In October 2021, the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sparked a brief diplomatic crisis
when he announced that the ambassadors from 10 western countries - including the United States,
France and Germany - would no longer be welcome in Turkey.
It was a truly extraordinary development.
But while a face-saving solution was quickly found,
the incident is merely the tip of a far more serious problem
that could well mark the end of Turkey's century-long pivot towards Europe and the West.
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at International Relations, conflicts and the origins of countries.
One of the most interesting aspects of international relations is the way
in which countries forge a strategic orientation.
This can be driven by a combination of geographic,
ethnic, religious, economic, political and security factors.
And while such ties may become a fundamental part of the state's identity, they can change.
Sometimes there will be a sudden break, for example after a revolution.
At other times, it can be a far slower process.
One of the most interesting examples is Turkey.
Over the past century, it's pursued a European and Western orientation.
However, this is now increasingly in doubt.
In recent years, the relationship between Turkey and its key Western partners
has become increasingly strained - to the point that there are now real questions about whether,
or for how much longer, Turkey can really be considered to be a part of the West.
This was underscored in late October 2021, when the Turkish president announced that
the country was preparing to declare 10 western ambassadors persona non
grata - in essence announcing that they were no longer welcome in the country.
While the crisis was seemingly resolved, in truth the underlying issues remain very much in place.
Turkey lies at the far eastern end of the Mediterranean.
At 780,000 square kilometres, or 300,000
square miles, it's the 36th largest of the 193 members of the United Nations.
Its population currently stands at around 84 million, putting it in 17th place.
Our story really starts at the end of the First World War and the effective
collapse of the Ottoman Empire, which had dominated the Muslim world for five centuries.
As plans were made to carve up the remnants of the Empire, Turkish nationalist forces, led by
Mustafa Kemal, better known as Ataturk, fought back; eventually creating the Republic of Turkey.
The new Turkish republic set out on a path of modernisation and Europeanisation.
Islam was pushed out of the public realm and the latin alphabet introduced to
replace the old Ottoman Arabic script.
In 1950, Turkey became a member of the recently established North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO), the main Western security body, and joined the Council of Europe,
the continent's key human rights organisation.
A decade later, in 1963, it signed an association agreement with the European Economic Community,
which would eventually become the European Union, opening the possibility of eventual membership.
However, in the years that followed, while Turkey appeared to be increasingly linked to the West,
its hopes of moving towards European integration made little progress.
Several military coups called into question
its commitment to democracy, a key element of EU membership.
At the same time, tensions grew with EU-member and fellow NATO partner Greece,
not least of all over Cypru.
But there was also a sense that Turkey,
which remained overwhelmingly Muslim, despite its officially secular nature,
was being kept locked out of what many had come to regard as a Christian club.
This impression intensified with the end of the Cold War and the EU's decision to open
up membership for the formerly communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
By the end of the 1990s, relations between Turkey and the European Union were increasingly strained.
With the EU aware that it couldn't indefinitely keep Turkey on hold, and following a breakthrough
in relations with Greece, in 1999 Turkey finally became a candidate for EU membership.
In the years that followed, Turkey appeared to make real progress on its path to EU accession.
Ironically, it was the election of an overtly religious administration, in November 2002,
that changed things.
The victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
a former mayor of Istanbul who'd been imprisoned for Islamist sedition,
seemingly heralded a new direction for Turkey.
Seeing EU membership as a way to open up religious freedom and challenge the power of the military,
Erdogan gave new impetus to solving Cyprus and introducing political reforms.
This paid off in 2005 when Turkey formally opened EU membership discussions.
But the problems soon set in.
Having emerged as a pro-European reformist, Erdogan's political outlook began to change.
Alongside growing autocratic tendencies,
human rights reforms were rolled back and media freedoms were curtailed.
This came to a head in May 2013,
when massive protests erupted across Turkey - sparking a harsh crackdown.
Three years later, elements within the military launched an attempted coup
against the Erdogan administration.
Blaming the uprising on a religious opponent based in the United States,
Erdogan launched a major purge of suspected opposition.
Tens of thousands were arrested and hundreds of thousands fired from their jobs.
One of those arrested was Osman Kavala, a wealthy Turkish businessman and philanthropist,
who'd set up several non-governmental organisations in the field of human rights,
culture and environmental protection.
Charged with attempting to overthrow the government and constitutional order,
he was held in pre-trial detention.
After this was repeatedly extended by Turkish courts, he took his case to the European
Court of Human Rights - the principal judicial organ of the Council of Europe.
In December 2019, the Court unanimously ruled that he had been deprived of his
right to liberty and timely justice and ordered his immediate release.
However, despite its obligation as a member of the Council of Europe
to adhere to rulings of the ECHR, Turkey refused to set him free.
As a result, in September 2021, the Council of Europe announced that it would begin
infringement proceedings against Turkey if he wasn't released by the end of November.
This could ultimately lead to Turkey's suspension from the organisation, or even expulsion.
It was this that led the ambassadors of 10 countries, including the United States and France,
to sign a joint letter calling on the Turkish government to abide by the Court's ruling.
As they noted, Turkey's failure to do so was undermining democracy
and the rule of law in the country.
Furious at the move, Erdogan announced that the ambassadors were no longer welcome in the country.
Almost immediately, talk grew of a major crisis.
But amidst pressure on the Turkish lira, and speculation about a permanent rupture with key
allies, the matter was quickly defused when the United States and the others
released a statement announcing that they abided by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations,
which prohibits diplomats from interfering in the internal affairs of host states.
Although this could in fact be read as a justification for their letter,
which in fact reminded Turkey of its international obligations,
it also provided enough ambiguity to allow the Turkish government to back down.
It withdrew the threat to expel the ambassadors, stating that it was satisfied that the countries
in question had learned their lesson and that they would be more careful from now on.
While it's tempting to think that the crisis was averted, and the matter is now closed,
in truth the issue of the ambassadors was merely a sideshow.
The crisis is still very much with us.
First of all, even though Turkey appeared to back down, Erdogan's
announcement further emphasised the expanding rift between Turkey and its western partners.
As well as differences over Turkey's domestic trajectory,
concerns have also been growing at Ankara's foreign policy.
Most worryingly, in recent years Erdogan has forged a close relationship with Putin's Russia.
At the same time, he's been increasingly willing to blame Turkey's growing problems on the West
and use it to deflect from economic difficulties.
Europe and the United States are no longer seen as allies.
Instead, they're now presented as opponents.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the dispute also shows just how little
Turkey now seems to care about sticking to the basic rules of the Western club.
Adherence to the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights
is not only a fundamental prerequisite for membership of the Council of Europe,
it's also a fundamental requirement for membership of the European Union.
In this sense, there's an argument to be made that what we're now seeing
could well be the beginnings of the final stages of Turkey's estrangement from the West.
But will it actually happen?
As strange as it may seem, the decision doesn't really rest with Turkey.
In truth, most observers believe that it's already broken with the West.
Instead, the decision on a final political separation
really rests with the European Union and the United States.
Do they want to allow that final break to happen?
And it's here that we're now seeing the most important debates.
On the one hand, there's a growing body of opinion that the time has come to make the break.
Proponents of this view argue that Turkey can no longer be regarded as an ally,
let alone a country that shares fundamental values with its partners.
EU membership talks should stop.
It should be suspended, if not expelled,
from the Council of Europe if it doesn't comply with its obligations.
And some are even now calling for it to be thrown out of NATO.
However, balanced against this are the pragmatists.
They argue that EU accession talks have now ground to a halt,
and that Turkey is no longer a realistic candidate for membership anyway,
but there's little sense in breaking the relationship completely.
As they see it, the situation would be made much worse if Turkey was cut loose.
Ankara would inevitably cement its partnership with other troublesome forces, such as Russia.
It could also have negative consequences in the Muslim world,
where many would see it as final proof that the West is implacably opposed to Islam.
Far better to keep turkey in the club, even nominally, than to force it out.
And then there are the optimists.
While they despair of Turkey under Erdogan,
they hope that the time may come when Turkey returns back to the European track.
In their view, it's far better to keep the possibility of this alive,
and hopefully encourage pro-Western forces in Turkey,
than to make the break and reduce the choice to religious or secular nationalism.
Although, even in this camp, many now wonder whether Turkey has passed the point of no return.
In this sense, the prevailing view is that, for all the problems Turkey brings to the table,
it's better to keep it part of the West - even in name only - than force a final split.
The problem is that with every new crisis that argument becomes harder to sustain.
More to the point, if the Turkish government continues to choose to ignore the ECHR
something will have to be done; if only to protect the integrity of a body
that's so important for the protection of human rights across Europe.
This is why the Kavala case is so important.
It may yet force a final decision to have to be made
on issues that would fundamentally affect Turkey's place in the West.
Despite emerging as a secular republic with a European orientation,
and joining key Western organisations, Turkey has always had a complex relationship with the West.
However, the past decade or so has seen this thrown into doubt in unprecedented ways.
Quite apart from the serious domestic challenges to democratic values and human rights norms,
Turkey has also forged an increasingly nationalistic path in the world,
including building close ties with Russia.
The question now is whether, almost a century after it was established, the Turkish Republic
is now about to take the final steps to break that relationship - or whether, for all their
obvious frustration with Ankara, the United States and EU will really let that happen?
I hope you found that interesting. If so, here are some more videos you might find useful.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.