Let's look at three signs of the times for September 2022.
Seiko watches you know 'em and you love 'em. Two models in particular lead Seiko
sales on Chrono24, and they're probably not what you're expecting. Next, women have been
gaining long overdue attention in the watch world in recent years. We'll answer the simple question:
what are they buying? And finally, prices for hype watches are still falling, but the come
down is starting to slow down. We'll look at a few key models to see what the future may hold.
Welcome back to Time is Money: where the clock is always ticking and money is always moving.
For many, Seiko is their first watch, and for many others, Seiko is their next watch. We at Chrono24 have
looked at the marketplace data to find the top selling Seikos for 2022, and the results may
surprise you. Also, if Seiko watches are your thing, be sure to check out the Short on Time episode
we did about the brand and our tour of the Seiko Museum in Tokyo. If we look at the top five best
sellers, we see various Seiko 5 models in the mix. At number five is the travel-ready SSK003K1.
At number four is the sleek 37 millimeter Sn79J1. The military style SNK805K2 takes
the number three slot. And here's where things get interesting. We have a pair of Arabic dial
Seiko watches at number one and number two. These numerals would be more accurately described as
Hindu-Arabic or Indo-Arabic, but that's a separate video. However you refer to them, the 42 millimeter
SNKP21J1 and the number one best-selling 34 millimeter SNK063J5 are the surprise hits for
Seiko watch sales on Chrono24 this year. Now, if you're active in the watch collector corner of
Instagram, you may have seen these popping up with increasing frequency over the summer. We
looked at the data and we saw spikes in sales correlating to posts from one popular account.
@watchesofespionage is a niche but influential account covering the intersection of watches and
spycraft, run by an anonymous former CIA operative. Followers of the account will remember that WOE
published an article detailing his love for these Seiko references in early August of this year.
Subsequently, sales for these two references spiked significantly on Chrono24 and other platforms in
the following weeks. We reached out to the account admin for commentary, and he says the following:
"In January 2022, I stumbled across the Arabic Dial Seikos while shopping online. Having spent much
of my adult life living, working, and traveling in the Middle East, I have a strong affinity for the
rich culture and language of the Arab world, and I've always been fascinated with Arabic dials. I
quickly ordered the larger 42 millimeter SNKP21J1, and after a few weeks on the wrist, posted it
on my Instagram feed @watchesofespionage." "It was a unique and undiscovered but mass-produced watch,
a rarity in the internet age. It is also affordable and sub two hundred dollars. Even first-time buyers
could afford it, a fun way to dip their toe into the world of horology." This is of course one rather
specific example of social media effect in the watch market. Much has been as said about these
effects on hype watches like the Rolex Daytona, the AP Royal Oak and the Patek Philippe Nautilus, but it
goes to show that watches at all price points are fair game for this type of influence, and it
indicates that the connection between digital conversations and market value is here to stay.
This next one goes out to all the ladies in the audience, or frankly, anyone who's into watches.
We at Chrono24 have taken a top level look at which watches sell the best among the fairer
sex. Women have always been present in watches as consumers, as writers, as consultants, as executives
and more. Recent years have seen an uptick in the visibility of women in the industry. There are
groups for enthusiasts and professionals like Watch Femme. Female collectors are cropping up
more and more on Instagram. And you have women in high level leadership positions like Ginny
Wright, CEO of the Americas for Audemars Piguet or Catherine Renier, global CEO of Jaeger-LeCoultre. When it
comes to purchasing preferences among female consumers, we see a few trends emerge. Women are
twice as likely to purchase two-tone watches and three times as likely to buy yellow gold.
Quartz watches are twice as popular among women at 31% versus 16%, although we should
note that many watches designed as "women's watches" tend to feature quartz movement, so
the deck is slightly stacked from the start. You could say the same for a mother of pearl dials
as well, which seem to be the only statistically significant outlier for dial preference among the
sexes. 48% of watch sales to women on Chrono24 are for Rolex and that's compared to 37%
for men. Women are also three times more likely to buy Cartier than their male counterparts.
As a quick rundown for the top sellers, we've got the 26 millimeter Datejust in the top slot.
The Cartier Panthere, known as The It Girl watch by @Dimepiece fans comes in at number two.
The 39 millimeter Speedmaster Reduced lands at number three. The Breitling Lady J sits at number
four. For a statement piece, we've got the TAG Heuer Monaco caliber 12 at number five. And as
an honorable mention, that 34 millimeter Arabic Dial Seiko that we mentioned earlier comes in
at number six. Finally when it comes to purchase price, women spend more per watch than men at 4.1
K on average versus 3.6 K for the fellas.
Now we turn to the hype watch segment of the market for a quick check-in.
In our August episode of Time is Money, we covered what is shaping up to be the
biggest watch story of 2022: prices for in-demand watches falling for the first time in years. But
what has happened in the market since then? Much of the discussion around hype watches has centered on
three models: the Rolex Daytona, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, and the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711.
For the luxury market, supply on Chrono24 is the highest it's been all year across
the board, continuing with the upward slope that began in January of 2022.
There are likely two narratives at play here. One, sellers began liquidating their supply earlier in
the year as prices continued to reach astronomic levels. And later on, professional dealers and
private collectors listed more watches for sale through spring and summer as prices began to fall,
thus hoping to "sell high" before it was too late. When we looked at demand, it's more of a mixed bag.
We're currently seeing slight upticks in recent wweks for models like the current production
Rolex Daytona, Rolex Submariner and the AP Royal Oak. This is more pronounced in the US
than it is in the EU. But demand is still sliding slightly for the Pepsi GMT and the Batman GMT.
The greatest spikes in demand came at the beginning of the year when the collective
enthusiasm around "investment watches" was at its peak. The demand since then, meaning the number
of offers and purchase requests on Chrono24, has largely stabilized from springtime onwards even as
prices decreased and supply surged. Zooming out a bit, it's important to note that the average sale
prices of these watches on Chrono24 is still well above their suggested retail prices: we're looking
at roughly 3x for the Daytona and roughly 4.5x for the Royal Oak and the Patek 5711.
And, for what it's worth, sales volume on Chrono24 is up 42% compared to this time last year.
On the lower end of the market, the MoonSwatch has largely leveled out following high secondary
market prices upon its release. What retails for a few hundred dollars sold for an average of $2,000
on Chrono24 in March of this year. Those prices have since settled closer to $500 on our site.
There is one notable exception here. It's a blue MoonSwatch, but no, it's not the "Tiffany blue" Mission to Uranus
version. The darker blue Mission to Neptune has nearly doubled in market price in
the last few months. And the reason behind this is somewhat surprising. The blue dye used for the
bioceramic case has been known to leave a blue residue on the rest of its wearers. The Swatch
Group subsequently stopped selling this version amidst these concerns. This decreased supply on
the market and led to an increase in demand. Now prices on Chrono24 range anywhere from $2,000 to $4,000.
I guess it goes to show that economics is not always rational.
And there you have it, a snapshot of the secondary watch market for September 2022. We'll see you next month for
another episode of Time is Money. Because time only moves in one direction, but the market does not.