporate vaccines along side or in addition to current protocols. There is
still a lot that will have to happen before they can consider doing that.
Certainly until vaccines are rolled out and widely adopted,
the existing protocols, such as the Framework For Conditional Sailing in the USA will remain,
which includes testing before boarding and again before disembarking, reduced capacity,
masks and face coverings, physical distancing and limiting ports to cruise line only excursions.
This is what the lines will be focusing on for the months ahead,
as this will get them all sailing again. And that
is their focus right now. But as we make our way through 2021, it does look like vaccines
could lead to easing and lifting of many of the changes that cruisers are not looking forward to.
So, if you are hoping to have a closer to pre-pandemic cruise experience thanks to vaccines,
I recommend to focus your cruise plans on the second half of 2021, for now anyway.
But if, like me, you want to cruise heading into 2021
work on the basis that the more restrictive protocols are what will be in place.
Building on from that advice, today (as I record this) Carnival have removed all 2021 sailings
of over 7-nights out of US ports from its website.
Why? The CDC Framework For Conditional Sailing requires all cruises to be 7
nights or less until they revoke the order, which is only due to expire in November 2021.
Carnival have not cancelled the cruises yet, but have stopped selling them.
They say that once they conclude discussions with the CDC on
all the terms in the plans to return to service,
they will then update travel agents and guests on what will happen finally to those cruises.
Other lines are likely to follow this step, as it is a requirement
for the return to cruise framework.
This again is, more evidence that you should plan, certainly at least for the first half of 2021,
to expect the more restricted cruise experience and focus on 7-night or shorter cruises.
We don’t yet know if passengers will be allowed to book back-to-back cruises
to have longer vacations. It was not discussed in the Framework document.
Something we will need to wait for the more detailed CDC protocols and rules to cover.
Meanwhile, while this is going on, there could
be promising news for UK cruisers. The government there has reportedly
signalled they are actively looking at lifting their total ban on ocean cruising.
The UK-based cruise lines, such as P&O Cruises, Cunard, Saga and Fred Olsen,
along with some who home base ships in the UK in the summer, like Princess Cruises,
partnered with the UK & Ireland Cruise Line Association and produced a discussion document
a few months back with protocols for resuming cruising for discussion with the UK government.
This included testing, capacity reduction, masks, cruise line only execursions and other measures
like those we have seen proposed in the USA, Italy, Germany, Singapore and so on.
After a really long silence, a UK government spokesman has been quoted
in the UK “Daily Mail” newspaper saying (and I quote) "We are working on a framework to allow
the industry to reopen safely early in the new year. That will allow cruises to restart
and enable bookings to take place to start bringing money into the industry again”.
This could be soon, as the spokesman said ministers are likely to allow cruises around
the UK coast to resume as soon as January 2021.
It is implied this would be for UK guests only, but this was not explicit in the interview.
They also said though that once they allow lines to go beyond the UK,
they will require them to take full responsibility
for repatriating passengers to the UK in the case of outbreaks further afield.
The UK government is sensitive to this as they had to arrange,
and cover costs, of repatriating around 19,000 cruise passengers at the start of the pandemic.
So, this major cruise country may see cruising being allowed to resume in a limited way pretty
soon. I will keep you posted as we await more formal confirmation from the government.
In the last few days, Norwegian Cruise group, so that’s Norwegian Cruise Line,
Oceania and Regent Seven Seas have been updating the financial community on their results.
There are a few interesting snippets of news for us as cruisers.
First of all, they were not that upbeat about how fast cruising will return in the USA.
They said that while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Framework
for Conditional Sailing Order is a step forward,
there remain 'significant uncertainties’ when it comes to certain requirements,
including the technical instructions that need to be issued by the CDC for future phases.
The CDC has only issued the ones related to crew at time of recording,
with no timeline confirmed on when the rest will come.
Secondly, they confirmed that overall demand for cruising is pretty good
looking ahead, certainly by past cruisers.
While bookings for the first half of 2021 are lower
than pre-pandemic levels, they have better demand for the second half of 2021,
reflecting (as I spoke earlier) the hope cruisers have that by then
things will be more back to normal.
They also had great success with the launch of 2022 / 2023 itineraries for Oceania and Regent
Seven Seas, again showing cruisers are optimistic about cruising returning in years ahead.
The majority of bookings, around 70%, are by people using future cruise credits from cancelled
cruises. So, as to be expected, cruise vacations are appealing to more seasoned cruisers for now.
One of the stages for resumption of cruising in the USA, as laid down
by the CDC, is for the cruise lines to run a series of “simulated cruises” to
test all the new protocols - and run tests of proposed quarantine and evacuation procedures.
Many cruisers have said they would be keen,
and have asked how to volunteer. So what is the latest news on these test cruises?
At this stage, the lines are all saying it is too early.
They still have to agree when and in what form these will be and then who can take part.
It is possible members of the public will be considered,
as hinted recently by Royal Caribbean on a call with travels agents.
All we know is that the CDC require volunteers
to be over 18, be able to have a signed certificate from their doctor saying they
do not have pre-existing medical conditions making them vulnerable for contracting Covid,
that it cannot be for payment or in return for future employment,
that they agree to follow all the protocols like masks and testing
and that people need to be prepared to take part in the full testing and simulations.
So, it may not be that much fun as the ships may not even sail anywhere and this
could all be done in port and may require doing numerous drills and run throughs.
But will involve dining, entertainment and events that will be run once cruising resumes.
So, something to think about. As soon as I have more news I will include in these updates.
Those are the biggest news stories breaking that I felt you need to know about,
and what I think they mean for us as cruise lovers.
I have loads more Tips For Travellers episodes
full of cruising advice and tips, so what not enjoy another one right now?