In 1986, the Philippines overthrew its dictator, Ferdinand Marcos.
Over the course of almost 20 years, he'd plundered the country mercilessly and overseen
a brutal regime that was responsible for widespread human rights abuses.
And yet, in May 2022, the country elected his son, Ferdinand Marcos Jnr., as its new president.
So, how did it happen? and could we now be about to see
a return to authoritarianism in the Philippines?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security and statehood.
There are some countries where politics becomes a family affair.
The United States is one obvious example
where the child of a former president has assumed the country's highest office.
But it's far from alone.
Other cases include Canada, Estonia, Ireland, Kenya, Malaysia, Singapore,
Palau, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
In India and Greece, the political dynasty has even extended to a third generation.
But perhaps no other country has taken it quite as far as the Philippines.
There it isn't just one family that's emerged to take the presidency, but several.
However, it's the victory of Ferdinand Marcos in the country's latest presidential election
that's brought it to international attention.
The son of the Philippines' former dictator, his decisive win has been met with deep concern
from many of those who lived through his father's era.
So, why would the country want to see the return of a family so linked with corruption and cruelty.
The Philippines lie in south east Asia.
At around 300,000 square kilometers,
or 120,000 square miles, it's the 72nd largest member of the United Nations.
Made up of over 7,000 islands, its immediate neighbours are China and Taiwan,
Japan, Palau, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
The population currently stands at around 110 million.
Highly diverse, the country has over 130 ethnolinguistic groups.
However, the vast majority are christian;
with catholics representing around 80 percent of the population.
Approximately six percent are muslim.
First settled around 30,000 years ago, our story really begins in the middle of the 16th century
when Spanish explorers claimed the islands; naming them after the King of Spain, Philip II.
Having established the first permanent settlement in what is now Manila,
the country's capital, the territory became
a vital hub for trade with the Spanish colonies on the west coast of the Americas.
After 300 years, Spanish colonial rule came to an end in 1898
when the islands were seized by the United States during its war with Spain.
Although still under U.S. control, the country gradually gained greater self-rule
becoming the Commonwealth of the Philippines in 1935,
with a constitution and political system closely modelled on the United States.
And while it was occupied by Japan during the Second World War,
on 4 July 1946, the Republic of the Philippines gained its full independence.
From the start, the country faced
serious problems, including food shortages and high inflation.
As a result, it remained heavily dependent on the United States,
which retained military bases in the country.
However, by the late 1950s tensions were emerging with Washington.
As well as opposing any involvement in the conflict in nearby Vietnam,
calls began to grow for the return of U.S. held land.
In 1965, the country's liberal president, Diosdado Macapagal,
was defeated by Ferdinand Marcos, the president of the senate.
The son of a politician, Marcos was already highly controversial.
As a teenager, he'd been found guilty of the assassination of
one of his father's political opponents - a verdict later overturned on appeal.
Despite this, at first there was little sign of what was to come.
As well as overseeing an ambitious program of public works and domestic reforms,
Marcos built the country's regional ties - ensuring the Philippines
became a founding member of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
He also strengthened relations with Washington, sending 2,000 combat engineers to Vietnam.
All this, however, began to change in 1969 when Marcos won a second term in office.
With the country facing an emerging maoist insurgency,
a muslim separatist campaign in the south, and widespread student demonstrations,
Marcos imposed martial law on the 21 September 1972.
As well as suspending parliament and arresting key opposition figures,
the regime brutally cracked down on any dissent.
This led to a catalogue of human rights abuses, including summary executions,
disappearances, mass detentions, and torture.
Meanwhile, the country also became increasingly
corrupt as Marcos and his cronies siphoned off vast sums of money.
Indeed, later estimates suggest that he may have stolen as much as 5 to 10
billion U.S. dollars from the country.
This in turn fed his family's lavish lifestyle and in later years pictures of his wife
Imelda's huge shoe collection would become an international symbol of their extravagance.
Although martial law was eventually lifted in January 1981, the oppression remained.
But while Marcos retained close ties with the United States, which continued to see him as
an important bulwark against communism in southeast Asia, things were changing.
In august 1983, Benigno Aquino, a key opposition leader, was assassinated.
As popular anger grew, Marcos called a snap presidential election in February 1986.
But despite claiming victory, senior religious and military leaders threw
their support behind his opponent, Corazon "Cory" Aquino; Benigno Aquino's widow.
Amidst widespread protests,
Marcos fled the country - dying in exile in Hawaii just three years later.
In the years that followed,
the Philippines attempted to rebuild its democracy - albeit with mixed result.
Highly admired at home and abroad, Cory Aquino introduced wide-ranging reforms,
including a new constitution imposing a single six-year presidential term limit.
Nevertheless, she faced serious challenges to her authority,
including several attempted coups by Marcos loyalists.
In 1992, she was succeeded by Fidel Ramos, a respected former commander of the armed forces,
who was in turn followed by Joseph Estrada.
However, Estrada's term was cut short three years later
when he was forced from office after being impeached for corruption.
Thereafter, the next two presidents were in fact children of former presidents.
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who held office until 2010,
was the daughter of Diosdado Macapagal; beaten by Marcos in 1966.
Then came Benigno Aquino III, the son of Cory and Benigno Aquino.
And this brings us to the country's current and most controversial president
since the return to democracy: Rodrigo Duterte.
Assuming office in 2016, he quickly gained international notoriety when he publicly ordered
police to kill suspected drug dealers - a policy that's been widely condemned by human rights
groups, UN experts, and has even led to an investigation by the International Criminal Court.
On top of this, there have also been serious concerns about the
wider erosion of human rights and democracy in the country.
This came to international attention in 2021 when journalist Maria Ressa won the Nobel
Peace Prize for her efforts to investigate the government's extrajudicial killings
and its efforts to undermine democracy by "spreading fake,
news harassing opponents, and manipulating public discourse."
It's against this backdrop that the country went to the polls on 9 May 2022
to elect its next president.
In the end, it came down to two main candidates.
The first was Maria "Leni" Robredo.
Already serving as vice president under the country's unusual system of separately
elected presidents and vice presidents, and standing as a liberal, she campaigned on a
promise to clamp down on corruption, protect human rights and limit political dynasties.
Against her stood Ferdinand Marcos Jr., better known by his nickname "Bongbong".
In stark contrast to his opponent, he ran on a highly populist platform and
openly aligned himself with Duterte, who remains popular in many quarters.
And in the end Marcos won by a landslide securing almost 60 percent of the vote,
compared to just under 30 percent for Robredo.
So, how did this happen?
In truth, there are a few factors that played a part.
For a start, this wasn't a sweeping return to politics by the Marcos family.
They have in fact been closely involved in the country's affairs
since 1991, when they returned from exile following the death of Marcos senior.
Indeed, just a year later, his widow - Imelda, Bongbong's mother - stood for the presidency,
later winning a seat in the House of Representatives.
Then, in 2019, Marcos's daughter, Bongbong's sister, became a senator.
As for Marcos junior, he's also had a long history in politics.
Having won a seat in the House of Representatives in 1992, he became a regional governor in 1998,
before returning to the House in 2007, and then sitting in the Senate between 2010 and 2016.
In this sense, the Marcos family never really left the country's political stage
and Marcos junior has been steadily working towards the presidency for most of his life.
Secondly, demographics played its part.
The Philippines has an extremely young population.
The large majority are under 40.
Given that it's now over three and a half decades since Marcos senior was deposed,
most people have little or no real recollection of his era.
But there was also a concerted effort to erase the past.
Observers noted how Marcos deliberately focused his campaign on social media,
avoiding press interviews and even refusing to take part in the presidential debates.
This not only allowed him to avoid tricky questions about his father's brutal record,
and the family's ill-gotten gains, it meant he could craft his own message;
one that presented his father as the great leader of a golden age.
Finally, his overtly populist message played well
in a country also struggling with the effects of COVID.
His promises of lavish spending on social programs and infrastructure
won widespread support - even though critics point out that his plans have not been properly costed.
So, this all raises the obvious question of what it's likely to mean?
At this stage, Marcos is attempting to present himself as his own man,
calling on people not to judge him by his ancestors but by his actions.
But there's clearly serious concerns about what happens now in the Philippines.
Indeed, his victory was greeted with horror by victims of his father's regime
and has led to protests by many human rights groups.
For many observers, Marcos's efforts to wash away his family's record of corruption and brutality,
his unapologetic populism, and his apparent intention to follow many
of his predecessor's controversial domestic policies, are all extremely troubling signs.
But rather than see it as the start of a new era of repression,
it might be more accurate to think of it as potentially a continuation
of a path that the country has already been on for the past six years.
This naturally raises the question about whether he'll try to hold on to power like his father.
Of course, it's still far too early to tell.
However there are some interesting points to consider.
Aside from the constitutional term limit, it's worth noting that his new
vice president is Sarah Duterte, the daughter of the outgoing president.
With suggestions that she'll run for the presidency in 2028,
and given her father's continuing popularity,
this could make it tricky for Marcos to hold on to power, even if he wants to.
But even if he does step aside,
it seems unlikely that the Philippines will have seen the end of the Marcos family.
Already, his 28 year old son, Ferdinand III, has embarked on a political career - winning a
seat in the House of Representatives at the same time as his father won the presidency.
And if things do play out as perhaps planned, he will reach 40 - the constitutionally
required age to hold the presidency - just months before the 2034 election.
Of course, the Philippines isn't the only country facing questions
about human rights and its president.
Here's a video I've recently done on El Salvador that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.