Kazakhstan is a classic ex-Soviet dictatorship.
It’s a country best known for being the homeland of Borat.
Not only that: earlier this year, 2022, Vladimir Putin sent troops to help maintain the regime
after protests put it in check.
At first glance, it would appear to be a country absolutely loyal to the Kremlin, wouldn't
it?
However, when the invasion of Ukraine was discussed at the UN, there was a surprise.
Only four countries other than Russia voted against condemning the invasion of Ukraine.
Among those loyal to Putin are Lukashenko's Belarus, Kim Jong-un's North Korea, Bashar
al-Assad's Syria and Eritrea.
In short, the best of each house.
But not a trace of Tokayev's Kazakhstan, which chose to abstain.
And I know what many of you are thinking... let's see [Name of Host], who cares about
the UN….
Yes, you have a point, but in June in St. Petersburg, right under Putin's nose, President
Tokayev said this: We recognize neither Taiwan, nor Kosovo, nor
South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
In all likelihood, this principle will be applied to quasi-State entities, which, in
our opinion, are Luhansk and DonetskAs you can imagine, this is a full-fledged stab in
the back for Russia.
But it’s a position that is also complicated for Kazakhstan.
Because no matter how much gas and oil they have, no matter how much Kazakhstan is the
Dubai of the steppe, its economy is completely integrated with Russia’s.
And in fact, all the Kazakh oil that reaches the European Union flows through Russian territory.
Six percent of the oil imported by the EU-27 comes from Kazakhstan.
So the question is, why is Kazakhstan betraying Russia, and how could all this affect Europe?
Today on VisualPolitik we are going to answer these questions but first, let's look at a
bit of history.
THE SOVIET SNOWFALL)
If there is one country that has suffered the consequences of being in the Soviet Union,
it is Kazakhstan.
Here on VisualPolitik, we have always said that the USSR was a full-fledged colonial
empire.
And the poor Kazakhs suffered more than a little.
Let me give you an example: the atomic bomb.
We all know that the atomic bomb is barbaric.
But...
How do you feel about testing nuclear weapons on your own citizens?
Sounds wild, doesn't it?
Well, this is what happened to the poor Kazakhs living in the inhabited city of KURCHATOV,
where the main soviet nuclear test site of SEMIPALATINSK was located.
It even affected the people of Semey, a city 150 kilometers away from there.
The choice of this area by Beria, Stalin's most ruthless lieutenant, had a premeditated
objective: to study the effects of radiation on the human body.
For this reason, the Soviets conducted nuclear bomb tests near this inhabited population.
In fact, the most important research in this field has been carried out in Kazakhstan.
It is one of the few places in the world where there are real cases of humans who have suffered
this type of radiation.
It goes without saying that not all Soviet influence was so bad.
For example, Kazakhstan is where the famous Baikonur Cosmodrome is located.
In fact, the Kremlin still leases this cosmodrome from the Nur-Sultan government.
N1(Kazakhstan: Russia to keep using Baikonur until at least 2050.
Eurasianet)
The thing that you may all be wondering now: let's see [Name of Host], apart from nuclear
bombs and space rockets, what else did the Soviets do for the Kazakhs?
Well, right from the start the USSR proceeded to convert the Kazakhs, a nomadic people,
into peasants for the new collectivized farms.
The result was lethal.
Famines in the 1930s claimed the lives of 1.5 million Kazakhs, approximately a quarter
of the population.
But the Kremlin knew how to repopulate the country.
Purges were the order of the day in the Soviet Union.
Kazakhstan was, along with Siberia, one of the main destinations for the exile of citizens
bothersome to the Soviet power.
In addition, the forced displacement of Russians also contributed to the Russification of Kazakhstan,
where ethnic Russians were the majority for more than half a century, until the years
of Mikhail Gorbachev.
Once again, the USSR's logic was the same as that of any colonial empire.
For Moscow, Kazakhstan was a gigantic country in which to develop its agricultural plans
to turn its pastures into a grain-producing region for the Soviet Union.
And it was to this area that they relocated a lot of Russian population in order to monopolize
the political, economic and social elites of the Kazakh republic.
In fact, even today Russian is still the co-official language of the State, along with Kazakh itself.
And that explains why Kazakhs are not too fond of their former colonizers.
In fact, we are already beginning to see signs of de-Russification.
N2(Kazakhs to return to the Latin alphabet, abandoning Cyrillic by 2023.
Asia News)
But wait a minute, because this is just the tip of the resentment iceberg that everything
Russian generates among Kazakhs.
And many of you may be thinking, well, it's no big deal if they're still like this and
it's been more than 30 years since Kazakhstan's independence.
But there are two details we should not lose sight of.
Firstly, since 1990, power has been held by Nursultan Nazarbayev, that is, since a year
before Kazakhstan became independent from the Soviet Union.
So the main stakeholder for little change was the president himself.
The main transformation under Nazarbayev came with the opening to foreign investment to
exploit Kazakhstan's enormous natural resources, such as its oil and gas fields.
The second detail to keep in mind is that the Kazakh economy was quite integrated with
the Russian one, so in a way they were doomed to get along.
C1(When Russia sneezes, we catch a cold.
Kazakh proverb)
Against this background, the Kazakhs are some days pro-Russian and some days not.
Of course, Russia has always done everything possible to keep them under its orbit.
Take, for example, the Eurasian Economic Union, an organization pushed by Putin to sustain
Russian influence over Central Asia.
When it was launched in 2015, Kazakhstan had good reason to be wary: a quarter of its population
is ethnic Russian and Putin had used a similar pretext to annex Crimea.
So Kazakhstan agreed to join the Eurasian Economic Union by prioritizing its economic
side and blocking Russian suggestions to endow the organization with political and defense
competencies.
In this way the Kazakhs have sought to have their own voice in the world and not to depend
on Russia in any situation.
But of course, then came the revolts of January 2022 and that is when Tokayev, president of
Kazakhstan since 2019, found himself between a rock and a hard place.
N3(Kazakh president seeks help from Russia-led security bloc.
Reuters)
Of course, this intervention was a great opportunity for Russia to meddle again in Kazakhstan's
affairs.
It is clear that President Tokayev looked both ways.
And, the truth is that neither the United States nor the European Union is going to
help prop up a dictatorship.
So he had no choice but to use Putin's wild card.
At what price?
At the price of absolute loyalty?
Check it out.
T2(YOU TOO, YOU BRUTE, MY SON!)
After the intervention of Russian troops to entrench Tokayev in power, it seemed that
relations between Kazakhstan and Russia were closer than ever.
Then comes the invasion of Ukraine and Putin, who has been working for years in Central
Asia to build a regional bloc led by Russia, supposedly expects all these countries to
support him.
However, the -stan republics have kept a studied silence on the Ukrainian war.
And not only that.
In addition, Putin has found that Tokayev has talked back to him.
Look how the Russian press is putting it.
N4(This is a backstab!
The network is outraged by the appointment of a Russophobe as the Minister of Information
in Kazakhstan.
Newiz)
The course charted by Tokayev after the intervention of Russian troops shows that the Kazakh president
completely distrusts Putin.
Or rather, that he does not want in any way to be seen as a puppet of Moscow.
And that is why, as soon as he felt safe in power again, Tokayev has been making a lot
of gestures against Russian influence and is also putting an end to everything that
smells of former president Nazarbayev.
Why?
Well, to consolidate, on the one hand, his independent image and because, on the other
hand, it was the former president's entourage that had the most ties with the Kremlin.
Or at least that is the image that Tokayev now wants to give and that is why as soon
as he could, he made the former president the scapegoat.
And so, among other things, he withdrew the honors he still held, such as the chairmanship
of the National Security Committee.
And he also dismissed his daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva, who had become president of the
Senate and now is no longer even a member of parliament.
But Tokayev has not stopped there:
N5 (Kazakhstan: Key Nazarbayev cronies undergo apparent purge
The former president's nephew has been fired as deputy head of the powerful security services.
Euroasianet)
Many of you may be asking yourselves: why all this?
Tokayev reportedly believes that the serious disturbances of last January are due to the
interest of some sectors close to former President Nazarbayev for the Kazakh government to open
the country's door to the Kremlin.
And yes, Tokayev did give Putin the keys to Kazakhstan.
But as soon as the Russian troops left, the first thing he did was to change the lock.
Tokayev is not making a difference with the Kremlin because he is a lover of democracy,
but due to a question of sovereignty.
With the example of Ukraine, Tokayev is seeing what Russia is capable of doing with a former
Soviet republic.
An invasion would directly threaten the Kazakh people, but it would also threaten his power.
In Belarus, Tokayev is seeing that supporting Russia would give the Kremlin carte blanche
to abuse Kazakh sovereignty.
As it stands right now, if Putin plays the balalaika, Lukashenko dances like a Cossack.
And no self-respecting leader wants to be anyone's puppet.
By not supporting Russia, the Kazakh leader is also aware that he is scoring points with
the West.
And Western backing could come in very handy for Tokayev in order to continue to defy the
old Kazakh elites still controlled by Nazarbayev.
The problem for Kazakhstan is, of course, that Putin does not intend to sit idly by
while they challenge him.
N6(Russia shuts down Novorossiysk oil terminal after Kazakhstan offers to send more oil to
the EU.
APA)
The Russian port of Novorossiysk is the outlet used by Kazakhstan to export 80% of its oil.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which manages this 1,500-kilometer, that’s 932-mile, pipeline
from the Kazakh oilfields to the Black Sea, managed to get the Russian terminal back into
operation in July.
Even so, every now and then this pipeline is being disrupted by Russia.
And this is affecting the Kazakh economy.
N7(Kazakhstan sees economy slowed down by Russia's war
Oil output forecasts have been trimmed amid difficulties in using a key pipeline.
Euroasianet)
Kazakhstan halved its economic growth forecast for this year: from 4% to 2%.
But wait a minute, VisualPolitik viewers, because Europe may also be hurt if Russia
once again turns off the taps to Kazakh oil.
That's why the European Union and Kazakhstan are working on alternatives to bypass Russia.
How to do it, we'll look at that right now!
T3(GOODBYE, PUTIN!)
There is only one news topic that has been repeated in Europe this summer as much as
the heat waves: Putin's continued threat to leave Europe without energy.
Winter is coming and the Kremlin is using gas and oil to make the European Union think
twice about its support for Zelenskiy.
And in the middle of all this is Kazakhstan.
Every time Russia prevents its oil from reaching the Black Sea on its way to export to Europe.
This is why talks at the highest level between Kazakhstan and the European Union began in
July.
Tokayev is clear about what needs to be done.
N8(Kazakh President Calls For New Oil Export Routes After Russia Suspends Key Pipeline)
Tokayev aspires to build a pipeline under the Caspian Sea connecting the two shores.
It is not the only country in the area interested in building a pipeline to export its energy
resources to the European market.
Turkmenistan also wants to do business with its gas.
The future of both projects needs to go through Azerbaijan on the other side of the Caspian
Sea, but I don't want to get into the details on this matter because it will be
the subject of a future video.
The problem for Kazakhstan is that a trans-Caspian pipeline is not something that can be built
overnight.
And Tokayev wants solutions now.
For the time being the Kazakhs have found a formula that may work for them for a while.
N9(Exclusive: Kazakhstan to start oil sales via Azeri pipeline to bypass Russia.
Reuters)
As of this September, Kazakhstan has begun using a fleet of small tankers to carry its
dinosaur juice across the Caspian Sea to Baku.
There it will use the BTC pipeline, which connects Baku, Tbilisi, capital of Georgia,
and Ceyhan, a Turkish city on the Mediterranean coast.
The idea is to complement this route in 2023 by taking advantage of another pipeline from
Azerbaijan to Supsa, Georgia's port on the Black Sea.
But is this a definitive solution?
Well, no, not at all.
It is woefully insufficient: it is estimated that by using these routes, Kazakhstan could
deliver some 100,000 barrels of oil per day, barely 8%, compared to what it sends through
Russia.
This figure could be improved if you add another option being considered in Kazakhstan, which
is to send the oil by rail to Batumi, another Georgian port on the Black Sea.
But this route would also cross Russian territory.
So all in all, we are talking about small patches to ensure that Kazakh oil continues
to reach Europe, albeit in dribs and drabs.
However, all this could be the beginning of something more important: a sign that Kazakhstan
wants to stop depending on Russia.
And that means a very important change in Central Asia.
In the meantime, Tokayev is wasting no time.
N10(Kazakhstan leader seeks snap elections and cut to presidential term.
FT)
Surely the Kazakh elections will continue to be the same old theater.
They were not supposed to be held until 2024 but Tokayev wants to bring them forward to
this autumn.
Before that he expects the Kazakh parliament to approve a very relevant change.
Limiting presidential mandates to a single 7-year term.
Tokayev is 69 years old and cannot hope to mark an era in Kazakhstan.
But in the next 7 years he has the opportunity to change Kazakhstan more than during Nazarbayev's
three decades.
And this may have important consequences for Europe, so VisualPolitik will be keeping an
eye on the situation, but in the meantime the question is over to you: Will Kazakhstan
manage to reduce its dependence on Russia, or will we see a direct confrontation between
Putin and Tokayev?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
In the meantime, don't forget that we release new videos every week so subscribe to this
channel so you won't miss any of our updates.
If you liked this video, LIKE it and see you in the next one.
All the best and see you soon.