After over a year of asking, Ukraine is finally getting the Army Tactical Missile System,
more famously known as ATACMS.
And it's going to absolutely ruin Russia's plan to take over Ukraine.
Ukraine has been asking for ATACMS since the start of the fighting, but the west unfortunately
fell for Putin's fear trap.
Quoting fears of escalation, President Joe Biden declined Ukraine's requests for the
long-range precision missile, and these same fears of an imaginary escalation unfortunately
delayed the delivery of badly needed weapon systems like Leopard 2 and Abrams tanks, Bradley
and other IFVs, and F-16s.
We're not going to make any bones about this: while the west was browning its pants over
making Putin and his ineffectual army angry, Ukrainians were dying.
A lot of those dead Ukrainian civilians and soldiers both would still be alive if the
west had provided heavy equipment much faster than it did.
Of course there's two sides to every coin, and after navigating the deadly intrigue of
the Cold War, it's hard to blame the west for fears of an escalatory war on Europe's
doorstep.
Especially when Russia still has more nukes than any other power on earth- even if most
of those nukes are probably filled with potatoes because corrupt generals sold the warheads
and fuel off at local flea markets for vodka.
However, even Russia isn't completely suicidal.
Sure, they'll happily send their soldiers off to certain slaughter, and defeating the
enemy by hurling hundreds of conscripts at them until they run out of ammo is a time-honored
strategy taught in the finest of Russian military academies.
But the Russian state still frowns on the idea of all-out nuclear annihilation for both
itself and the world at large, if the world is blown up where are the oligarchs going
to sail their mega yachts to?
After it became clear that the Russian military was an ineffectual bunch of clown shoes, there
was little reason except an unhealthy abundance of caution for not providing Ukraine with
heavy weapons.
Ironically, the nations who would be threatened if the war expanded to a hilariously one-sided
conflict with NATO were exactly the ones who were sending their heavy equipment to Ukraine
and calling on the west to follow suit.
Poland practically drove its own tanks straight to the Kremlin, and likely would need very
little provocation to do so even today.
Gradually policy has shifted, but one major taboo remained: precision long-range weapons.
The US has stated multiple times it would not provide Ukraine with these weapons out
of fear it would use them to strike inside Russia- it even made sure the rockets it provides
for HIMARS have a limited range.
This however is grossly unfair to the Ukrainian people, as Russia is free to launch attacks
from its military facilities on its own soil against Ukraine, without the risk of being
struck back.
Russia's complacency, fueled by confidence Ukraine wouldn't anger the west by attacking
it directly, even led to the multiple humiliation invasions of Belgorod by Russian volunteer
fighters such as the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps.
These long-range weapons though are critical for Ukraine's military success, because without
it its forces are perpetually on the backfoot.
Even equipped with superior western vehicles, Ukraine is finding it difficult to advance
in the face of Russia's air cover and long range artillery, with Russia's air force playing
a reinvigorated role in the war and taking a serious toll on Ukraine's counterattacking
forces at the moment.
Russia also has the manpower advantage, and for now at least, the supply advantange.
In a tit for tat exchange, Ukraine can never hope to win no matter how many fancy tanks
the west gives it- which is why the ability to strike deep behind the front lines is so
critical for its success.
Yet the west has been hesitant to give Ukraine the tools it really needs- until early in
May, when Britain said “hold my tea and lingering colonial holdings” and went ahead
and gave Ukraine dozens of Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Once more leading the way in breaking international taboos, Britain did what it did with tanks
and told the world to ante' up as it donated exactly the weapon Ukraine needed to strike
deep behind the front lines.
Now we have confirmation that the United States is at last following suit with the ATACMs.
Revealed as a line item for future funding for Ukraine, the US is setting aside about
$80 million for ATACMs missiles to be delivered to Ukraine.
This will net Ukraine about 50 or so missiles, though nobody would be surprised when it gets
a hell of a lot more than that as the west so far has kept many of its surprise weapons
deliveries and their quantities close to its collective chest.
To see just how much of a game changer they'll be, we only have to look at the effectiveness
of Storm Shadow so far.
Nobody is quite sure which variant of Storm Shadow Britain has given to Ukraine, but many
have theorized it's the shorter range export model.
What we do know is that Russian targets as far east as the Sea of Azov have picked up
a nasty habit of suddenly exploding.
With a range of 500 kilometers- or 1, 795,200 Subway Meatball Marinara Footlongs for our
fellow Americans- Storm Shadow missiles can strike pretty much anywhere in occupied territory,
and significantly outside of it if need be as well.
In typical Russian Ministry of Defense fashion, they've claimed to have shot down every single
Storm Shadow delivered to Ukraine, as well as every Storm Shadow in the British inventory
itself.
However, recently a Russian colonel admitted in a public interview that Storm Shadow missiles
were giving them significant trouble.
According to the anonymous colonel, while Russian air defenses have gotten better at
handling American HIMARs rockets, Storm Shadow was proving difficult to intercept.
He estimated only a 50% intercept rate, and blamed it on Storm Shadow's ability to maneuver
and fly at low heights on its way to a target.
The intelligent missile will frequently switch up its flight path, forcing an air defense
unit to recalculate an intercept point for the incoming missiles.
Soon Storm Shadow will be joined by ATACMs, but what is this weapon exactly and why does
Russia fear it?
ATACMS traces its heritage back to the late Cold War, as the US and its allies shifted
to a brand new warfighting doctrine: AirLand battle.
This doctrine sought to achieve victory over the much larger-in-number Soviet bloc forces
by attacking them with smaller, more manueverable units, while launching strikes in the deep
area with aircraft and missiles.
Unlike their western counterparts, Soviet bloc forces fielded large formations with
strict top-down command structures that disincentivized individual initiative.
Thus the US sought to sever their command and control links either by attacks on the
communication infrastructure or enemy command posts- or both- throwing entire formations
into disarray.
Attacks with smaller, more mobile ground forces from multiple directions would overwhelm local
command and control, as troops sought direction from above rather than act on their own initiative.
Manuever warfare would thus win the day against much larger forces thrown into disarray.
AirLand battle would achieve greater success than anyone had ever envisioned when the US
and its allies faced off against Saddam Hussein in Desert Storm.
At the time Iraq had one of the largest armies and air forces in the world, and many feared
that this would be the start of a new world war.
Instead, much more agile American forces routed large Iraqi formations, while aircraft and
deep strike missile systems disrupted Iraq's ability to command its troops or resupply
them.
However, during the Cold War, the US didn’t have a tactical ballistic missile.
In the late 70s, the west rejected the necessity of using tactical nuclear weapons to fight
the Soviets in Europe, and thus the US began investing in the development of a long-range
tactical ballistic missile with a conventional warhead.
At the time precision weapons were in their infancy, and a long way away from lobbing
bombs down air shafts like in Desert Storm.
US Army Missile Command sponsored the Simplified Inertial Guidance Demonstrator program with
the intent of fielding a conventional missile that could strike deep behind the front and
at enemy reserves.
Advancements in inertial guidance systems allowed for the creation of missiles that
could have incredible accuracy, and DARPA began experimenting with this technology for
a program it called Assault Breaker.
This secret program attempted to develop a conventional missile with extremely high precision
that could be used to engage mobile targets such as tank and armored vehicle formations
using cluster warheads.
DARPA's Assault Breaker and the US Air Force's Conventional Standoff Weapon programs would
be merged in 1981, leading to the creation of the Joint Tactical Missile System.
However, in 1984 the Air Force balked at the idea of an air-launched ballistic missile,
opting to develop cruise missiles instead.
Thus JTACMS was renamed Army Tactical Missile System.
ATACMS would prove its worth during Desert Storm in 1991, with 32 of them fired from
M270 MLRS batteries.
A decade later, 450 ATACMS would be fired during Operation Iraqi Freedom, with a total
of 560 ATACMS fired in anger over the missile's life.
However, despite being a successful and battle proven weapon, in 2007 the US Army decided
to terminate the entire program due to the cost of upkeep and procurement.
At the time the US was focused on asymmetrical threats like terrorists, and made the foolish
mistake of believing that no nation in the future would ever wage war again, resolving
their conflicts instead with friendly games of Twister.
Rather than trash their stockpile though, the Army began a service life extension program
to keep missiles ready for use.
Propulsion and navigation systems were replaced, and cluster munition warheads were upgraded
toh ave a blast fragmentation warhead equipped with a proximity fuze to achieve a similar
effect.
With international war back on the menu thanks to China and Russia, the Army realizes it
needs a replacement for ATACMs, prompting the development of a brand new missile system.
The aging of the US ATACMS stockpile, as well as the cost of life extension programs, is
likely one big reason why they're suddenly being donated to Ukraine.
The British are doing the exact same thing with their Storm Shadow missiles, donating
its older stock as it works to acquire a new and more modern missile to replace its own
inventory.
With ATACMS' replacement in the pipeline, the US faces two choices: trash them or let
Ukraine drop them on invading Russian's heads.
However, there's another valid reason why the US may have waited this long to provide
ATACMS to Ukraine.
Unlike Storm Shadow, ATACMS is a ballistic missile, reaching a height of up to 50 kilometers-
or 4,885.5 AR-15s for our fellow Americans- before plummeting down at Mach 3 on its target.
While speed is good, having a ballistic trajectory is very easy to predict.
This is the reason why Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic weapons have failed the test in Ukraine, as
American Patriot batteries swat them out of the sky with ease.
This means Russian air defenses should have a relatively easy time knocking these missiles
out of the sky- at least when their own missiles aren't defecting to the Ukrainian side and
blowing up their own troops.
This is where timing matters, because as the war has progressed Russia's stockpile of air
defense missiles has dwindled.
Ukraine has famously warned the west about a shortage of its own missiles, prompting
an overly sensationalist media to sound the alarm bell that Ukraine would be out of missiles
in weeks back in April.
However, its missile shortage is real- which is why the US has dispatched engineers to
try to figure out how to make Ukraine's Soviet S-300 batteries fire American air defense
missiles.
Russia has been tight lipped about its own stockpile, but we do know that it's not producing
many new missiles thanks to sanctions.
Famously, shortly after the start of the war, one plant manufacturing missiles for S-300
and S-400 batteries was forced to close down, with its workers given the option of taking
a long-term unpaid vacation or signing a contract to fight on the front.
The culprit was a critical shortage of microchips due to western sanctions.
While microchps are smuggled into the country, and China has been secretly supplying them,
the huge markup and limited quantities make mass production of missiles impossible.
With air defenses significantly attrited or simply low on interceptors, now is the time
for big, fat, ATACMS missiles to have a better chance of hitting their targets.
In fact it's hard not to see the current donation of Storm Shadow missiles before ATACMS arrives
early next year as a coordinated event.
With a 50% intercept rate, Russia will have to expend many more missiles than normal to
protect vital infrastructure, eating up its inventory and helping clear the skies for
the more vulnerable ATACMS.
Once they arrive in country, Russian forces all across the occupied areas will be in serious
trouble.
Storm Shadow features a significant warhead of 450 kilograms- or about 99.2 bald eagles
for our American brothers and sisters.
ATACMS however can fit a warhead of 600 kilograms- or 66.14 thanksgiving turkeys for our fellow
freedom-fries loving Americans.
Being a rather hefty boy though, ATACMS has a much shorter range- only about 300 kilometers-
or 50,641 Ford F150 Super Cabs for everyone who's ever landed on the moon.
However, this range is more than enough to service most Russian targets in occupied territories.
Further complicating the Russian situation is the fact that ATACMS has an ace up its
sleeve that its more nimble, tea drinking Storm Shadow cousin doesn't.
While Storm Shadow must be fired from either stationary ground stations, limiting its range,
or aircraft for maximum range, ATACMS can be fired from M270 MLRS batteries already
provided to Ukraine- or every Russian's favorite, Uncle HIMARS.
This makes ATACMS a highly mobile missile system that can strike when you least expect
it and penetrate deep, while its operators drive away before they can be destroyed.
This mobility is such a threat to Russia that it has dedicated significant effort to locating
and destroying Ukrainians HIMARS vehicles, claiming to have destroyed every single on
at least three times over.
However, the US has confirmed that Ukraine has not lost a single HIMARS system since
they made their debut last summer- though it would be hard to blame the Russians on
this one, since Ukraine has built dozens of plywood decoys which Russia has definitely
blown to splinters.
So what can Russia do to counter ATACMS when it arrives?
The first thing is try and get it to never enter Ukraine in the first place.
Expect more empty threats and nuclear saber rattling from Putin as the new year approaches,
as he attempts to scare the west into not supporting further aid to Ukraine.
This is why it's important to educate yourself and others: Russia cannot militarily escalate
this conflict without resorting to nuclear weapons, and that's a losing proposition for
everyone on the planet- but probably more for Russia because again, their nukes are
probably full of potatoes after conscripts stole the warheads and wiring for cigarette
money.
A conventional escalation is simply impossible, with the Russian armed forces now officially
being the second best military inside of Russia, after Wagner PMC.
The second thing that Russia can do to counter ATACMS is, well, nothing.
Its inability to intercept and destroy HIMARS batteries means that it'll likewise be unable
to destroy ATACMS as well when loaded onto their launchers, or while in transit or in
storage.
This is because Russia is not very good at intelligence and reconnaissance, and even
worse at rapidly servicing targets of opportunity- all capabilities the US military has invested
absolutely criminal amounts of money into.
We may not be able to afford healthcare, but we can detect short-range Houthi rebel missile
launches from orbit, and put a missile of our own through their front window in return
if we wanted to.
Russia's ability to conduct even basic damage assessments is so bad, that it can take up
up to a day or more to determine if an air or missile strike was successful before deciding
to attack the same target again.
This leaves it with no hope of interdicting ATACMS before they're launched, though if
it can replenish its air defense batteries it's got a good chance of intercepting them
after they're launched.
At least when its air defenses aren't trying to kill their own side.
Now go check out Ukraine's plan to move the war inside Russia, or click this other video
instead!