- [Narrator] This is the USS Louisiana.
It's one of the Navy's current 14 nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarines.
This is China's version, the Type 094.
It's one of the nation's six nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarines.
These submarines serve the same purpose.
They are a sort of insurance policy
in the event of a nuclear attack.
But to do its job, each of these submarines
has to do one thing really well: hide.
(light music)
We compare the Ohio class submarines' technical capabilities
and missiles with the Jin classes
to see which comes out on top,
and take a look at what each country has in store
for the future of these nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarines.
(fanfare music)
On June 9th, 1959, a decade into the Cold War,
the United States launched this submarine,
the USS George Washington.
It was the Navy's first nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarine.
These SSBNs are nuclear-powered,
carrying nuclear missiles,
and are one arm of the US military's nuclear triad,
which includes intercontinental ballistic missiles,
ballistic missile submarines,
and bombers.
And for the United States, SSBNs became a crucial part
of its nuclear triad because of their survivability.
That is, their ability to remain safe
from anti-submarine warfare,
and, if needed, launch missiles past enemy defenses.
In fact, SSBNs are the most survivable arm in the triad.
So in the 1980s, the first Ohio class
nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine entered service.
The Ohio class, still active today,
was the Navy's sixth generation of SSBNs.
18 submarines in this class were built
over the next 16 years,
though four were later converted
into cruise missile submarines.
As these Ohio class SSBNs were procured,
China was building its first ballistic missile submarine,
the Type 092, which became operational in 1983.
They only fielded one, but it marked a turning point
in China's nuclear capabilities.
A few decades later, in 2006,
satellite imagery spotted the next generation, the Type 094.
In its 2022 annual report,
the Department of Defense says
China has six operational Jin class submarines
running deterrence patrols.
But these Type 094s are much noisier than the 1970s era
Soviet nuclear submarines.
- And that would can safely say undermine
the overall survivability of the Chinese submarines,
and therefore undermines the overall credibility
of a sea-based nuclear deterrence.
- [Narrator] Dr. Tong Zhao has been researching
China's nuclear capabilities and strategic security issues
for about a decade.
The Ohio class submarines are capable of carrying
up to 24 missiles,
but to comply with the New START treaty
only 20 are allowed to be carried.
In contrast, the Jin class submarines
can only carry up to 12 missiles.
And like each submarine survivability,
the missiles they carry are also critical factors
in each military's strategy.
The Navy's SSBNs have held a variety of missiles.
Today, the Ohio class submarines carry this missile,
the Trident II.
It's 44-feet long, has an 83-inch diameter,
and weighs 130,000 pounds.
That's about the weight of five school buses.
Although the Trident II can carry up to eight warheads,
it likely carries only three or four
to comply with the New START treaty.
But most importantly, it has a range
of about 4,000 nautical miles.
And since 2017, the Navy has been updating these missiles
to extend their life and increase their range even more
to about 6,480 nautical miles.
The Department of Defense says
that China's Jin class submarines carry either the JL-2
or its next iteration, the JL-3.
The JL-2 has one warhead,
while the JL-3 has multiple.
The JL-2's range is estimated to be about
3,780 nautical miles,
and the JL-3's range reaches at least 5,400 nautical miles.
This means that from China's shores,
the JL-2 has sufficient range to target Guam or Alaska.
But the JL-3 might target the continental US
from areas near China's coast.
But, - Even if you put
a longer range missiles on the Jin class submarines,
it's still the Jin class submarines. (chuckles)
They're still as noisy as the old ones.
- [Narrator] Hans Kristensen has studied the status
of American nuclear weapons since the 1980s.
And since noisiness impacts an SSBNs survivability,
it makes it harder for China's submarines
to travel further from the shores without being detected.
- Even if you get longer range,
that range is not sufficient to cover
all of the continental United States,
unless you sail far into the Pacific.
- [Narrator] And that's also difficult
for China's submarines to do
because of US anti-submarine defenses
across the Pacific Ocean.
- A sea-based nuclear capabilities is one area
in which China still lags behind the United States
in a very significant manner.
China understands that eventually
nuclear submarine may be the most survivable part
of a country's nuclear arsenal.
So China had this long-term vision
to eventually acquire very advanced
nuclear submarine technologies.
- [Narrator] So what's China working on to close the gap?
China is expected to begin construction
on its next generation of SSBN, the Type 096,
in the first part of this decade.
These submarines will run with the existing Jin class ones,
and experts like Dr. Zhao say that the Type 096
will be quieter than its predecessor.
But the US is forging ahead, too.
Construction on the next generation of SSBNs
is already underway.
These Columbia class boomers will be even bigger
than their predecessors.
- This thing about the modernization cycle,
you know, they don't happen at the same time
in China and the United States.
So there's sometimes sort of a simplistic tendency
or a temptation in the debate
for nuclear advocates to say,
"See, they're modernizing, we're not.
Therefore, we're behind."
But now we have actually,
now we're entering our modernization cycle
and that will run for the next two to three decades.
- [Narrator] The Ohio class submarines
are reaching the end of their lifetime.
In just a few years, the first of its generation,
the USS Ohio, will retire.
By 2040 they are set to be replaced by Columbia class SSBNs.
The Navy is acquiring 12 new SSBNs
and each one will have room for 16 missiles,
eight less than the Ohio class could carry.
Cutting back might seem counterintuitive,
but the US military estimates no more are needed
to meet nuclear deterrence requirements.
And the US Navy says the Columbia class submarines
will be even quieter.
That's because they're being built
with an electric drive propulsion train
versus the traditional mechanical drive system.
So even if China's Type 096 is considerably quieter
than its predecessor,
it could be far less stealthy
than the US' upcoming Columbia class.
- So we may see some incremental improvements.
That doesn't mean that China will be
at the same technical level
with this American counterpart.
(light music)