STAY AT HOME ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BUT THAT’S UP TO THE PRESIDENT.
THAT’S LISTENING TO THE DOCTORS,
AS YOU SAY.
LET’S TALK ABOUT THE FINANCIAL
SIDE ABOUT THIS THAT’S TAKING AN
INCREDIBLE HUMAN TOLL.
STAGGERING JOBLESS CLAIMS NUMBER
CROSSING AS WE REPORTED
YESTERDAY.
YESTERDAY. 6.65 MILLION PEOPLE CLAIMING
UNEMPLOYMENT JUST LAST WEEK.
THE WEEK BEFORE THAT, THE LABOR
DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCED 3.28
MILLION CLAIMS, BRINGING THE
MONTH OF MARCH TOTAL TO MORE
THAN 10 MILLION JOBLESS CLAIMS.
IN FACT, THE PAST TWO WEEKS ALL
BUT ELIMINATED THE JOBS CREATED
IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
STEVE, YOU HAVE A CHART ON WHERE
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS LIKELY
HEADED FROM HERE.
HOW BAD DO YOU SEE IT GETTING?
>> SURE, WILLIE.
WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT.
YOU KNOW, LOOK, IN ME MEACHAM’S
HONOR, LET ME SAY, WE’RE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE BEGINNING HERE.
YOU’RE SEEING THE LEADING EDGE
OF WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.
THERE WILL BE UNEMPLOYMENT
NUMBERS TOMORROW, BUT THEY’LL BE
RELATIVELY BENIGN BECAUSE
THEY’RE GATHERED BURG THEDURING
MIDDLE OF MARCH, BEFORE MOST OF
THIS HIT.
THIS HIT. AHEAD
AHEAD AHEAD, YOU CAN SEE WHERE WE’RE
GOING FROM HERE, WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY INTO DOUBLE DIGIT
UNEMPLOYMENT.
UNEMPLOYMENT. THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CHART,
WE’VE BEEN SITTING AT 3.5%.
FIRST QUARTER WILL BE AROUND
3.7%, FOR THE REASONS I SAID.
THEN WE’RE JUST GOING TO GO UP
LIKE A ROCKET SHIP.
THESE ARE GOLDMAN SACHS’
PROJECTIONS.
PROJECTIONS. IF YOU LOOK AT MOST OTHER
MAINSTREAM ECONOMISTS, YOU’LL
SEE SOMETHING VERY MUCH LIKE
THIS.
THIS. THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR,
WHICH JUST STARTED YESTERDAY,
THE DAY BEFORE.
WE GO TO 13.2%.
THE THIRD QUARTER OVER THE
SUMMER, THEY’RE PROJECTING WE’LL
HIT 14.7%.
HIT 14.7%. JUST FOR REFERENCE, YOU CAN SEE
THE DOTTED RED LINE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE.
MIDDLE. THAT’S OUR 2009 PEAK AT 10%.
WE’RE TALKING ABOUT AN
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 50% HIGHER
THAN WHERE WE GOT TO DURING THE
GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS.
MANY PEOPLE SAY TO THEMSELVES,
WELL, THIS IS GOING TO BE A
V-SHAPE RECOVERY.
V-SHAPE RECOVERY. WE’LL BOUNCE BACK AS FAST AS WE
BOUNCED DOWN BECAUSE PEOPLE WILL
GO BACK TO WORK.
IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT THE
PROJECTIONS SHOW, THAT’S NOT
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT.
WE’RE LOOKING AT A LONG, SLOW
RECOVERY IN JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE GOING TO 9.5% AT THE END OF
THIS YEAR.
THIS YEAR. THEN YOU CAN SEE QUARTER BY
QUARTER.
QUARTER. END OF NEXT YEAR, 6.3%, STILL
VERY HIGH IN 2020.
5.2%.
5.2%. WE DON’T GET BACK TO ANYTHING
LIKE WHERE WE ARE TODAY UNTIL
2023, WHICH IS A VERY LONG TIME
FROM NOW.
FROM NOW. THEN JUST ONE LITTLE POLITICAL
FOOTNOTE, DONALD TRUMP WILL
PROBABLY BE FACING DOUBLE DIGIT
UNEMPLOYMENT ON ELECTION DAY
THIS FALL.
THIS FALL. WE CAN ALL DEBATE THE
CONSEQUENCES OF THAT.
>> STEVE, A LOT OF THOSE JOBS,
OBVIOUSLY, FALL IN SMALL
BUSINESSES THAT MAY HAVE TO SHUT
THEIR DOORS THROUGH THIS.
THEY DON’T HAVE THE MONEY TO
KEEP RUNNING THROUGH THIS
CRISIS.
CRISIS. LET’S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
THE PPP, WHICH IS THE PAYCHECK
PROTECTION PROGRAM.
PROTECTION PROGRAM. THAT’S THE SMALL BUSINESS LOANS.
350 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE $2.2
TRILLION STIMULUS PACKAGE.
THEY’RE SUPPOSED TO GO OUT
TODAY.
TODAY. WE HEARD FROM BIG BANKS THERE’S
CHAOS.
CHAOS. THEY DON’T KNOW THE RULES OR HOW
TO IMPLEMENT THIS PROGRAM.
I HEARD FROM THE HEAD OF A
MID-SIZED BANK IN THE SOUTH.
VERY CONCERNED.
VERY CONCERNED. THEY WANT TO GET THE MONEY TO
THEIR CUSTOMERS, BUT THEY HAVE
NO GUIDANCE AT ALL FROM
TREASURY.
TREASURY. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING ABOUT HOW
THEY PROGRAM IS GOING TO ROLL
OUT?
OUT? >> IT’S ROLLING OUT SLOWLY, AS
YOU IMPLIED.
YOU IMPLIED. LOOK, I WOULD SAY, AND A LITTLE
AS JEFFREY WAS SAYING, TO BE
TWO-HANDED ABOUT THIS, THESE ARE
NEW PROGRAMS.
NEW PROGRAMS. THEY’RE VERY COMPLICATED AND
HARD TO IMPLEMENT.
THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLING OUT
VERY, VERY SLOWLY.
THERE’S ENORMOUS CONFUSION AMONG
THE SMALL BUSINESS COMMUNITY AS
TO HOW TO ACCESS THIS AND
GETTING NOT A LOT OF RESPONSE
WHEN THEY MAKE PHONE CALLS,
SENDING EMAILS, THINGS LIKE
THAT.
THAT. I’D POINT OUT THERE ARE $375
BILLION FOR THAT PROGRAM IN THE
LEGISLATION.
LEGISLATION. MOST PEOPLE THINK THAT NUMBER IS
WAY TOO SMALL.
BEFORE THIS IS OVER, WE’RE GOING
TO NEED SOMETHING LIKE $1
TRILLION.
TRILLION. EVEN THEN, MANY SMALL BUSINESSES
ARE NOT GOING TO KNOW HOW TO USE
THIS.
THIS. IT IS NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH.
THEY’RE NOT GOING TO WANT TO
ACCESS IT.
ACCESS IT. SO YOU’RE GOING TO SEE -- THIS
IS PART OF WHAT I WAS SAYING
BEFORE -- YOU’LL SEE MANY, MANY
BUSINESSES SIMPLY SHUT DOWN AND
NOT BE ABLE TO REOPEN.
THAT IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF
DESTRUCTION TO THE ECONOMY.
IT’LL BE HARD TO UNTANGLE.
>> SO, STEVE, JUST ALSO TRYING
TO MAP THIS OUT, DON’T YOU NEED
TWO IMPORTANT FACTORS AS YOU
LOOK INTO THE FUTURE AS TO HOW
BAD THIS -- CAN I USE THE WORD
DEPRESSION -- WILL LOOK LIKE?
WITHOUT REALLY CONSISTENT,
COMPLETE TESTING ACROSS THE
BOARD, WHERE YOU HAVE RAPID
TESTING FOR THE CORONAVIRUS, AS
WELL AS THE ANTIBODY TESTING, TO
KNOW IF SOMEBODY HAS HAD IT
BEFORE.
BEFORE. IF YOU DON’T HAVE THAT, ALONG
WITH A VACCINE, HOW CAN YOU SEE
INTO THE FUTURE, TOO FAR INTO
IT, TO SEE HOW BAD THIS IS GOING
TO GET?
TO GET? HOW IMPORTANT ARE THOSE TWO
FACTORS?
FACTORS? >> CRITICALLY IMPORTANT.
FIRST, TO GO BACK A STEP, I
THINK SOMEONE SAID THIS WAS NOT
SELF-INFLICTED.
SELF-INFLICTED. THAT’S ABSOLUTELY TRUE.
THE VIRUS WAS NOT
SELF-INFLICTED.
SELF-INFLICTED. IF WE HAD MOVED FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE SOCIAL
DISTANCING, ALL THE POLICIES
THAT ARE SLOWLY AND HALTINGLY,
AS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE
LAST 15 MINUTES, COME INTO
PLACE, IF WE HAD MOVED FASTER,
AS CHINA ULTIMATELY DID, WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN, I THINK, BETTER
NUMBERS ON JOBS THAN WHAT WE’RE
LOOKING AT HERE, BETTER NUMBERS
ON THE ECONOMY.
WE WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GET
PEOPLE BACK TO WORK.
YES, FROM AN ECONOMIC POINT OF
VIEW, WHAT YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE
TO KNOW, AND WE DON’T KNOW, BUT
YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A
VIEW ABOUT IS HOW QUICKLY PEOPLE
ARE GOING TO GET BACK TO WORK.
THAT, IN TURN, MAY REVOLVE, TO
SOME DEGREE, AROUND HOW SOON
THERE ARE VACCINES AVAILABLE,
ANTIBODY TESTING, WHEN PEOPLE
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING BACK TO
WORK.
WORK. NO ECONOMIST WOULD PROFESS
SPECIAL INSIGHT INTO THAT.
PUBLIC HEALTH PEOPLE DO.
AS YOU KNOW, AND AS WE LISTEN TO
THEM, NOBODY REALLY KNOWS FOR
SURE.
SURE. SO WE’RE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
PUBLIC HEALTH SIDE OF THIS THING
WORKING FOR THE ECONOMY TO WORK.
IF WE CAN’T SOLVE THE PUBLIC
HEALTH SIDE, GET PEOPLE TO A
PLACE WHERE THEY’RE COMFORTABLE
GOING BACK TO WORK, THE NUMBERS
I SHOWED YOU COULD BE WORSE.
IT COULD BE EVEN WORSE.
>> STEVE RATTNER, THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
MUCH. >>> STILL AHEAD ON "MORNING
JOE," THE MAYOR OF NEW YORK
CITY, BILL de BLASIO, IS OUR
GUEST.
GUEST. >>> PLUS, WE’LL SWING OVER TO
LONDON FOR THE VERY LATEST ON
THE OVERSEAS BATTLE AGAINST THE
VIRUS AND HOW IT COMPARES TO
HERE AT HOME.
>>> FIRST, THE NAVY JUST
RELIEVED A CAPTAIN WHO RAISED
ALARMS ABOUT A CORONAVIRUS
OUTBREAK ON AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER.
NBC’S COURTNEY KUBE HAS THAT
REPORTING NEXT.
REPORTING NEXT. YOU’RE WATCHING "MORNING JOE."