Yes, you have heard me say I am pretty confident that this new Model Y Standard Range Plus,
is going to be using 4680 batteries. Now we have to forget things that we have been
told in the past. Tesla may have set out a nice clean tidy path for the future of the business,
and it looked great. We will have nickel batteries for longer range, and LFP batteries for standard
ranges and storage. More or less that was the plan, without going into to much detail.
Yup, that all made sense, looked great, wow, even a possibility that Tesla could bring out a $25,000
vehicle if that was the case. Everyone was happy, shareholders felt like this
was a great company to remain invested, and avid Tesla fans, could now one day be
an avid Tesla owner, because everyone, and I do just about mean everyone,
can afford a $25,000 Tesla, as long as you are eligible for the finance.
But the world
is a drastically different place today, do you think companies have the ability
to keep the same direction and plans before all this happened. Supply chains are down,
and commodity prices are unstable. Abundant necessary resources, are now scarce and expensive.
Alternatives need to be found in some cases. A new plan needs to be derived.
It goes back to first principles.
Tesla look at what their supply chains are now, what can they do with them,
that works best for the overall mission. In addition to that Tesla's industry has also
changed. Prior to the war, Tesla's demand was already reaching crazy levels. There were enough
people who were purchasing a Tesla out of luxury, but now we people are willing to pay more, to buy
an electric vehicle out of necessity. The world changed, you can't be dependent on gas prices.
So things are up in the air right now, and Tesla needs to make some decisions.
This is no longer such a consumer oriented company. Tesla will do what they can to make
the most products they can. Rather than being entitled, saying they wanted a Performance 4680,
or Cyber Truck, or feel owed a $25,000 Tesla. Tesla has bigger fish to fry right now.
Now
some people have started to speculate that these 279 mile range vehicles, are actually
using LFP batteries. And they are also saying that they are making these LFP vehicles in Texas.
So I thought we could explore the possibility of Tesla making vehicles with LFP batteries in Texas.
It’s just that in this Texas factory, well there
is a massive 4680 battery production line. In fact the largest battery factory in the world for
potential output. So to me, it would immediately make sense to use the batteries created in the
same factory. Rather than having to ship these very heavy batteries from China to Texas.
Umm, they already do that right now.
The standard range Model 3, actually has batteries delivered across the Pacific Ocean to California.
You know what's also in the Pacific Ocean, California. In order to get these very heavy
batteries to Texas, well, you would have to end up going through the Panama Canal.
And then you have to still get the batteries to Texas, likely via rail and road. Rail is 10x the
cost of shipping per mile, and road is 100x. And again, remember how heavy these items are.
Either way my point is that this is a long way to have to send LFP batteries, and will add massively
to cost and logistics. When compared to making batteries on site, from the big battery factory
on site. In fact if I recall, Elon often talks about how important it is to making batteries
on site, due to the extra transport costs. China is almost the other side of the world from Texas.
Alright, but what about the Standard Range Model Y in Shanghai. It gets 230 miles EPA equivalent,
and is LFP. We are only talking about an extra 50 miles of range, or 22% more range.
Surely we can reach that. Well this a 60 kWh battery. So we can
just add another 22% more batteries, then all we need is 73 kWh battery.
Except at 125 Wh per kg, you just added 104 additional kilograms of weight,
in the batteries alone. Probably an additional weight of 250 lbs,
with potentially additional weight in the battery pack.
Oh what does that mean? Well it means that you actually aren't getting 279
miles of range simply by adding a larger battery due to this additional weight,
that needs to be compensated for. Therefore you are looking at closer to an 78 kWh battery.
And we are not compensating for 250 lbs, we are compensating for additional 400 lbs of weight,
due to 18 extra kWh of batteries required to reach this 279 mile range.
Actually Tesla Economist,
you are completely wrong. Weren't you paying any attention on battery day?
Tesla are making structural battery packs, they get 16% more range just from that. 230 miles,
that alone would be 269 miles, and probably not too hard to get the additional 10 miles
through other means. Sure, which is why Tesla have been making LFP structural battery packs
this whole time. That's part of the reason they beat the Chinese so much on range. Tesla LFP is
already benefiting from structural battery packs.
But whoa,
an extra 400 lbs, now I own an LFP Tesla. It's absolutely remarkable,
and I highly recommend it. But I assure you, it would not be close to the car it is today, if you
add an additional 400 lbs weight. Well actually the BYD Han did something similar to this,
they are using a 77 kWh LFP battery in the Han to get a tolerable range of 260 kms. Oh, wow,
that's pretty close, and if BYD can, then surely Tesla can too. What are we talking about? Tesla
already are hitting that much range LFP, well 267 miles even, with the Model 3, which is using LFP.
Except Tesla are doing that with 60 kWh. Yea, that extra weight,
means that BYD can only accelerate to 60 mph in 8 seconds. For the record,
8 secs is slow for even an ICE car. Could you ever begin to imagine a Tesla with a specification of
8 seconds to 60. I dont think so. Oh and Tesla would need even more batteries than BYD.
But it doesn't stop there, this is a sedan. Model Y is an SUV cross-over, it is bigger and heavier,
and as we just saw, weight affects range. Comparing a standard Y and 3,
we have a difference of nearly 40 miles.
And not only that,
it is a rear wheel drive vehicle. We know this new Model Y is AWD. In fact other than the range,
that is all we know. Now when you add an additional motor and power train in a car,
well that's more weight again. Check how much range cars lose going from RWD to AWD.
When Tesla used to offer a RWD and AWD Long Range, the RWD would get 15 more miles of range.
Whoa! We just lost 15 miles of range. Ok, it looks like we are back down to from a model of 279 miles
of range with 78 kWh battery, down now to only 264 miles of range, as we have an AWD drive train.
Oh no, we need 6% more range again. Which is probably going to be 10% more batteries. So we
now have a Tesla with 86 kWh. This is now a very heavy car, and would not handle particularly well,
which is one of the main great benefits of a Tesla, the performance.
Elon has said in
the past that he doesn't see the point of larger batteries, describing them as a bag of potatoes.
Indicating that it would be beneficial to move in the direction of fewer batteries not more.
He also said that we would be able to bring the batteries into the center, if there were fewer,
further improving safety and handling. This direction would be in contrary to that.
Also we are now consuming about 50%
more LFP batteries in this vehicle than we do in one standard range Model 3.
There are opportunity costs to consider. Tesla are battery constrained,
does it make sense to reduce your output by 1/3? Resulting in less gross profit?
But what about BYD, could it be that BYD are
supplying these batteries, and BYD Blade batteries are a cut above the rest. Well for starters I just
told you that it takes 78 kWh for BYD to get just 260 miles of range, with Blade batteries. So no,
this is not due to BYD's incredible Blade technology. Not to mention, I think that Tesla
have a really solid contract with CATL, that may even have even disallow Tesla using BYD.
Umm actually shows what you know, BYD are supplying Tesla. Right according to the
Adam Jonas report from Morgan Stanley. It says Tesla are using the top 4 battery suppliers,
and the 4th is BYD. Ok, well I am not taking his word, there was quite a bit of inaccurate
facts in that report. It doesn't mention BYD by name, and it may be someone like SKI.
But maybe it is BYD, it would be interesting to know. Either way,
from what I can tell BYD have an even lower energy density than CATL's LFP.
Well what if
its not just battery day advances, but a new motor or power train.
Well I think that's what I didn't expect from the Plaid, this absolutely ridonculous motor.
Well the motor is what helped Tesla get the insane acceleration times, I didn't appear to make any
major jumps in range. A more efficient power train will help, but we are talking some serious jumps.
Basically I think the only way for Tesla to
achieve this level of range with LFP would mean an 88 kWh battery. Which would make it a total dog to
drive. But also I doubt there is close to enough space to even fit this many batteries anyway. On
top of that, the cost is also starting to climb, batteries are the most expensive element, it’s
not a good idea to add more, and increase costs, especially with commodity prices the way they are.
Also on top of that all the CATL, who currently supply all of Tesla’s LFP,
built a new factory, which is where the extra CATL LFP batteries are coming from.
This factory is coincidentally just a few blocks away from Giga Shanghai. Now do you
think they will be shipping these batteries to Giga Shanghai, or all the way to Texas?
The only other way possible is that some how Tesla, CATL or BYD have developed some insanely
revolutionary new battery. I think there is no way Tesla want a car that heavy, or want to consume
that many batteries. I think Tesla have their own in-house LFP batteries coming that may be
capable of this, but we are 2 years away still. I don't think it is feasible to ship LFP to Texas. I
think Kato Rd can supply enough 4680 whilst Tesla ramping up, until the real battery factory comes
online. I think there is no possible way these are LFP, unless they are using alien technology.
So if it does turn out to be LFP, well Tesla has just jumped 2 years in technology,
and I will be blown away, hence why I hope these are LFP.