JACK: ENERGY PRICES ON THE RISE
IN SUPPLIES ARE LIMITED AS
SUMMER DRIVING SEASON KICKS
OFF.
WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO GET RECORD
HIGH GAS PRICES BACK TO
PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS?
JOINING IS S&P GLOBAL VICE
CHAIRMAN IS AUTHOR OF THE NEW
MAP, ENERGY, CLIMATE AND THE
CLASH OF NATIONS, DANIEL
JURGEN.
DATA TRACK REPORTED GAS
CONSUMPTION ACTUALLY SLOWED A
LITTLE BIT OVER THE PAST 7
WEEKS.
ARE HIGH PRICES STARTING TO
CHANGE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR?
IF NOT, HOW HIGH DO THEY HAVE
TO GO BEFORE CONSUMPTION FALLS
ENOUGH TO PUSH PRICES DOWN
AGAIN?
>> THE UNITED STATES IS PART OF
A GLOBAL MARKET.
WHEN CONSUMPTION GOES DOWN
CHINESE CONSUMPTION IS GOING UP
SO I THINK THIS SUMMER YOU
SHOULD EXPECT GASOLINE PRICES
TO BE 10% TO 20% HIGHER THAN
THEY ARE BUT AS THE PRICES GO
UP PEOPLE DRIVE LESS OR FIND
ALTERNATIVES.
THE RESPONSE.
PEOPLE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR
INEXPENSIVE SUMMER ON THE ROAD.
JACK: SPEAKING OF CHINA, A LOT
OF NEWS RECENTLY, THE YEAR BUT
HE DID SAYING IT WILL STOP
ALMOST ALL RUSSIAN IMPORTS TWEE
8 MONTHS FROM NOW.
THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRESIDENT
BIDEN MIGHT GO TO SAUDI ARABIA,
WE HAD AN OPEC DEAL THAT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BREAK DOWN
THE GLOBAL SITUATION AND WHAT
IT MEANS.
>> ALL THE FACTORS YOU TALK
ABOUT ARE AFFECTING, SHAPING,
DRIVING UP OIL PRICES.
THE BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL IMPARTS
INTO THE YOU BUT HE DID
COMBINED WITH DECLINING RUSSIAN
PRODUCTION IN CHINESE DEMAND
COMING UP, THE OPEC PLUS HAS
SAID THEY WOULD INCREASE
PRODUCTION.
IT IS NOT VERY MUCH AND THE
THING THAT IS OVERLOOKED IS A
THIN AMOUNT OF EXTRA CAPACITY
IN SAUDI ARABIA AND UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES TO CALL UPON.
AND IT IS NOT LIKELY THERE WILL
BE IN URANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL, ALL
OF THESE THINGS ADD TO UPWARD
PRESSURE.
JACK: WHAT ABOUT US OIL
COMPANIES?
IS IT JUST CAPITAL DISCIPLINE
KEEPING THEM FROM PUMPING MORE
OIL?
REGULATION?
SOMETHING ELSE?
>> BOTH OF THOSE THINGS,
CERTAINLY INVESTORS MADE A NEW
SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH INVESTORS
WHICH IS RETURN MONEY, YOU ARE
NOT SEEING THAT.
MAY MAYBE IT IS RATIONAL
EXUBERANCE OF PEOPLE STEPPING
IT UP.
THAT’S PART OF IT.
THE OTHER IS THE SAME SUPPLY
CHAIN PROBLEMS YOU’VE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT THAT AFFECT OTHER
PARTS OF THE ECONOMY.
I WANTING TWO OF THEM.
WHAT HIS PIPES AND THE OTHER
PEOPLE, TRUCK DRIVERS.
THESE ARE IN SHORT SUPPLY.
THAT’S A HINDRANCE AS WELL.
BEN: MY STATE OF NEW YORK CUT
THE TAX GAS AT THE END OF THE
RENT SHOULD THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT DO SOMETHING
SIMILAR?
>> THE GAS TAX PAYS FOR --
DON’T KNOW ABOUT NEW YORK BUT
THE FEDERAL GAS TAX GOES TO
ROADS.
YOU ARE TAKING AWAY MONEY THAT
WOULD GO TO ROADS.
WHAT IS IMPORTANT ABOUT THIS,
IT WILL REDUCE PRICES A LITTLE
BIT BUT IT IS TIED TO THE FACT
NOVEMBER IS ELECTION TIME.
CARLETON: WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO
GET GASOLINE PRICES TO THE
PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS AND HAVE A
USED TO GET ENOUGH ELECTRIC
CARS ON THE ROAD TO LOWER GAS
PRICES?
>> LOWER IN THE UNITED STATES
THAN ELSEWHERE.
I AM SEEING MORE ELECTRIC CARS
ON THE ROAD WHERE I LIVE BUT IT
IS 5% OF NEW CAR SALES IN THE
US, 20% IN CHINA AND EUROPE, BIG DIFFERENCE THERE.
BIG DIFFERENCE THERE.
BY 2027, ABOUT 15% OF GASOLINE
DEMAND WOULD BE REDUCED BY THE
GROWTH OF ELECTRIC CARS.
IT’S NOT SOMETHING THAT WILL
HAVE A BIG EFFECT THIS SUMMER
AND EVEN NEXT SUMMER BUT OVER