From here to 2069: the predictions on the reconquest of the Moon
What follows is a decade-by-decade account of the future of exploration of our moon.
From the present day until 2069, the 100th anniversary of the Apollo 11 descent.
It is no coincidence that we speak of exploration and not colonization...
we believe that the function of our satellite will be in the future more similar to that of
the current bases in Antarctica than to that of new land to inhabit and populate.
It is very likely that the Moon will become an outpost for scientific activities,
and the starting point for large interplanetary missions. But it will never be a place where
people will go to live and raise a family... Predicting the future is almost impossible anyway.
Who would have thought in 1972 that we would not return to the moon for at least 50 years?
There are doubts, cancellations, and delays on next year's missions,
let alone those of the next decades... Anyway, we have tried, mixing objective
evaluations with our personal opinions. A grand vision of the future is presented here,
envisioning the moon as a scientific outpost, a deep space training facility, a tourist
destination, and ultimately the first stage in humanity's ascent deeper into our solar system.
It will be up to you to judge, year after year if we got something right!
2025 - After leaving the magnificent and desolate lunar plains half a century ago,
NASA returns to the Moon with the Artemis 3 mission and two astronauts,
one of whom is a woman... SpaceX's Lunar Starship lands on the rim of the Shackleton Crater.
The main goal of the week-long mission is to explore the polar region and sample for water ice.
On Earth, the triumphant return to the Moon is followed live by more than 3 billion people.
The other space powers are not watching... China continues undaunted to launch its robotic
missions. In 2025 it is the turn of Chang'e 7, which will land near the lunar south pole
with a lander and a rover assisted by an orbiter. The purpose is to find water and look for lava
tubes where to build an underground base. By the end of the decade, even the first Chinese
astronauts will descend on the Moon. However, science is not the
only reason to go to the moon. It is likely that private companies,
such as Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin, will begin transporting mega-rich people
into Earth orbit in the early 20s. 2025 - SpaceX's crew Starship
#dearMoon flies around the Moon with Yusaku Maezawa and 8 selected crew members on board.
2025-2028 - In the years following the first landing, several Lunar Starships land on the rim
of the Shackleton Crater to establish the first human outpost on the Moon - Artemis Base Camp. For
the time being it's only temporarily inhabited. Artemis Base Camp is the prospective lunar base
that was proposed to be established at the end of the 2020s. It would consist of three main modules:
the Foundational Surface Habitat, the Habitable Mobility Platform, and the Lunar Terrain Vehicle.
It would support missions of up to two months and be used to study technologies to use on Mars.
2026 - Meanwhile, assembly of the Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway begins in orbit.
The station consists of a series of modules designed for habitation and experimentation,
and provides a sort of "spaceport" where spacecraft can be refueled and resupplied.
2028 - Russian space agency Roscosmos launch the Luna-28 rover to Moon South Pole
for a return sample mission. However, it is not yet clear how Russia will move in
the complex chessboard of lunar conquest. Will it go alone or together with China?
2029 - The Lunar Orbital Station is completed, and inaugurated by a SpaceX Falcon 12
that docks an unoccupied lunar lander. A week later,
a giant Space Launch System rocket brings an Orion spacecraft aboard the station,
with astronauts inside. Three astronauts transfer to the lander and descend to the lunar surface.
After their sortie on the moon, they return to the orbital station,
where the crew boards the Orion for the trip home. 2029 - On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of
the Apollo 11 landing, private flights with the circumnavigation of the Moon were organized.
Tickets for a single space tourist can cost up to $5 million.
2029: Following up on a vague agreement announced in 2021,
China and Russia formalize their joint commitment to build the International Lunar Research Station,
also located near the lunar south pole. 2030 - Artemis Base Camp is permanently inhabited.
2031 - ESA renounces for the moment its idea to build the "Moon Village",
a base open to all nations. It will continue to support the Artemis project.
2033 - A joint China-Russia mission brings six men to the site where materials and machinery have
been accumulated in previous years. This is the Amundsen Crater, 160 km from Artemis Base Camp.
Four large pressurized modules will serve as a laboratory and warehouse, while the astronauts
will stay in comfortable and spacious living units built inside a small lava tube found nearby.
2035 - Lunar explorers, both man and machine, begin to use
the moon's resources with some continuity. And the most obvious resource from the lunar
surface is regolith, which may be particularly harmful to human lungs, but is rich in things we
can't easily find on Earth. Such as helium-3, a clean energy source, and anorthite an important
mineral from which oxygen, aluminum, and building material are made. Extracting oxygen on the moon
is obviously useful for humans, but it is also a valuable component of rocket fuel.
The combination with hydrogen extracted from water ice deposits found at the lunar poles provides us
with propellant, making the moon a very attractive place to stop as we head deeper into space.
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2036 - First orbital fuel depot for rocket engines completed at Artemis Base Camp.
2036 - Activation of the Andromeda Satellite Constellation, composed of 24 satellites
in lunar orbit. They will ensure WIFI and GPS coverage for all lunar bases.
2037 -. As the exploitation of resources becomes heavier and more profitable,
nations not yet in possession of a base clamor for legislation that establishes a
priori who can do what on the Moon, without lunar exploration becoming a mad gold rush.
The Outer Space Treaty specifically prohibits nation-states from claiming territories in space
but does not prevent the exploitation of mineral resources.
Moreover, the treaty is not currently ratified by any of the major space powers. No article,
for example, provides protection for humanity's most important lunar archaeological sites:
the six Apollo landing sites. Something that is instead being clamored for by the United States.
A new Moon Treaty will therefore have to be approved to avoid a power struggle.
2037 - After a lengthy study phase, Japan too lands on the Moon with a five-man crew aboard
a SpaceX Starship. The intention of Japan is to build its own base connected to the Artemis Camp.
To do so, in the previous months has made arrive on the surface several housing modules and four
lunar rovers that will be used for long-range exploration. Rovers use the technology of
electric vehicles powered by solar cells and can accommodate two astronauts in missions up
to 42 days, with a cruise range on the total lunar surface of over 10,000 kilometers.
2039 - International agreements designate the Apollo landing sites as
"Solar System Heritage Sites," the first of their kind.
Tranquility Base, the site of Armstrong and Aldrin's first steps, is considered a sacred site.
2040 - The Land Concessions and Lunar Mineral Resources is established,
an international organization that under the auspices of the UN will aim to concession
lunar land. Not in property, but only in concession for 99 years.
2041 - A 50 cm diameter optical telescope is installed at the Russian-Chinese base.
2043 - Work begins on adapting an approximately 300-meter diameter lunar crater on the hidden
side of the Moon. The depression is intended to house the Lunar Crater Radio Telescope,
a NASA and ESA project. Excavation and shaping work is being performed by five robots that
will relentlessly walk the surface, removing soil that deviates from the parabolic shape.
The same robots will then lay down a metal mesh, and specialized (human) technicians will then
mount the instrumentation for receiving signals in the focus of the dish. The radio telescope
is expected to be operational in 2046. 2043 - The first lunar mass driver comes
into operation near Artemis Camp. It will launch tanks filled with oxygen and hydrogen produced on
the Moon towards the Gateway and towards the fuel depot located in low Earth orbit. A mass driver,
or space catapult, is an electromagnetic accelerator, in this case 1600 meters long,
that uses pulsed magnetic fields to launch loads from the lunar surface without having to resort
to expensive rocket systems. The advantage of a mass driver is that the acceleration device and
its energy source remain on Earth for reuse, rather than accompanying a load into space.
2046 - Blue Origin's lander lands on Moon for a scouting mission to confirm the
best location for Blue Moon Base. 2046 - On average 27 people are
permanently present on the Moon. 2051 - Mass driver at Amundsen
crater constructed to launch harvested helium-3 for use in fusion power plants.
2050 - Revolution in astronaut pressure suits. With advances in AI and soft robotics, there
is a proliferation of smart suits, With integrated augmented reality overlays and self-healing skins,
the suits become human-shaped support habitats, enabling long explorations on the lunar surface.
3D maps are projected by voice command into the visors assisted by satellite GPS.
Getting lost on the Moon is virtually impossible.
2052 - A couple of years late, the Lunar Crater Radio Telescope is operational on the hidden side
of the Moon. A team of 4 technicians and two astronomers alternate two-week shifts.
2054 - An expedition consisting of 4 men and a woman attempts to reach the slab of Drygalski
Crater by land using two half-tracks. The large crater (165 km) is about 300 km from Shakleton.
They estimate they can cover it in about one lunar month, but after a week of uncomfortable
up and downs the rugged terrain of the highlands forces the team to turn back.
2057 - On average, about 70 people are operating on the Moon.
2062 - A dome of 8 meters, transparent and filtering radiation is the first
artifact obtained on the Moon by a giant 3D printer. Installed at the Japanese base,
it serves as a cover for a vegetable garden in which all kinds of vegetables are grown.
In this decade, travel between low Earth orbit and Earth is as simple as booking a flight from
New York to London, and reusable rockets from companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin
have dramatically reduced costs. However, the fees are still prohibitive for most of the
Earth's population. As with the Antarctic, the lunar surface remains a place that
only a few hundred people can visit each year, and they are mostly scientists and researchers.
2066 - However, the 100th anniversary of the first landing is approaching,
and private companies are stepping up their efforts to meet the growing demand for a
"passage to the Moon."
2066 - Virgin Galactic establishes the first luxury hotel at the outskirts of Artemis Camp.
July 2069 - During this period about 200 people are recorded on the Moon.
July 20, 2069 - It is the day of celebration. A team of astronauts descends near Tranquility Base
and without compromising the integrity of the site, with the help of rocket drones,
broadcasts images of the LEM, frames at length the famous plaque
"Here men from planet Earth first set foot upon the Moon" and films the dense web of
footprints left in the regolith by Armstrong and Aldrin. Tourists, technicians, scientists,
and personalities rushed to the Moon to follow the ceremony from the screens of Artemis Camp.
There is a lot of emotional participation. Even on Earth, the magnificent desolation
described by Buzz Aldrin is on the screens all over the world.
In Rome, Osaka, and Billings, Montana, the only three people still alive who
remember having seen on TV the black and white images of the first landing,
express as best they can their bewilderment in front of this enormous leap in time.
We move forward, towards a future that is currently unfathomable.