There are many conceivable sources of conflict around the world that the United States should
endeavor to prevent or at least ameliorate in some way.
To help U.S. policy makers prioritize these efforts, CFR's Center for Preventive Action
conducts a survey of leading experts each year to assess a wide range of contingencies
in terms of their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests.
According to this year's survey results, there are three broad areas of concern that most
worry foreign policy experts in 2014:
The first is the widespread and growing unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.
The civil war in Syria, now in its third year, shows no sign of abating.
Over 100,000 people have died in the fighting and millions have been displaced to neighboring
countries.
Jordan in particular is under intense strain from the inflow of refugees and could be destabilized
as a consequence.
The war has also empowered Syrian-Kurds who want to establish an independent state, which
likewise emboldens Kurds in neighboring Iraq and Turkey who are also seeking greater independence.
Elsewhere, sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shia in Iraq is increasing and could metastasize
into a full scale civil war.
The situation in Yemen is also extremely unstable and there are signs of Al-Qaeda's growing
influence there.
In North Africa, the situation in Egypt remains unsettled and widespread violence could easily
erupt again with destabilizing consequences.
And in Libya, the power of the militant groups has grown since the overthrow of the Qaddafi
regime and the ability of the central authorities to govern effectively remains in doubt.
Last but not least, much still remains to be done to secure a satisfactory settlement
with Iran over its nuclear program.
The current interim deal is quite fragile and could easily fall apart leading to renewed
tensions with Iran and the possibility of a major regional war.
The broad area of concern is rising tensions in East Asia.
Relations between China and Japan continue to deteriorate ostensibly over their territorial
dispute in the East China Sea.
This dispute is becoming increasingly militarized and thus the risk of either a miscalculation
or an accident occurring that leads to serious incident between the two countries is very
real.
As an ally of Japan, the United States has much at stake in this dispute.
Similar territorial disputes in the South China Sea—again involving U.S. allies----
also show no signs of being resolved and could easily flare up again.
These remain potent sources of mistrust in the region.
Finally, the internal situation in North Korea continues to be a major worry as it is unclear
whether the recent purges of senior officials including the leader's uncle will presage
a period of acute instability and more military provocations.
The third area is growing insecurity in South Asia.
As the United States continues its military drawdown in Afghanistan, there is considerable
concern that this will be accompanied by increased instability and violence.
The continued presence of U.S. forces after 2014 still remains to be determined and many
fear that Afghanistan will once again descend into civil war.
The political situation in neighboring Pakistan also remains fragile and could also easily
deteriorate for a variety of reasons.
Its relations with India continue to be poor and many fear that militant activity in Kashmir
could cause another major crisis in the short term.
Finally, the political situation in Bangladesh has worsened over another contentious election
due in January 2014.
The possibility of widespread violence is very real.