.
. WELL,
. WELL, BACK SIX FORTY SIX RIGHT NOW WE ARE WAITING TO SEE WHAT
WILL BE THE IMPACT AFTER
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE TRAVEL FOR
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND
MILLIONS MORE HAD GATHERINGS AT
THEIR HOMES.
WHAT COULD IT MEAN FOR OUR
NUMBERS HERE IN COLORADO?
OUR NINE HEALTH EXPERT DR. PAUL
CROWLEY JOINS US NOW TO TALK
ABOUT WHAT WE SHOULD BE DOING
IN DAMAGE CONTROL BECAUSE
OF THE TRAVEL.
SO GOOD MORNING, DR. KOHLI.
WHEN WOULD WE EXPECT
THE NUMBERS TO START RISE
BECAUSE OF THANKSGIVING AND
WHAT CAN WE DO TO KEEP THEM
DOWN IF POSSIBLE SO CARRY WITH
TRAVEL AND EXPOSURE OCCURRING
LAST WEEKEND?
WE CAN START TO SEE THE NUMBERS
GOING UP AS EARLY AS THE END
OF THIS WEEK BUT MORE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
WEEKS IN TERMS OF CASES.
SO IN TERMS OF HOSPITALIZED
PATIENTS WE'RE LOOKING AT
AROUND CRHISTMAS TIME.
SO ABOUT THREE TO FOUR WEEKS
WHEN WE START TO SEE THAT
INCREASE HOSPITALIZATIONS ABOUT
FIVE WEEKS OR SO WHEN WE SEE
THE ICU NUMBERS INCREASING
RIGHT AROUND NEW YEAR'S TIME
AND UNFORTUNATELY ABOUT SIX
WEEKS WHEN WE REALLY START TO
SEE THOSE DEATHS INCREASING.
SO WE REALLY ARE IN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS BEING
RELATIVELY ROUGH.
BUT GARY, YOU KNOW, THE DAMAGE
HAS NOT ALL BEEN DONE YET.
WE STILL POTENTIALLY COULD BE
MITIGATING SOME OF THE EFFECTS
OF TRAVEL, FOR INSTANCE, IF YOU
HAD EXPOSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.
YOU KNOW, YOU COULD STILL BE
SPREADING INFECTION AND NOT
REALIZING IT THIS WEEK.
SO ONE THING THAT WE WOULD
STRONGLY ENCOURAGE EVERYBODY
WHO TRAVELED OR GATHERED TO DO
IS TO TRY TO STAY HOME FOR 14
DAYS AND SELF QUARANTINE IF
THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE THEN GO AND
GET TESTED THIS WEEKEND AROUND
DAY SEVEN SO THAT YOU CAN AT
LEAST HAVE A SENSE OF WHETHER
OR NOT YOU MAY HAVE EXPOSED
OVER THE WEEKEND BECAUSE THAT
WILL REALLY MITIGATE THE SPREAD
FROM HERE ON OUTWARDS.
YEAH, I'VE HEARD SO MANY PEOPLE
WHO HAVE TRAVELED SAY WELL I'M
GOING TO GET TESTED.
DO WE DO WE HAVE ENOUGH TESTING
TO ACCOMMODATE ALL OF THAT?
AND THEN HERE'S THE REAL
CHALLENGE BECAUSE ON ONE HAND
I'M TELLING YOU TO GET TESTED
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, IN
MY OPINION WE ABSOLUTELY DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TESTING.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT OUR
POSITIVITY RATE YESTERDAY WAS
TWELVE POINT FOUR PERCENT AND
WE REALLY NEED THAT TO BE
AROUND THREE PERCENT OR SO.
SO THAT SUGGESTS THAT WE NEED
ABOUT FOUR TIMES AS MUCH
TESTING AS WE'RE DOING RIGHT
NOW TO BRING THAT DOWN.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBER
TESTS WE DID YESTERDAY, IT WAS
ABOUT THIRTY FIVE POINT FIVE
THOUSAND TESTS THAT WE DID
YESTERDAY AND THAT'S ABOUT
POINT SIX FIVE PERCENT
OF COLORADO'S POPULATION.
NOW THE WHL SAYS TO BE A GOOD
PLACE WE NEED TO BE TESTING TWO
PERCENT OF THE POPULATION EVERY
DAY.
SO THAT SUGGESTS WE NEED ABOUT
THREE TIMES AS MANY TESTS AS
WE'RE GETTING.
SO I DON'T THINK WE HAVE TESTS.
BUT I ALSO DON'T THINK WE
SHOULD USE THAT AS AN EXCUSE TO
NOT GET TESTED BECAUSE AT
THE END OF THE DAY IT'S
THE TESTING THAT'S REALLY GOING
TO HELP US BREAK THAT CHAIN
OF TRANSMISSION.
THAT'S AN ISSUE ALL ACROSS
THE COUNTRY, A LACK OF TESTING.
SO SO MANY PEOPLE ARE GETTING
INFECTED.
THE INFECTION RATES ARE SO HIGH
IN COMMUNITIES RIGHT NOW.
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH
THE ANTIBODY TESTS COMING BACK
POSITIVE?
SO THIS IS VERY INTERESTING.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA HERE,
IT TELLS YOU THAT WE'VE ABOUT
DOUBLED OUR RATE OF ANTIBODY
POSITIVITY SO YOU CAN SEE THAT
SOLID RED LINE REALLY SHOWING
THE ANTIBODY POSITIVITY RATE AT
ABOUT 19 PERCENT WHICH IS UP
FROM NINE PERCENT JUST ABOUT A
FEW WEEKS GIIIRRRRL.
AND THIS IS REALLY ONE IN FIVE
ANTIBODY TESTS COMING BACK
POSITIVE TO ME.
THIS TELLS ME A FEW THINGS.
THE FIRST IS THAT IT'S A GOOD
SIGN BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH
THE RATE OF INFECTION IS GOING
UP, IT SUGGESTS THAT PEOPLE
THAT ARE GETTING INFECTED ARE
MAKING ANTIBODIES WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY BE PROTECTIVE.
BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THOSE BARS
THERE, GARY, THE TESTING HAS
ACTUALLY GONE DOWN THE NUMBER
OF ANTIBODY ANTIBODY POSITIVITY
RATE IS GOING UP IS BECAUSE
THE NUMBER OF TESTS SHOWN IN
THE BARS IS GOING DOWN.
SO IN MY OPINION THIS IS
ANOTHER TESTING WE'RE NOT DOING
ENOUGH OF WHICH IS THE ANTIBODY
TESTING BECAUSE YOU REALLY GET
A SENSE OF HOW MUCH OF OUR
COMMUNITY HAS ANTIBODIES.
WE NEED TO DO MORE WIDESPREAD
TESTING.
AND REMEMBER THAT HERD IMMUNITY
THRESHOLD IS ABOUT 70 PERCENT
WHICH I DON'T THINK WE'LL
ACHIEVE WITH NATIONAL
INFECTION.
WE REALLY WILL NEED THAT
VACCINE TO