>> WELCOME BACK, AS EASY AND
CONVENIENT AS THE PACKAGES FROM
WALMART AND TARGET CAN BE, MANY
WHO NOT ONLY ENJOY SHOPPING THE
STREET, BUT THEY WANT TO SUPPORT
THE LOCAL STORE OWNERS IN THE
COMMUNITY AND THEY, TOO, FIND
THEMSELVES ON THE ROUGH AND
TUMBLE PART OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
AND WRITING EXTENSIVELY ABOUT
THIS AND JOINING ME TO TALK
ABOUT IT, JAY, GOOD TO HAVE YOU
ON.
THE CALCULUS WOULD SEEM OBVIOUS
HERE.
SMALL BUSINESSES HAVE A SMALLER
MARGIN EVER OF ERROR, SO ANY
SUPPLY HICCUPS, RIGHT?
>> YES, TO PACKAGE THAT AND WE
PRODUCED THAT EARLIER THIS WEEK,
TALKING WITH SOME OF THE SMALL
BUSINESS OWNERS THEY LET ME KNOW
AND I LEARNED A LOT ABOUT THE
SUPPLY CHAIN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS, AS YOU CAN
IMAGINE, BUT, YOU KNOW, BIGGER
COMPANIES HAVE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE SUPPLIERS
WHERE THEY WILL GET--
THEY WILL MAKE SURE TO GET
WALMART A SHIPMENT, YOU KNOW, ON
TIME BEFORE THEY GET, YOU KNOW,
MOM AND POP POP TOY SHOP THEIR
SHIPMENT.
SO THESE SMALLER BUSINESSES ARE
GETTING SO FEW SHIPMENTS EACH
YEAR, THE SUPPLIERS PUT THEIR
ORDERS ON THE BACK BURNER, IT
SEEMS.
>> THEY’RE NOT THE PRIORITY AND
SOME OF THESE THAT YOU’RE
WRITING ABOUT, IT’S NOT LIKE
THEY WERE TRYING TO ORDER IN
SEPTEMBER.
SOME OF THESE PEOPLE PLACED FOR
ORDERS THINGS BACK IN JANUARY,
YOU WOULD THINK--
SO ALMOST A YEAR IN ADVANCE OF
THE HOLIDAY SEASON AND THEY’RE
STILL UP A CREEK NOT GETTING THE
ORDERS.
>> YEAH, YOU KNOW, THAT WAS AN
ISSUE, PART OF IT, TOO, THEY
WERE--
THEY’RE IN CONTACT, YOU KNOW,
WITH THE LOGISTICS PEOPLE AND
THE SUPPLIERS, BUT ALL THEY CAN
DO AT THIS POINT, YOU KNOW, IS
JUST SAY, YOU KNOW, IT’S
SOMEWHERE.
IT’S COMING, WE JUST DON’T KNOW
WHEN AND THAT’S WHEN, YOU KNOW,
THE SMALL BUSINESSES GET IN
TROUBLE, PARTICULARLY THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND YOU ORDER SOMETHING
IN JANUARY AND DON’T GET IT
UNTIL NOVEMBER, THAT’S PROBABLY
A DECENT PART OF YOUR INVENTORY
AND YOU KNOW, THIS TIME OF YEAR,
A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE DEPENDING
ON, YOU KNOW, CUSTOMERS TO BE IN
THEIR SHOPS OVER THE NEXT MONTH
OR SO FOR A MAJORITY OF THEIR
ANNUAL REVENUES.
>> IN FACT, JAY, THAT’S ONE OF
THE INTERESTING THINGS HAPPENING
RIGHT NOW.
FOR ALL THE FEAR RIGHT NOW WE
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH
PRICES AND INFLATION.
THERE ARE STILL, THE EARLY
RETURNS ARE--
THAT WE’RE SEEING SO FAR, THE
EARLY INFORMATION ON THIS
SHOPPING SEASON IS EXTREMELY
ROBUST, AND SO, OF COURSE,
THESE--
AND A LOT OF THE SMALL BUSINESS
OWNERS THAT YOU TALK TO SEEM TO
BE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE
SEASON THAT THEY COULD HAVE IF
THEY COULD ANSWER THE DEMAND.
>> YEAH, THE ISSUE ISN’T, YOU
KNOW, THEY’RE NOT WORRIED ABOUT
HITTING PROJECTIONS OR, YOU
KNOW, HITTING SALES PROJECTIONS
OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT, IT’S
JUST, CAN WE GET THIS STUFF IN
IN TIME, YOU KNOW, TO WHERE WE
CAN GET IT OUT.
AND ONE BUSINESS I TALKED TO HAS
ADVENT CALENDARS FOR SALE AND
THOSE HAVE TO GO OUT BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK, YOU KNOW, BEFORE
DECEMBER 1ST, OBVIOUSLY, AND
THEY’RE DECEMBER 1ST AND
DECEMBER 24TH, AND YOU KNOW, IF
YOU DON’T GET THOSE OUT, YOU
CAN’T REALLY MARK THOSE DOWN.
I MEAN, THERE’S 25 PIECES OF
CHOCOLATE IN THERE, BUT YOU’RE
NOT MARKING THAT.
BUT YOU HAVE TO HAVE THAT, YOU
KNOW, BY A SPECIFIC TIME IN
ORDER TO GET IT OUT TO PEOPLE.
>> WE’LL ASSUME THE SALES OF
ADVENT CALENDARS DROP PRECIP
PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER CHRISTMAS.
AND STAFFING, A LOT OF FOLKS
HAVEN’T BEEN ABLE TO FIND THE
HELP THAT THEY NEED.
YOU DIDN’T SEE THAT AS A BIG A
PROBLEM, THEY’VE ADJUSTED.
>> THE ADJUSTMENTS THEY’VE MADE
OVER THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF.
A LOT OF SMALL BUSINESSES ARE
OFFERING MORE WAGES, YOU KNOW,
MORE COMPETITIVE WAGES.
THEY’RE ADJUSTING THEIR BENEFITS
PACKAGES AND THINGS LIKE THAT,
BUT AS FAR AS THE STAFFING
LEVELS THEY’VE BEEN, LIKE I
SAID, THAT HE HAVE BEEN MAKING
THE CHANGES FOR A YEAR AND A
HALF AND ADJUSTING HOURS, YOU
KNOW, ADJUSTING HOW THEY DO
THINGS WITH CURBSIDE PICKUP AND
YOU KNOW, ONLINE ORDERING, SO,
STAFFING AT THIS POINT IS WHAT
IT’S GOING TO BE, YOU KNOW, FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
>> THE OTHER THING, JAY, SO THEY
KNOW THAT THEY’RE UNDER HUGE
PRESSURE RIGHT NOW FROM THE BIG
BOXES AND FROM PEOPLE WHO STAY
AT HOME.
HOW MUCH OF THIS IS A SURVIVAL
MATTER FOR THE STORE OWNERS
GIVEN HOW MUCH BUSINESS THEY DO
DURING THE HOLIDAYS?
>> WELL, YOU THINK ABOUT A TOY
STORE, YOU KNOW, IN THE DOWNTOWN
THIS TIME OF YEAR IS WHERE THEY
GET THE MAJORITY OF THEIR
REVENUE AND PEOPLE COMING IN TO
BUY CHRISTMAS PRESENTS FOR THEIR
KIDS AND THEIR GRANDKIDS, SO,
YEAH, IF YOU CAN’T FIND THAT AT
YOUR LOCAL TOY STORE, YOU’RE
OBVIOUSLY GOING TO WALMART,
AMAZON AND THAT CREATES A HUGE
PROBLEM.