the Joker will get the last laugh
welcome to watchmojo.com Phoenix will
win best actor for this list we're
looking at a variety of convincing
factors that make it highly probable
that Joaquin Phoenix will take home the
Oscar in the category of Best Actor at
the 90 second Academy Awards number 10
it's the most talked about performance
of the year
Joaquin Phoenix is nothing if not
consistent pretty much every performance
he's turned in since he rose to
prominence at the turn of the century
has been well received but even by his
own high standard of excellence his
performances arthur fleck is a standout
the critics were almost unanimously
blown away even those who otherwise took
issue with the film Rolling Stones Peter
Travers proclaimed himself to be at a
loss for words after seeing Joaquin's
performance in Mark Kermode of the
observer called Joaquin the film's quote
ace card both among critics and the
cinema going masses this is the
performance people cannot stop
discussing number 9
he's the bookies favorite we're
definitely not saying you should be
putting down money on Joaquin Phoenix to
win but hey if there's anybody who needs
to have a handle on the odds it's the
people whose livelihoods depend on it
and the odds are indeed looking good for
Phoenix to take home the big prize now
odds makers have different methodologies
and the actual odds change all the time
but major books have Phoenix heavily
favored sometimes in the range of
negative 2000 which sounds bad but is
actually overwhelmingly good you'd have
to bet a lot to get a relatively paltry
return if he wins in other words they
think Joaquin is something close to a
sure bet number 8 social relevance
always plays well the Academy likes a
movie with a message
moonlight Dallas buyers club spotlight
these are the films that resonate and
those the themes and subject matter
explored in Joker are definitely heavy
and downright controversial there is no
denying that despite being set in the
1980s Joker feels relevant they've cut
our funding we're closing down our
offices next week questions of mental
health alienation last division and
senseless acts of violence are all at
the forefront of society's current
public discourse and Joker touches on
all of them now this logic arguably
applies more directly to the Best
Picture category the Best Actor
but given that Phoenix's performance as
the beating heart of the film he is very
much the embodiment of all those
societal themes you just ask the same
questions every week how's your job are
you having any negative thoughts all I
have negative thoughts number seven
Joker feels like an old-school Scorsese
film director Todd Phillips where's his
Scorsese influence on his sleeve with
Joker is it just me getting crazier out
there both the film's cinematography and
its treatment of the central character
feel very reminiscent of the iconic
filmmakers earlier works most notably
taxi driver and the king of comedy this
city hears I can open sewer you know
it's full of Filth and scum though he
dropped out before production began
Scorsese was originally attached as a
producer even without the involvement of
the legendary director however Phillips
went ahead and made this an overt homage
Joker might technically be a comic-book
movie but it's first and foremost a
character study in the same vein as
Raging Bull and when character comes
first in a film reminiscent of such
classics that definitely appeals to the
Academy there's no way I'm going down I
don't know why I want you to know that
number 6 the Joker is a character with
an awards history it's no secret that
superhero films despite being the
leading force at the box office get very
little love from the award ceremonies
there's always been a line drawn between
film as entertainment and film as art
and comic book movies have typically
with few exceptions been labeled
entertainment you decide what's right or
wrong the same way that you decide
what's funny or not
last year black panther made history as
the first superhero film to be nominated
for Best Picture but before that Jack
Nicholson was nominated for a Golden
Globe for his turn as the Joker Jack is
dead my friend
John laying the groundwork for Heath
Ledger's posthumous Best Supporting
Actor Award an actor should never sign
up for a comic book movie with Oscar
aspirations but if they do Joker is the
role they should want number 5 his
competition isn't as steep we do not
mean that as a slight to any of
Joaquin's fellow nominees they all
delivered truly knockout performances
but when it comes to the Academy as
we've noted buzz is a big factor and
Phoenix has claimed much of it for
himself this year we're acting like him
Adam driver was phenomenal and marriage
story but he shares the spotlight with
Scarlett Johansson while Joker is the
Phoenix Show after Leonardo DiCaprio's
the revenant win and compared to Arthur
Fleck Rick Dalton feels like he commands
less attention as for Antonio Banderas
and Jonathan Pryce neither of their
respective films generated enough buzz
despite the high quality of their acting
we'd like to think that Phoenix's
performance would win any year but this
year's competition helps his odds number
4 the Academy is making efforts to stay
relevant though they may be considered
the highest honors in film the Academy
Award ceremony has notably been
struggling with viewership in recent
years the organizers have tried
everything to keep people engaged even
going so far as to hand out awards
during commercial breaks and though it's
the voting members who ultimately decide
who gets nominated and who doesn't there
seems to be a clear shift in mentality
towards a more populist approach in
short the Academy seems to be including
more films that the general public cares
about a Best Picture win for a fantasy
film involving an interspecies
relationship the shape of water and Rami
Malik's Best Actor win both feel
representative of a shift closer towards
popular opinion number 3 he won at the
Golden Globes earlier we said that
Joaquin Phoenix is not up against very
steep competition this year and if
you're in need of proof one need only
look at how he's been cleaning up at the
various award ceremonies that are
scheduled before the Oscars he's already
claimed wins in the Critics Choice Movie
Awards the Screen Actors Guild Awards
and most crucially the Golden Globe in
the Best Actor Motion Picture Drama
category
I know people say this but I really do
feel honored to be mentioned with you
while all major award shows help to
predict which actor will ultimately
claim the Oscar the Golden Globes drama
category has historically had the
strongest correlation it's also worth
noting that Joker won the Golden Lion at
the Venice Film Festival which while not
an acting award usually foreshadows good
things across the board at the Oscars
number two the Academy loves evil and
honestly isn't that something we can all
relate to there's just something so
compelling about a villain what you get
huh want to bring it on in the case of
the Academy voters specifically however
they tend to have a bit of a soft spot
for performances that take actors to a
dark place everybody is awful these days
it's enough to make anyone crazy ok so
that's it you're crazy that's your
defense for killing three young men many
are recognizable and likeable actor that
are known for playing morally upright
roles have finally realized their Oscar
dreams by playing the bad guy the
examples are numerous but just to name a
few
Denzel Washington and training day
Charlize Theron and monster JK Simmons
in whiplash Christoph Waltz and
inglorious basterds and Kathy Bates in
misery now don't be afraid I love you
the key factor is that these characters
aren't just dislikable they're overtly
villainous and in 2019 it didn't get
more evil than Joker before we continue
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notifications number one he's long
overdue
what keen Phoenix is undeniably among
the most talented actors of his
generation but like Leonardo DiCaprio
he's had bad luck with the Oscars I give
you facts he's been nominated for Best
Supporting Actor once and now including
Joker three times in the Best Actor
category DiCaprio finally got his moment
in the spotlight when he took home the
gold for his role in 2015's the revenant
and
while he's also a nominee this year it
seems clear that it's Phoenix's turned
quite frankly there are few roles he's
turned in over the last two decades that
aren't oscar-worthy
we know that the Academy doesn't vote
based on the cumulative value of
performances throughout an actor's
career but really it's time that Phoenix
be recognized by his peers
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