(pensive music)
- [Narrator] This is the Taiwan Strait.
In recent years, China has sent military aircraft
across the Strait and towards the island's southwest
on a near daily basis,
repeatedly testing Taiwan's ability to respond
to an invasion along its west coast.
But this year, China began doing something new.
In April and May,
Chinese aerial drones went further than ever before,
circling the entire island,
and fighter jets were detected on the island's east coast.
Military experts say Taiwan has always relied
on its mountainous terrain as a natural shield in the event
of an attack, looking to its east as a safe place to refuel
and re-arm its fighter jets if the west coast fell.
So China's growing range has led
to competing ideas amongst the island's current
and former military leaders about how Taiwan should respond.
- Terrain cannot protect ourself anymore compared
to decades ago.
- [Narrator] So how serious are these threats
to Taiwan's east coast
and does the island need to change its strategy?
(weapon booming)
A key part of Taiwan's current strategy can be found here.
This satellite imagery shows an air force base
on the island's east that's over 30 years old.
Bunkers built deep into the mountains store fighter jets
and anti-ship missiles like these
that could launch in response
to an attack on the main infrastructure in Taiwan's west.
By sheltering these weapons in the mountains,
Taipei plans to be able to prevent China
from gaining early control of the skies.
Experts say this is crucial
because the People's Liberation Army
of China dwarfs Taiwan's military,
limiting the island's capacity to defend
against a full-scale invasion from China on its own.
Instead, its main strategy has been to survive
in the east until allies,
including the US can arrive to assist the island.
But some experts say China's recent incursions
to the island's east and its growing military prowess
are making Taiwan's current strategy outdated.
- You can see the developments
in the modernization of the PLA.
They have a lot of the measure
and the capability attack from the eastern side.
So eastern side is not as safe
as we thought the decades ago.
- Retired Admiral Lee Hsi-Min served for more
than 40 years in Taiwan's armed forces,
retiring in 2019 as the chief of general staff.
Since leaving Taiwan's military, he's advocated
for the island to focus on smaller,
widely distributed defenses rather than attempting
to match China's offensive capabilities.
- We have to change the overall thinking
about how to build up our capability.
If China really wants to invade Taiwan,
I believed he should be very confident
for their A2/AD capability.
(pensive music)
- [Narrator] A2/AD or anti-access/area denial
is the ability to control access
to a military operations zone,
usually using long-range missiles
to threaten any enemy forces that try to enter an area.
A version of this was seen last year
with Chinese military exercises
that simulated a blockade of Taiwan.
Live fire drills were carried out in six zones,
blocking maritime traffic in those areas
and ballistic missiles were fired
into waters off the island's east coast.
Admiral Lee says China would only attempt an invasion
of the island if they were confident
that their A2/AD capabilities
would blockade Taiwan's east robustly enough
to dissuade Taiwan's allies from coming its assistance.
- No one will give you the guarantee
that they will be here to aid
if there's war across the straits.
- [Narrator] So instead of investing
in large conventional weapons,
like tanks and war ships, Lee says Taiwan should focus
on mobile and civilian capabilities,
such as portable anti-ship and anti-air missiles, drones
and radar systems
that could make an invasion too challenging
for China to even attempt.
- I believe that the asymmetrical warfare is the key
for the weaker side or for the smaller one.
In the early stage of the Ukraine war,
Russia used a lot of the tanks
or armored vehicle trying to direct the attack Kyiv
but it failed because Ukraine has a lot
of the small symmetrical arms,
like the Stinger or Javelin or and NLAW.
- [Narrator] And while Taiwan is building its supply
of smaller arms,
experts say it will still need to rely on the assistance
of its allies who are increasingly signaling
their willingness to defend the island.
A new US access to joint military bases
in the Philippines could play a key role
in Taiwan's east coast strategy.
These new bases are located on the other side
of the Bashi channel, a key access point for the navies
of both China and the US,
and an important maritime traffic route.
Some US systems, including HIMARS
could reach the south of Taiwan if placed on the other side
of the channel, allowing them to strike back
against the Chinese invasion attempt remotely.
And while China's movements in the east
have made some experts concerned
about the island's current strategy,
others say Taiwan already has the capabilities it needs
to stop China from rounding the island
in the event of an invasion.
(soldiers shouting) (weapons booming)
- In peace time, you can let the PLA warplanes
or warship to go around Taiwan.
However, in wartime, it's another situation.
We have the right to defend ourself.
- [Narrator] Dr. Su Tzu-Yun is the director
at Taiwan's Institute
for National Defense and Security Research,
a think tank funded by the island's military.
He says watching the war in Ukraine
has made it clear that Taiwan has some advantages
in the event of an invasion attempt.
- In the Ukraine, it's a so-called ground battlefield.
However, in Taiwan's case, it's a maritime battle.
So Taiwan can use limited resources
to create a so-called denial zone to blockade PLA's navy
or their air force to enter east side of Taiwan.
- [Narrator] So to do this, Taiwan is also investing
in larger defensive systems like the Patriot, and Phalanx,
a cannon mounted on military vessels used
to stop incoming threats.
Taiwan's Defense Ministry said in earlier remarks
that it won't entirely rely on its east coast
to be a safe haven in the event of a conflict,
saying there will be no clear distinction
between the front lines and the rear during wartime.
While China continues to signal its capabilities
to take over Taiwan by force if necessary,
the island is increasingly using its own war games
and exercises to show Beijing
and the world that it's able to defend itself.
- I hope our defense can tell the China side,
can tell PLA, "Don't invade us.
If you invade, you will suffer lots of the casualty
and you will not able to occupy Taiwan physically."
So that they will think twice.
- [Narrator] But even as they debate how best
to repel an assault, the Taiwanese military circle agree
that the best case scenario is to avoid any conflict
in the Strait.
(pensive music) (Weapons shooting)