High in the Himalayas near the frontier with China, India’s leader has come to rally
the troops.
It’s mid 2020, and an outbreak of violence with Chinese forces in this remote, disputed
border zone of Ladakh has shaken the whole of India… and left 20 troops dead.
Narendra Modi is under pressure to put on a show of strength - and tell the Chinese
to back off.
The age of expansionism is over!
The thing is, China’s expansionist ambitions are not over at all. In fact, it wants to
take whole bites out of Indian territory. Tensions on the border are nothing new. In
1962 they erupted into the month-long Sino-Indian war. Now they’re very much back.
India-China border dispute is the biggest land dispute in the world right now. The amount
of territory that both countries believe belongs to them is more than anywhere else in the
world.
Sushant Singh served in the Indian army for two decades. He’s now a leading military
analyst at a Delhi think tank.
He explained what’s been happening at the “line of actual control” in Ladakh, the
de-facto border where the clashes happened.
The crisis first was visible to us in May 2020 when a large number of Chinese troops
had entered various areas in Ladakh. At this moment, nearly 100,000 troops combined
from both Indian and Chinese sides are believed to be deployed additionally, on the line of
actual control. And if I were to show you on the map where
these friction points were, from north to south. This red line depicts the line of actual
control in Ladakh. And this is an official CIA map from 1962. And this is the area of
Depsang where the Chinese have had troops come in and blocked Indian patrols. This is
the second flashpoint of Galwan, where 20 Indian soldiers died on June 15, 2020, along
with four Chinese soldiers after there was a clash without weapons. And then there are
two areas here where there's a crisis in Gogra and Hot Spring, where, again, the Chinese
troops have come in and blocked Indian patrols.
Far to the east, India has increased the number of troops it stations here in Arunachal Pradesh
state. Because here, Chinese ambitions go even further.
Arunachal Pradesh is at the eastern end of the Himalayas, bordering China, Myanmar and
the tiny state of Bhutan. This is referred to in the language of border disputes as the
“eastern sector. What's special here is that China doesn’t just dispute the boundaries.
It claims the entire state - what it calls southern Tibet.
Eastern sector is in certain senses the most significant because it has the town of Tawang.
Tawan was originally a Buddhist town, a part of Tibet. It has got a Tibetan monastery there.
They have one of the former Dalai Lamas born. So Tawang remains historically, culturally,
strategically, very significant for China, which is in India's control.
The idea of a border dispute sounds like a dry technicality - something to be worked
out by bureaucrats examining maps. But think about what we just heard there. The idea that
China sees this region as having historical, cultural, strategic significance. It sounds
like how Vladimir Putin framed his invasion of Ukraine. This is dangerous.
It definitely remains conceivable that China could undertake a military operation that
could occupy Arunachal Pradesh, particularly areas which it believes are sensitive to it
for reasons because of its occupation of Tibet and the way it has dealt with the Dalai Lama.
It could definitely do that.
So as India boosts its forces in Arunachal Pradesh, it’s facing a real possibility
of war with its superpower neighbor.
So in our consciousness, China is a threat. We have nearly a 4000 kilometer boundary with
them. They keep disrespecting the boundary agreements that we have with them and are
not willing to proceed on settling any outstanding issues on that front.
A war between India and China would be a war between two nuclear powers. Two of the biggest
countries in Asia, where the Indian army is nearly 1.3 million strong, whereas the Chinese
army is nearly 2 million strong. So we are talking about a very big section
of the world, a very important part of the world, very large armies, nuclear-armed countries,
fighting each other.
And crucially, China would have a significant advantage in any conflict.
It's a much bigger power. Chinese economy is six times India's size, Chinese defense
spending is four times India's size. China definitely has more diplomatic power, more
global power. It competes with the United States, whereas India does not. India may
want to compete with China, but India is a much smaller power than China.
The pressure from China is not just being felt on India’s borders - it's all across
the region.
Beijing has built a deep relationship with India’s other problematic neighbor, Pakistan.
It’s been pouring investment into infrastructure through its “Belt and Road” project, including
a massive port on the Arabian Sea. Part of a wider strategy that leaves India feeling
increasingly surrounded.
The Chinese also have had something called a string of pearls theory. So for many decades
they have been putting up bases, naval bases around India, to surround India. The Chinese
also have, as the whole world knows, engaged in something that is being called “debt-trap
diplomacy.” Recently, the Sri Lankan economy collapsed because China had extended large
amounts of money to Sri Lanka, perhaps through means where they influence the decision making
process there.
Western delegates at the Raisina Dialogue also expressed huge concern over China’s
ambitions not just in India’s backyard, but across the Indo-Pacific region. Including
a recent security deal that it signed with the Solomon Islands - a remote archipelago
in the southwestern Pacific.
Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott is one of many warning that China could be
planning a military base there.
The Solomon Islands are very strategically significant
So it's absolutely understandable that from China's purposes, they would want to secure
a significant foothold, ultimately, perhaps a major military base in the Solomon Islands.
Likewise, as far as Australia is concerned, this is really a red line that shouldn't be
crossed.”
Even faraway Germany is sounding the alarm.
Tobias Lindner is a minister of state in Germany’s foreign ministry.
We are concerned about that agreement between the Solomon Islands and China. And I can assure
you we will watch very carefully about what China is doing in its neighborhood and in
the region.
For the US, China’s growing reach across the Indo-Pacific is its top strategic challenge.
China wants to become the hegemon in the region. It wants to displace US power and influence
in the region and basically dominate the economics, the political power. It would like to assert
its authoritarian ideology throughout the region and basically be able to dictate the
terms that the region operates under.
That’s a view echoed by leading figures in Delhi.
I think their game plan, whether it is for containing India or their aggressive actions
in the Indo-Pacific, have a much larger significance for the whole world. They're taking over countries,
economies and their political decision-making powers.
As we’ve heard, the challenge of China is all-encompassing. So what is India doing about
it?
Independence Day in Delhi - soon after those border clashes in 2020. Narendra Modi gives
a rousing address about his response to China’s incursion.
Whoever challenged India's sovereignty has been given a fitting response by our soldiers
in a language they understand.
TikTok became an unlikely victim of the clashes. India banned the wildly popular Chinese-owned
app and dozens of others as part of its retaliatory measures.
Two years on, China’s foreign minister paid a surprise visit to Delhi in March 2022…
an apparent attempt to get relations back to normal. But his Indian counterpart said
that couldn’t happen without China stepping back from the border.
If you ask me, is our relationship normal today? My answer to you is no, it is not.
And it cannot be normal if the situation in the border areas is abnormal. And surely the
presence of a large number of troops there, in contravention of agreements, is an abnormality.
But military expert Sushant Singh says India seems hesitant to tackle the issue.
There's been no discussion in parliament, no questions have been entertained in the
parliament, there have been no official briefings and the domestic media coverage of the China
border crisis is absolutely minimal. There is nothing which is seen on the China border
crisis in India. So at one level, while we see this major crisis on the border, at another
level we see a desire to underplay the crisis, perhaps because there is a significant weakness
that India has vis a vis China. And it's a recognition of that weakness, recognizing
that weakness that India really does not want to push on.
Even after the guns have stopped firing, there is absolutely no willingness to talk to parliament.
There's been a couple of unilateral statements read on the floor of each house by the foreign
and defense ministers. But no debate, no responses to questions by MPs. It's been quite, quite
disgraceful, actually.
For Shashi Tharoor of the opposition Congress, India is sitting back while trade with China
booms – on a highly unequal basis.
Trade has gone up to almost $100 Billion a year, most of which is in China's favor. It's
about 80% Chinese exports to India. Now, in these circumstances, you could see that continuing
because it was in China's interest to continue it, but not when they're actually shooting
and killing your people. That, to my mind, is where the line had to be drawn.
Everyone has been prepared to give the government the benefit of the doubt because they keep
on saying, we're talking to the Chinese and the Chinese should push back, but the Chinese
haven't moved back. And under these circumstances, are we going to continue to just sit around
temporizing or are we going to examine broader options?
And while Delhi considers its next moves, Beijing's deepening relations with Moscow
only increase the pressure to shore up India's position.
China will dictate the terms of the Russia-China relationship moving forward. So India really
has very little to gain by trying to placate Russia. I think that's a miscalculation on
India's part. Because Russia, if things come to blows with the Chinese on the border, there's
very little that Russia will be able and willing to do for India.
It’s clear that India needs powerful friends to help it deal with China. And with Russia
looking so shaky, the West is the obvious option. And yet this relationship is complicated.
As we’re about to hear, there are significant question marks on both sides.
Coming up in part 3 India is a central pillar to the US Indo-Pacific
strategy.
we see the US supporting India, building defense, security ties, putting emphasis on the quad.
The quad is not a formal alliance, but it is potentially at least an extremely strong
partnership because it does bring together the main Indo-Pacific democracies India, the
United States, Japan and Australia.
You hear a lot about values underpinning all these projects… That as democracies India
and the West are a natural fit The question is: how close are they really?
Alliances in the West have had a mixed track record. The US has had many, many alliances.
Not all of them have fared very well.
‘Bulldozer’ is a term trending in India right now.
As a troubling wave of anti-Muslim violence hits the country. Authorities gave orders for bulldozers to demolish many
structures here.
India is coming to resemble Russia and China far more than it resembles Western democracies.