Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for October to December 2022.
While the eastern half of Australia can again expect above average rainfall over the coming
months, it's likely to be drier than usual for much of the west.
But first, let's look at recent conditions.
Apart from the south-western corner of both Western Australia and Tasmania, nearly all
of Australia had above average rainfall this September.
Unusually high amounts of rain fell in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.
Some intense rainfall this month led to many rivers flooding in New South Wales,
northern Victoria and southern Queensland.
Temperatures across northern Australia have been unusually high this month.
Yampi Sound recorded a maximum temperature of 42.8 degrees on the 22nd.
This was Australia’s hottest temperature on record for that early in spring.
Again, it was a land of contrasts with much cooler than average September days
further south, particularly in parts of the eastern states.
Perisher in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains had its coldest September night since 2013
dropping to minus 10 degrees on the 13th.
Soils remain wetter than average across large areas, mostly where there's been more rain
than usual for this time of year.
For large parts of the Murray Darling Basin, soils are now unable to hold much more water,
with increasingly wet soils leading to high runoff,
Most water storages are at higher levels than this time last year.
Storages in the Murray-Darling Basin are particularly high, with several now spilling,
including Dartmouth Dam in Victoria; the first time it has spilled since 1996.
So what's likely to shape our climate over the coming months?
We recently declared a La Niña in the Pacific Ocean.
This typically brings more rain to eastern Australia, an earlier start to the northern
wet season, and an increased risk of tropical cyclones.
To our west, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues, which also increases the chance
of rain at this time of year.
Combined with warmer waters around our north, and weather systems generally further south
than normal, this typically means more rainfall over Australia.
So, what is the outlook for the coming 3 months?
A high chance of above average rainfall remains for the eastern half of Australia.
But it's also likely to be drier than usual
for most of Western Australia and parts of western Tasmania.
Large parts of eastern Australia have an increased risk of unusually
wet conditions over the coming months.
Higher than average streamflows are expected at more than 80% of forecast locations
across the eastern mainland and northern Tasmania.
It's rare to see this much blue on the streamflow map, showing just how much
water is still flowing through these catchments.
Any further rain increases the flood risk particularly in eastern Australia,
where soils are wet and rivers and storage levels are already high.
With more cloud than normal, days are likely to be cooler across large parts of the mainland.
But warm temperatures are likely to continue across the tropical far north,
much of Western Australia and Tasmania.
So, in summary, October to December 2022 is likely to see:
above average rainfall for the eastern half of Australia
cooler days across much of the mainland warmer days in the tropical north,
far west and Tasmania and an increased risk of flooding in the eastern states.
You can find the latest outlooks and any flood warnings on the Bureau's website.
Thank you for joining us.