IDIOTS LIKE JOE SCARBOROUGH WOULD GO ON THE AIR
AND TALK BADLY ABOUT HIM.
NATE SILVER HAD NUMBERS.
UNFORTUNATELY IN THIS ELECTION CYCLE, HE HAS LOST TRACK OF THE
NUMBERS AND CAN'T SEE PAST HIS
OWN BIAS.
I AM PULLING FOR NATE.
I WANT A NUMBERS GUY, I'M NOT
INTERESTED IN YOUR POLITICAL OPINION IN THIS CONTEXT.
I WANT
YOU TO ANALYZE THE NUMBERS IN THE MOST OBJECTIVE WAY THAT YOU
CAN.
HE JUST CAME OUT AND SAID HILLARY CLINTON NOW HAS
AN 80% CHANCE OF WINNING THE ELECTION.
WHY WOULD I BE UPSET
ABOUT THAT?
BERNIE SANDERS FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES IS NOT
GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE, THAT
FIGHT IS OVER.
IT'S TRUMP VERSUS CLINTON, BUT IN THAT FIGHT I
CLEARLY WOULD PREFER CLINTON TO TRUMP.
I CAN'T STAND TRUMP.
BUT
I DON'T BELIEVE IT.
AND HERE'S
WHY.
I REMEMBER NATE TELLING ME JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO THAT THE
POLLS WHERE HILLARY CLINTON WAS LOSING TO DONALD TRUMP.
WHO
LOOKS AT POLLING THIS EARLY?
NAY, WE ARE STILL PRETTY EARLY AND NOW WE ARE AT 80%? YOU ARE
AT 0% A WHILE AGO, NOW YOU ARE
AT 80%? IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST A MONTH AND A HALF.
THINGS CHANGE,
I UNDERSTAND THAT.
BUT BACK THEN HE WROTE ABOUT THE POLLS SHOWING
DONALD TRUMP LEADING HILLARY
CLINTON.
GOING ON A RANT ABOUT GENERAL ELECTION POLLS IN MAY IS
UNACCEPTABLE FOR FUCK SAKE.
[VIDEO BUFFERING] ALRIGHT GUYS,
WE HAD A TRI-CASTER ISSUE.
YOU NEVER THOUGHT YOU WOULD HEAR THE
WORD TRI-CASTER SO MUCH IN YOUR
LIFE.
APPARENTLY WE DON'T KNOW WHAT A TRI-CASTER IS.
THIS IS
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU DON'T HAVE A LOT OF MONEY.
YOU HAVE A LOT
OF AUDIENCE, BUT NOT A LOT OF
MONEY.
A LOT OF FOLKS HAVE NOT FIGURED OUT THAT THE AUDIENCE IS
ALL HERE.
WE COULD GET MORE BACKUPS AND HAVE A BETTER SYSTEM
IF WE HAD MORE RESOURCES, TYTNETWORK.COM/JOIN.
YOU GUYS
POWER THE SHOW, SO IT IS YOUR
FAULT.
I'M KIDDING.
IMAGINE WHERE WE WOULD BE WITHOUT YOU?
THE ANSWER IS LITERALLY NOWHERE.
IF YOU WANT TO HELP OUT, BLESS
YOUR HEARTS.
LET ME PICK UP THE STORY WHERE WE LEFT OFF WITH A
NATE SILVER.
IN MAY THE POLLS MEANT NOTHING, BUT IN JUNE THE
POLLS MEAN EVERYTHING.
BACK THEN HE SENDS OUT THESE TWEETS.
ONE
MONTH THE POLLS ARE NOISY, AND THE NEXT MONTH THEY ARE
COMPLETELY QUIET.
WHEN HIS CANDIDATE, HILLARY CLINTON ñ WHO
ARE YOU KIDDING?
YOU BACK
HILLARY CLINTON SO HARD, I KNOW YOU DON'T ñ HERE ARE THE
NUMBERS.
IN MAJOR CANDIDATE,
HILLARY CLINTON IS LOSING.
IN THE NEXT MONTH, IN JUNE, OH,
THIS ELECTION IS 80% OVER.
EVERYBODY GO HOME.
CONVENIENTLY
THEY ALL THINK ALIKE.
I AM TRYING TO HELP YOU
TO BREAK OUT
OF THAT GROUP THING.
YOU ARE IN
NEW YORKER, YOU ARE IN THAT
BUBBLE.
THAT'S WHAT THEY DID IN
THE PRIMARIES, AND THAT IS WHAT
THEY ARE DOING IN THE GENERAL ELECTION.
REMEMBER, I AM AGAINST
TRUMP I WANT HIM TO LOSE.
I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT, BUT I WANT YOU TO
BE FAIR AND HONEST.
LULLING EVERYONE INTO A FALSE SENSE OF
COMPLACENCY DOES NOT HELP.
THE POLLS DO MATTER, THEY SHOW YOU A
SNAPSHOT IN TIME.
THE FACT THAT TRUMP PULLED A LITTLE AHEAD OF
HILLARY CLINTON.
THAT BUFFOON SHOULD BE 20 POINTS AHEAD OF
CLINTON.
AMONG MEN SHE IS GETTING KILLED. 56 TO 25, DONALD
TRUMP'S WEDDING.
YOU HAVE TO BE BALANCED IN BOTH CASES.
THE
POLLS DON'T MEAN EVERYTHING, AND
THEY DON'T MEAN NOTHING.
IF TRUMP'S LEAD IN MAY DIDN'T MEAN
NOTHING, IT MEANT SOMETHING.
AND RIGHT NOW HILLARY CLINTON FLEET
DOESN'T MEAN EVERYTHING, A MEANS
SOMETHING.
YOU GOT TO BE HONEST ABOUT IT.
ONE LESS THING FROM
SILVER.
HE GAVE TRUMP A 2% CHANCE OF GETTING THE
NOMINATION.
THAT IS WHAT WE IN THE BUSINESS CALL OOPS.
PART
OF
NATE'S BIAS HERE IS NOT LIBERAL OR CONSERVATIVE.
IF ANYTHING IT
IS THAT GROUP THING BIAS.
PART OF IT IS THAT HE WROTE A BOOK
ABOUT HOW THE PARTIES MATTER.
HE WAS RIGHT UP UNTIL THIS
REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT WHERE
PEOPLE ARE SICK OF IT.
THEY DON'T WANT TO LISTEN TO THE
ESTABLISHMENT.
PARTIES PICK JEB BUSH AND MARK RUBIO, WHERE ARE
THEY?
YOU MIGHT WANT TO GO VISIT THEM ON THE GOLF COURSE BECAUSE
THEY ARE IN GOD DAMN RETIREMENT.
SO HE GAVE TRUMP A 2% CHANCE FOR
THE NOMINATION, WHICH I SUSPECT
IS WRONG.
HE SAYS IN THE PRIMARY WAS HARD TO PREDICT BECAUSE HE
WAS GOING UP AND DOWN.
ACTUALLY, HE WAS CONSISTENTLY NUMBER ONE.
THAT'S WHY BACK IN JUNE 2015 I SAID HE WAS DEFINITELY GOING TO
BE IN THE TOP THREE.
THEN BY OCTOBER, MONTHS BEFORE ANY OF
THE VOTING I BET THAT HE WOULD
WIN THE NOMINATION.
WHAT DID I BASE THAT ON?
MY GUT?
NO.
FUNNY
ENOUGH I BASED IT ON POLLS.
I ALSO BASED ON HOW HE WAS
CAMPAIGNING, AND THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY.
ALSO HOW THE RIGHT-WING
VOTERS WERE RECEIVING HIM.
NO, 2% CHANCE.
PART OF THAT ñ IT'S
ABOUT HOW YOU SAID THOSE POLLS
WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
WHAT THE HELL IS CONSISTENT ABOUT
THOSE NUMBERS?
I HOPE THAT I HELPED IN AN EFFORT TO BE AS
OBJECTIVE AS WE CAN.
I KNOW THEY WILL NEVER ACCEPT THAT.
THEY
WILL SAY YOU ARE YOU A PROGRESSIVE, SO YOU SUPPORT
CERTAIN CANDIDATES.
NO, THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.
WHAT
DO YOU BELIEVE POLITICALLY, AND I AM CLEAR ABOUT THAT, AND WHAT
DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO
ACTUALLY HAPPEN?
THAT ANALYSIS IS ONE THAT WE HOPE WE DO
HONESTLY AND TRUTHFULLY.
HOPEFULLY WE ARRIVE AT THE
TRUTH, WE WOULD LIKE EVERYBODY
TO DO THE SAME INSTEAD OF JUST GOING WITH THEIR BIAS.
I AM
ESPECIALLY MAD BECAUSE I EXPECT BETTER FROM NATE.
HE IS SUPPOSED
TO BE THE GUY THAT WE CAN TURN TO FOR FACTS.
LET'S GET BACK TO
THAT.