Voter insurgency.
Political parties, republican
and democratic, assessing
populist forces affecting the
current presidential campaign.
Insight from political
activists, democrat Jeff Link
and republican Doug Gross, on
this edition of Iowa Press.
Funding for Iowa Press was
provided by Friends, the Iowa
Public Television Foundation.
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Here is Dean Borg.
Borg: The current presidential
campaign is bewildering some
political observers.
Others are finding it
entertaining and some say scary.
But voters are speaking through
presidential nominating
primaries and caucuses.
Iowa has its own political
carnival, if you can call it
that.
Six-term incumbent Senator
Charles Grassley has four
democrats vying to take his seat
after 36 years.
And seven-term republican
Congressman Steve King, after 14
years, being challenged by
another republican to even be on
November's ballot for
re-election.
Many are asking what's going on.
So, we're looking for analysis
from democratic strategist Jeff
Link, beginning with former
President Bill Clinton in the
'90s, Jeff's campaign experience
includes former Iowa Senator Tom
Harkin and President Barack
Obama.
And republican Doug Gross, now a
Des Moines attorney, is a
Statehouse veteran, chief of
staff during the early Branstad
administrations, ran
unsuccessfully for Governor
against Tom Vilsack.
Gentlemen, good to have you back
in the Iowa Press chairs.
Gross: Good to be with you.
Borg: And, Jeff, I've referenced
the Clinton campaign.
Are you committed to Hillary in
this election cycle?
Link: Yes, I'm supporting
Secretary Clinton.
I'm not working on the campaign,
but I'm a volunteer and
supporter.
Borg: And, Doug, we've whittled
down from 16 or 17 in the
republican, do you have a
favorite now?
Gross: I have a lot of
non-favorites, Dean, which we'll
probably talk about.
Obradovich: There's a lot of
non-favorites to choose from
isn't there, Doug?
Gross: There are.
Borg: Let me get the roundtable
started here and introduce Des
Moines Register Political
Columnist Kathie Obradovich and
Radio Iowa's News Director.
Kathie -- did I say Kay
Henderson?
I'm sorry if I didn't.
Radio Iowa's News Director Kay
Henderson.
Welcome, Kay.
Kathie, I was so anxious to ask
the question that I forgot to
mention her name.
Do we have essentially the
nominees?
Obradovich: Pretty close.
Donald Trump has California.
He is doing well in the polls.
He doesn't have to win all of
the delegates that are left, he
has to win less than half of the
delegates to get to that magic
number of 1,237, which will make
him the nominee on the first
ballot in Cleveland.
If he does not go into Cleveland
with enough delegates to win on
the first ballot then things I
think are up in the air.
And then on the democratic side,
Hillary Clinton is very close as
well.
Henderson: I think the
chit-chatter among folks will
shift from can they win the
nomination now to who else might
run as a third party?
This past week you had Donald
Trump start to tweak Bernie
Sanders and say, oh I think he
should run as a third-party
candidate, number one, so you
have Donald trying to get Bernie
to commit to running as an
independent.
And then you have a group of
republicans who are in the never
Trump category who are sort of
searching around is there
someone who runs as a
constitutionalist or a
libertarian?
They're trying to decide whether
they can all settle on a
third-party candidate.
Borg: Is that what we see in
Doug Gross?
Henderson: Well, I don't know --
Gross: I'm going to announce
today, yeah.
Henderson: Are you solidly never
Trump?
Gross: I don't know how I could
vote for Donald Trump or Ted
Cruz or Hillary Clinton and I
think there's a lot of
republicans that are sort of in
that basket.
It's really an odd position to
be in for someone who has been
involved in politics pretty much
my whole life.
I don't know how we've got 315
million people and we end up
with these candidates, it's just
hard to figure out.
Obradovich: Is there somebody
out there that you might
consider for a third-party or
independent?
Gross: Oh, a guy like Paul Ryan
would be awesome.
But he has pretty much put
himself in a position where he's
not going to be considered for
that and I think wisely so
because normally when you see a
car accident happen you don't
run to it, you try to avoid it.
And for republicans we see this
year as a car accident waiting
to happen.
A lot of us are just waiting for
it to happen so we can try to
pick up the pieces and see what
happens -- Borg: Well, I'm
going to get to that in just a
moment on party unity.
Jeff, what do you think about
the democratic side?
Is there going to be -- is there
essentially a nominee right now?
And can the Sanders people be
brought into the fold?
Link: Yes, I think we do
essentially have a nominee.
Secretary Clinton has a
commanding lead in delegates,
both the pledged delegates and
the super delegates.
I think Sanders would have to
win 95% of all the remaining
delegates to win.
So it's not possible.
He is losing by 20 in Indiana,
he's losing in California.
So our race is essentially set.
Obradovich: Is the bigger
question whether Hillary Clinton
can hold onto his supporters?
I saw a poll in California where
45% of Sanders supporters said
they just won't vote.
Link: Yeah, and that moment just
before your candidate drops out
is when you have the hardest
feelings for the other
candidate.
So I think let's see what that
poll says a month after Clinton
secures the nomination.
Sanders has already taken steps
this week, he has laid off over
200 staffers.
They're starting to wind down
this campaign and I think that's
when the tensions start to drop
as well.
Henderson: Last weekend ABC did
an interview with I believe it
was Charles Koch, who said, I
might vote for Hillary.
You're not in that -- Gross: I
can't handle Hillary, it's like
back to the future with the
Clinton's.
We had that once, we really
don't need it as a country
again.
And the rules never apply to
them.
And I don't want to go through
another cycle in this country
where we have a Clinton in the
White House and the rules never
apply.
Borg: But when you saw Koch say
that, Charles Koch, what did you
think?
Gross: Well, I thought the way I
think, which is where is the
candidate that represents the
interests that I think the
Republican Party stands for,
which is a loose coalition since
the Reagan years of Christian
conservatives, the business
community and working class
folks.
And it has been an unholy
alliance in some cases but it
has usually held together.
And that has just totally
splintered.
And now what we have is probably
our candidate is a misogynist
who could represent the
know-nothing party in the 1800s,
who also happens to be a
Mercantilist on economic issues.
That doesn't represent the
Republican Party that I know.
So where do we go?
That's what the Koch's are
saying, where do we go?
Borg: What are you thinking,
Kathie, about what you're
hearing here?
Obradovich: Well, so the
question has been raised, can
the Republican Party survive
this?
Can the Republican Party survive
this?
And what will it look like at
the end?
And I honestly don't know.
I think that we have certainly
predicted the demise of both
parties many, many times in the
past and they somehow manage to
rise out of the ashes, maybe it
takes them a cycle or two.
But what is left to pull
together here for the Republican
Party?
Borg: Well, look at what
happened this week, comments of
John Boehner against Ted Cruz.
Gross: We can't even talk about
those here.
Well, Lucifer I guess we can but
some of the other miserable
stuff we can't talk about.
He certainly as statesman, as a
former politician -- Borg: But
he knew, Doug, he knew what he
was saying there.
Gross: Absolutely, he feels that
way strongly and has felt that
way for a long time.
I don't know if you saw
Dickerson's interview with him
when he resigned the
Speakership, he effectively said
the same sort of things, that
they didn't -- the problem for
the Republican Party is we have
been stitched together by this
fealty toward some form of
limited government.
That is what has kept all these
coalitions together.
But some component of that
coalition decided that limited
government was no government and
so as a result they didn't want
to govern, didn't want to have
the capability of governing,
didn't want government to be
effective really at anything.
And as a result of that guys
like John Boehner hit the
sidelines, and as a result we
have candidates now that
represent interests that a lot
of us don't think are good.
Borg: But are we evolving toward
a third party?
Gross: I think the Republican
Party will have to be put back
together again.
I do think we've got a car
accident, we're headed toward
each other and we've got a car
accident and we've got to figure
out what pieces are left and
what can bring that group
together again.
Now, parties are great
assimilators, what they tend to
do and that's how they survive
is they take from pieces that
they understand that the
electorate wants and they try to
make a coalition out of it.
The question now is what would
that be.
And that jury is still out.
Obradovich: Go back to Reince
Priebus and his 2012 post-mortem
of the party said, that you have
to -- Gross: Some called it an
autopsy.
Obradovich: Yeah, well, soft
petal the social issues, lay off
immigrants, go after -- finding
ways to go after minorities.
Do you think that could come
back again as a possible way to
-- Gross: I really see our
country in many ways like our
country was in the 1890s where
you had tremendous growth in
technology, tremendous growth in
the economy and as a result some
people benefited enormously, the
JP Morgan's of the world, the
Zuckerberg's of the world and
other people are left behind.
And the government didn't catch
up to deal with the changes in
society that were rapidly
occurring.
Today we have technology and
globalization doing the same
thing, causing tons of
disaffection.
But the parties, our party
hasn't caught up.
And the question is, I do think
we need a reform agenda in the
Republican Party if we're going
to survive and we don't have it
yet.
Henderson: Jeff, is Trump your
worst nightmare because you
don't know what's going to
happen with him?
Everyone has predicted his
demise, he has currently
received more votes than any
other republican presidential
candidate, is there an
overconfidence that Hillary
Clinton can prevail if she is
running against Donald Trump?
Link: No, I don't think there's
an overconfidence.
I think that Donald Trump is
going to be the gift that keeps
on giving all the way through
this election.
Henderson: So, with all due
respect, 16 other republicans
thought that too.
Link: Yeah, no it's true.
He has had staying power, he has
been able to make the most
ridiculous comments ever,
starting with the whopper on
John McCain early in the
campaign where he said
essentially that he liked guys
that didn't get caught during
the war.
That should have ended the
career of anyone who would say
that.
But he was able to survive that.
So I don't think anyone
discounts his ability to sort of
slip the sort of traditional
problems of a campaign, but I
think it has just been a
cacophony of things that are
starting to catch up with him.
Gross: I think he could win.
I think he could win.
And you've got to watch it.
For one reason is Hillary could
lose.
And if you look at Hillary's
numbers they're not great.
Her disapprovals are very high.
People are tired of the
Clinton's, it's not just me,
lots of folks are tired of the
Clinton's and they don't really
want that to come back again.
And there are portion of her
party that is the flip of the
coin of the Trump side on the
populist side that are very
disaffected and don't want an
establishment person like
Hillary Clinton to be president.
Borg: Except he has to bring
women into the fold.
Gross: Particularly suburban
women and he has done everything
he can to make sure they're
driven the other way.
Link: And is doubling down on
that this week and it is just
absolutely making it worse.
Gross: But, the reason why I
think he can win is because he
has fundamentally changed our
politics.
The reason why people like us
haven't been able to predict
this is because he has
fundamentally changed our
politics.
It's a performance like it has
never been before.
It's a reality TV show where you
decide which survivor stays on
the political stage and he's the
last one standing, he may well
be the last one in November as
well.
Borg: I want to change the
subject just a bit, Jeff.
Back to the Iowa Democratic
Party, you have some problems in
the caucuses and some assessment
right now about four years from
now.
Do you think that the Iowa
Caucuses, as a result of what
happened, republican eight years
ago, democratic this time, and
you're trying to make some
repairs and adjustments in that
party, is Iowa likely to have
the same reputation and role
four years from now?
Link: I think we will.
I think what the Commission will
do is look at the caucus
process, they're going to
probably offer some tweaks to
try and make it better.
But essentially the biggest
challenge we had was we didn't
have rooms that were big enough
to hold all the attenders.
I was at Lincoln High School and
it was supposed to be in the
show choir room, we ended up in
the cafeteria.
We had to file out of the room
and back in so people could be
counted through the doorway.
We had 600 people.
So that's a good problem to have
and that's manageable.
The other thing is thank God
Hillary Clinton won the Iowa
Caucuses because if she is
elected president Iowa will
remain first, we're going to be
in a good place.
That's why when Barack Obama won
the Iowa Caucuses there has
never been a question about the
democrat's calendar since Obama
has been in the White House.
Henderson: But you also have
this drum beat from the Donald,
this system is rigged on both
sides.
How do you sustain a continued
drum beat, especially if we get
President Trump, that both
parties need to dramatically
redo the way that they select
their presidential nominees?
Obradovich: Bernie Sanders has
said it too -- Link: Well, I'm
smiling because he's talking
about this rigged system that
he's winning.
He has triumphed at every stage
of this system that he hates and
thinks is so terrible.
So I don't know that he's going
to want to change it.
Gross: I think there has been
something going on here beneath
this comment about the system
being rigged.
What people don't understand is
Bernie Sanders may well have had
more people and probably did at
the Iowa Caucuses than Hillary
Clinton did, yet he didn't win.
And people don't understand why.
They don't understand the fact
that what your votes are
weighted by the turnout in the
general, previous general
election in your precinct.
They'll say, what does that have
to do with democracy?
What does that have to do with
my vote being equal to everybody
else's?
I think there's really something
to that and I think the
democrats are going to have to
take a look at that.
Obradovich: Jeff, are there
specific things you can do with
how you apportion delegates that
will make more sense to people
looking ahead in the future?
You can't refight the last
caucus, it doesn't work.
But looking ahead to the future,
are there ways that you can stay
first-in-the-nation vis-a-vis
New Hampshire without confusing
the heck out of people on how
these votes are counted?
Link: Yes, the big challenge of
course is that we have had a
symbiotic relationship with New
Hampshire for all these years
because they are the first
primary and we're something
other than a primary.
And that is why they allow us to
go first.
And so the more we look like a
primary the more it challenges
our relationship with New
Hampshire, which has served us
well in terms of keeping our
place in the calendar.
And so I think we can look at
things and try and make it
simpler and clearer.
My good friend, who also used to
work for Senator Harkin, Richard
Bender, is the person who
created this system -- Gross:
The architect.
Link: -- for those who know
Richard, this is simple in
Richard's mind, but it's not a
simple process.
Obradovich: Well, republicans
can have a statewide straw vote
-- Gross: And we can tie
delegates to it and we're still
okay.
I don't know why the democrats
can't do that.
Obradovich: I still haven't
gotten a good answer about why
democrats can't do that also.
Borg: As we approach the
November election, what will be
the effect of what we've been
talking about right now, I'll
start with you, Doug, on the
ticket as it goes down, we've
got Chuck Grassley and other
republicans depending on the
little coattail effect.
Is it going to be there?
Gross: It all depends upon what
happens to turnout.
If a lot of republicans are
disaffected by their nominee and
don't turn out because they
don't know who to vote for, they
don't have anybody to vote for,
there will be a landslide down
ticket for the democrats.
On the flip side, if a lot of
democrats, Bernie voters decide
I can't vote for Hillary
Clinton, there's no way, that's
the past, I want the future,
they don't turn out, the
republicans down ticket could do
very, very well.
So it all depends on what ends
up happening to turnout.
It's very difficult to predict
right now.
Likely I think Trump is going to
get people to turn out that
haven't turned out before
because the performance is going
to be so loud, there's going to
be so much awareness of what's
going on.
So I think he'll -- it's not
likely I don't think that
republicans will have a down
ticket loss.
Obradovich: Can you count though
on these people turning out for
Donald Trump voting a straight
ticket?
Gross: No, no.
A lot of them have never voted
before.
Link: And there was a statistic
this week also talking about
turnout that a million Hispanics
have registered to vote this
year and that the anticipated
turnout of Hispanics nationwide
will be about 13.1 million.
It was only 11 million in 2012.
That is where things could
really get devastating for
republicans, particularly
there's a close Senate race in
Arizona, John McCain is up.
I think Hillary Clinton could
win Arizona.
There's a lot of particularly
the Iowa Senate race, not
because of Hispanic
registration, but just this down
ticket drag from Trump.
Borg: Kay, what are you seeing
in the U.S.
Senate race?
Chuck Grassley seemingly
democrats for years really
waited a long time to even get a
candidate to run against, now we
have four democrats vying for a
right to be on the ticket to
take Chuck Grassley out.
And he has said it's not a slam
dunk.
Henderson: Right, he told Kathie
and I a couple of weeks ago that
this was not a slam dunk.
He said that this may be his
toughest race yet.
He is really feeling the heat
about this Supreme Court
nomination.
But he is holding the line that
there will be no vote in his
committee, no hearing in his
committee.
He has injected a new little
factoid in this debate, last
week he was speaking to Des
Moines Rotarians and he was
talking about how much they
would have to spend hiring
lawyers on the Judiciary
Committee to go over Merrick
Garland's record if we were to
have a hearing.
So he's going to start arguing
that he's saving taxpayers
money.
Gross: Particularly lawyer fees
if you want to put it like that.
Henderson: Says the two lawyers
over there.
Obradovich: You don't have to
pay a justice, you have only
eight instead of nine.
Borg: You're a longtime observer
of Chuck Grassley campaigns,
Doug, what are you seeing?
Gross: I think he's going to win
easily.
Chuck always runs like he's 20
points behind, that's why he
always wins, he's always scared
and you have to be that way to
earn the position.
Henderson: Jeff, you have
someone who you have worked with
a long time who is working for
Patty Judge.
Are you a Patty Judge supporter
as well?
Link: I am, I am.
I think Patty Judge is the
toughest candidate that Chuck
Grassley could face.
It's the first candidate that he
will have run against since
winning in 1980 that has been
elected to statewide office
before.
I think the fact that Patty is a
woman and what Trump is going to
do to damage the republican
brand among women voters is
going to be really troubling for
Grassley and I actually don't
think he's going to have an easy
time of it, I think he's going
to have a very difficult time.
The interesting thing about this
Supreme Court discussion is that
he has attached himself to
Donald Trump in a way that he
cannot now back away from
because he said, we're not going
to have a hearing, we're going
to let the voters speak and
we're going to let the new
president pick the next justice.
So essentially -- and he
certainly doesn't want Hillary
Clinton to pick.
So he is saying that he wants
Donald Trump picking the next
Supreme Court Justice.
And just this week on Pella
Radio he said that, well, I have
to admit it is a real gamble
letting Donald Trump pick.
So he's tying himself to Trump,
he is saying he wants Trump to
pick the next Supreme Court
Justice and then he's going to
have to find a way to walk away
from Trump in order to say I'm
my own person -- Gross: I'm not
suggesting the national trends
benefit Chuck Grassley.
I'm just saying Chuck Grassley
has formed a bond with Iowans
that allows him some immunity
from these national trends.
And it has always happened and I
think it will happen again.
Henderson: Back to Patty Judge,
she does face a primary.
It is maybe not a slam dunk that
she is going to win that.
She has an opponent in Rob
Hogue, a State Senator who has
been running for quite some
time, and people who are
supporting him criticize her
because of her ties to big
agriculture and his advocacy
they see for environmental
issues is a plus, on her pro and
con they list that as a minus.
How does she address concerns
among democrats that she has
been too cozy to big ag?
Link: Well, I think, first of
all, I think it takes a farmer
to run against Chuck Grassley.
Chuck Grassley has sort of made
it his hallmark that he's just a
farmer, he loves to talk about
that.
I don't think we can run a
lawyer against Chuck Grassley
and expect to have any success
in the fall.
I think her credentials in
agriculture, having a cow-calf
operation in Monroe County,
serving as Secretary of
Agriculture, serving as
Lieutenant Governor is going to
be a real benefit to her.
I think being in touch with the
rural economy, being in touch
with rural Iowa is essential for
the democratic message this
fall.
Gross: I don't think it's
certain that she's going to win
at all because I think this is
going to be like a surrogate
race for Bernie versus Hillary.
The establishment literally came
in and plucked Patty out of her
consultancy role for large
agricultural interests and
decided they were going to make
her the nominee and that is what
has been done.
Obradovich: I agree with Doug
that the primary is not settled,
that it is going to be an
interesting race and secondly,
also that Grassley is not as
vulnerable as people would like
to -- we focus on the things
that are different in the media,
but I remember back in 2009, my
first year as a political
columnist, and the Obamacare
demonstrations were going on and
the Tea Party demonstrations and
everyone picked out Chuck
Grassley talking about the
republican, the Obamacare death
panels and stuff like that, and
people said oh he's vulnerable.
No, not really.
Borg: Kay, in our final three
minutes here we have three
congressional districts that I
want to talk about, the first
district first of all.
Henderson: That's getting the
most national attention --
Borg: Because we have a freshman
Congressman there.
Henderson: There's a freshman
republican in Rod Blum and you
have a competitive race against
two people who ran against one
another last time around in
Monica Vernon and Pat Murphy,
Pat Murphy is very plugged into
union interests in the
neighborhood, if you will, and
Monica Vernon is getting support
from outside the district
because people think that she
would be the best foil.
And this kind of -- Gross: --
which I found interesting --
Henderson: In this kind of a
year when you have Hillary
Clinton at the top of the ticket
people think that Monica Vernon
would be the better foil against
Rod Blum.
Borg: Why did you find that
endorsement by Tom Miller --
Gross: Because Tom is a very
cautious politician and he has
won every time and he usually
doesn't get involved in
primaries.
He's from Dubuque where Larry is
from so there clearly is an
effort to try to make sure
Monica wins that primary.
Borg: Kathie, background the
third district for me.
Obradovich: Yes, so again
another freshman republican
Congressman in a district that
is leaning republican but not,
it has been a swing district in
the past.
Jim Mowrer who moved back to the
district, he had run against
Steve King before, so he is an
experienced candidate.
Mike Sherzan an interesting
businessman -- Gross: That's
who you should watch --
Obradovich: Very interesting,
he's got some great ads out.
Gross: Those are really good
ads.
Obradovich: And then Desmond
Adams, who ran for State Senate,
so again an experienced
candidate who is building some
interesting coalitions here,
especially in Polk County.
So I think that's going to be a
really interesting primary to
watch.
Gross: I agree with that.
Borg: Well, the primary to watch
is Steve King up in the fourth
district.
Gross: Absolutely, Bertrand and
King, wow what have we got going
here?
Henderson: What do you think is
going to happen?
Gross: What do I think is going
to -- I've been surprised that
Bertrand, once you announce, if
you're going to shoot the king
you've got to kill him,
literally and figuratively in
this case, and he has not gotten
out and done anything.
And I suspect you walk into Ames
in a cafe and ask them who Rick
Bertrand was nobody would know.
And so it has been surprising he
hasn't done anything.
Supposedly he's got a wad of
money from the outside that is
going to come in and make him
famous but they better start
making him famous quick.
Obradovich: We couldn't believe
that he wasn't at the fourth
district republican convention.
Gross: But Steve's not a very
good candidate, never has been,
he doesn't raise money, he
doesn't campaign, he hasn't
worked the east side of that
district.
He could be vulnerable easily.
But so far I don't see it.
Henderson: But at an
anti-establishment year, is he
going to be vulnerable?
Gross: He has been there for 12
years, 14 years, he has become
the establishment.
Obradovich: I want to hear what
you have to say about the third
district.
Link: Well, I think it's going
to be an interesting race.
I think Mowrer probably comes in
with an advantage because he ran
television commercials in the
last cycle, was for another
district but it still played
heavily in the current district.
But I think the Sherzan campaign
has put up some good initial
advertising and I think they're
going to make it competitive.
Obradovich: He's self-funding.
Does that matter do you think?
Link: Well, I think it's one of
the things that has helped
Trump.
And similarly, Sanders' argument
is reliant on the fact that he's
not taking big money --- Gross:
I think Sherzan will win that
primary.
Borg: I have to leave it there.
Thank you, all of you, Kay,
Kathie, Jeff, Doug, thanks for
your insights.
We'll be back next week with
another edition of Iowa Press.
It will be at 7:30 Friday night
and noon on Sunday.
I'm Dean Borg.
Thanks for joining us today.
♪♪
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