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Finland is a country famous for having the highest concentration of heavy metal bands
per capita in the world.
No.
I didn't make this up.
Someone on the internet did a study with a map included.
But let's focus on today's topic.
Because as you can imagine, today we’re not talking about Finland because of metal.
In recent weeks, both Sweden and Finland have been all over the media for this reason.
N1(Sweden and Finland to formally submit Nato bids 'hand in hand' - The Guardian)
This is a blow to Russia.
Especially in the case of Finland.
In fact, if you don't mind, in this video we are going to focus more on Finland.
The question is, why is Russia bothered?
How important are Sweden and Finland to NATO?
At the end of the day, we are talking about two countries with small populations.
Sweden has just over 10 million people and Finland just over 5.5 million.
Why would it be such a tragedy for Russia if they joined NATO?
What problems might these two countries encounter along the way?
Can they really join NATO and what could Russia do to prevent it?
Today we are going to answer these questions but first, let's look at a bit of history.
1(HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF)
We could say that Ukraine is a case of deja vu for Finland.
These two countries have so many things in common that it seems like the same story with
different characters.
Like Ukraine, Finland was also part of the Russian Empire.
In 1917, they gained independence.
However, in 1939, Stalin decided to invade them.
Why, you may ask, what reasons did the Russians have to invade the poor Finns?
What was the Kremlin's narrative to justify the war against Finland?
Well, pay attention to this Soviet propaganda poster.
That's right!
It's just what it looks like: a Nazi who is carrying a little dog on a leash.
The little dog is an allegory for Finland.
In fact, I don't know if you can see the text well, but it says "the fascist's dog barks".
Exactly!
According to Stalin, Russia had to conquer Finland in order to...
Denazify it!
This is how the so-called winter war broke out.
A war that Russia hoped to win in a few weeks.
The Soviet Union outnumbered Finland on all fronts: they had more soldiers, better weapons
and more money.
However, the Finns put up resistance.
They knew the terrain much better and knew how to resist the cold much better than anyone
else.
Ever since then, Finland still has whole regiments of skiing soldiers.
It was in this war that legends such as SIMO HAYHA, better known as "The White Death",
were forged.
He was the deadliest sniper in history.
Racking up 505 confirmed kills.
After 100 days of war in the most extreme conditions you can imagine, Russia withdrew.
Many of you probably already know this story.
What is not often mentioned is that Finland did not win the war.
At least it was not a resounding victory.
Apart from the human cost and all the war damage, Finland had to pay $300 million to
Russia as reparations.
To give you an idea, that would be about $5.78 billion in today's dollars.
In addition, Russia got a couple of regions in northern Finland and a good part of Karelia.
So the question that many of you are probably asking is, was it worth it, was Finland right
to stand up to Russia, or perhaps it would have been better to surrender the war?
The answer could not be more emphatic: YES.
The data speaks for itself.
As of today, Finns enjoy a GDP per capita of $49,000.
In the Republic of Karelia it is less than $7170.
Life expectancy?
In Finland it is 81 years.
In Russia it is 73.
Inequality?
Finland is one of the most egalitarian countries in the world, with a Gini coefficient of 27.7.
Russia, on the other hand, is far more unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 35.3.
In other words: no matter which indicator we look at: Finland is among the higher rankings
and Russia among the lowest.
No doubt those poor Karelians on the border with Finland are wondering every day why their
ancestors did not get the border moved a little further to the East.
In fact, the Republic of Karelia is one of the regions with the least support for Putin's
party.
Although that matters little in Russian “democracy”.
In other words: there are few examples where a border makes such a big difference in the
lives of citizens.
But now the question you may all be wondering is...
Why is it so important for Finland (and Sweden) to join NATO?
What do they bring to the alliance?
Is it just a symbolic move or is there more to it?
We are going to look at that right now.
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2(YOU DIDN’T WANT NATO?
HERE, HAVE SOME NATO!)
Finland and Sweden are two of the most difficult countries in the world to invade.
They are two examples of what we could call "total security".
That is, the whole society is prepared for an invasion: from the military to civilians.
To give you an idea, Sweden has more than 65,000 wartime shelters.
In fact, in some Swedish regions it is mandatory for every house to have its own bunker.
In HELSINKI, the capital of Finland, there are more than 5,500 bunkers.
In addition, both Finland and Sweden have well-equipped armies that are perfectly adapted
to NATO requirements.
But there is something much more important than all that.
The great contribution of Finland and Sweden to NATO is...
Geography!
Take a look at this map.
Here you can see the Baltic Sea.
Finland, Sweden and Estonia control the entire Russian pathway to the Baltic from St. Petersburg.
Estonia is already a member of NATO.
If Finland joins, NATO could block the traffic of all Russian ships leaving St. Petersburg.
And you will say OK!
But Russia still has access to the Baltic – Kaliningrad!
But hold on a minute!
Because right in front of Kaliningrad is Sweden, which is also about to join NATO!
Sweden also has this island you see here: the island of Gotland.
Until months ago, this island was demilitarized.
But Sweden has now sent in troops.
And, from there, it can control this whole area of the Baltic Sea.
Russia wanted to avoid having NATO on its border.
Now it is going to be surrounded by NATO at the only point where they could access the
Atlantic.
If they want to put a submarine with nuclear warheads in service, for example, it is almost
impossible not to be detected by radar.
Remember that all NATO armies share information.
And I know what many of you are thinking, is the Baltic Sea really that important for
Russia?
Technically, they also have access to the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is also a tense one.
Look at this other map.
If you look, you will see that the only exit from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea
is...
The Bosphorus Strait, which is in Turkey!
And yes, Turkey is also a NATO member.
In other words: Russia could be about to lose control of all its access points to the sea.
At least on the Western front.
But not only that!
Take a look at this third map.
This ledge you see on the Russian side is the Kola Peninsula.
This is estimated to be the area with the most nuclear silos in the world.
This is where Russia is likely to have almost all of its nuclear warheads and aviation bases.
According to CaspianReport, all these military bases are connected by a single railroad line.
I’m not kidding!
That means that most of Russia's nuclear arsenal would be connected by a single rail line.
All it would take is one well-orchestrated attack and all the logistics lines feeding
this nuclear arsenal would collapse.
So far, none of this has been a problem for Russia.
The only ones who could possibly sabotage that railroad line would be the Finns.
But Finland was not in NATO and remained neutral.
All this is about to change.
So you can imagine what this means for Russia.
Side note: of course this does not mean that Russia would lose all its nuclear bombs.
But it is clear that it would be more difficult for Russia to draw on its entire nuclear arsenal.
In other words: Finland joining NATO is something Russia cannot afford to happen.
The question is what can they do to prevent it?
Right now we are going to see.
3(TOO LATE TO ACT)
How many times have you heard about "NATO expansion"?
According to Russian propaganda, NATO is like an oil slick taking over new countries.
As we are seeing in this case, it is not NATO that is expanding.
It is the countries that feel threatened by Russia that are seeking protection.
However, joining NATO is not an automatic process.
From the time a country applies for membership until it finally enters there is a period
where it is particularly weak.
Think about it: once Sweden and Finland join NATO, Russia would not be able to attack them.
It would be an attack against NATO as a whole.
However, until that happens, Russia could launch small attacks without NATO being forced
to respond.
That explains threats like this.
N2(Russia threatens 'military-technical' retaliation over Finland's NATO bid - Politico)
But what could Russia do?
In principle, they could launch cruise missiles at certain strategic sites in Finland.
They could destroy power plants, communication towers and collapse the whole economy.
Without NATO support, Finland would not be able to respond, or maybe it would?
Listen up.
N3(UK strikes new security agreement with Sweden and Finland - Reuters)
That’s right!
Boris Johnson has been quicker than NATO itself.
Before the other member countries decide whether to accept Finland and Sweden, the UK has already
pledged military cooperation.
That means that, if Moscow attacks, London responds.
And remember that the UK does have nuclear weapons, but not only that!
After the UK's move, other countries have followed suit.
Next came Poland, and then the United States.
The window of opportunity for Russia has already closed.
Although Finland and Sweden are not in NATO yet, they already have the support of two
nuclear powers.
Could Russia attack with economic measures?
Of course!
The Kremlin has already announced that it is cutting off all gas supplies to Finland.
And that is a problem.
But, from the military point of view, they have fewer and fewer options.
And that explains why, days after threatening so many reprisals, Moscow's discourse has
changed radically.
Listen up.
N4(Russia's Foreign Affairs Minister, Sergey Lavrov says Finland, Sweden joining NATO makes
'no big difference' - Inquirer)
That’s right!
It doesn't make a big difference.
And I know what you're thinking...
so, if Russia can't do anything...
it's only a matter of time before Finland joins NATO, right?
Is it possible for anything to go wrong?
We are going to look at that right now
4(NEGOTIATION TIME)
In principle, NATO has an open door policy.
In other words, Finland and Sweden could join without any problems.
The problem is that all member countries have to accept it.
Unanimously.
And which countries would want to veto the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO?
Well, mainly two: Hungary and Turkey.
Particularly Turkey.
Check it out.
N5(Turkey's Erdogan links Sweden, Finland NATO bid to return of 'terrorists' - Reuters)
Those of you who subscribe to our weekly bulletin already know about this: Turkey has been fighting
against the Kurdish minority for years.
Turkey has several Kurdish organizations on its list of terrorist groups.
However, both Sweden and Finland have given political asylum to members of these organizations.
Specifically, these two countries have refused to extradite 33 individuals.
According to Turkey, this implies collaboration with terrorists.
And they are not willing to accept the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO until they
collaborate in their fight against the Kurds.
But we are not only talking about Kurds!
According to Erdogan, the followers of Fetullah Gullen are also included in the list of terrorist
groups.
If you remember, Fetullah Gullen is one of Erdogan's political enemies and one of the
main alleged instigators of the 2016 coup.
The question is...
Is this really the only reason?
Well, most probably not.
We have told you several times on VisualPolitik: Turkey is the bad boy of NATO.
And that means that the United States has vetoed them from buying many weapons.
For example, Turkey cannot buy F-35s.
However, they can now use their veto power to renegotiate.
And, so far, it's paying off.
Check it out.
N6(Turkey confirms UK lifted embargo on defense exports - Daily Sabah)
So that's it, you’ll say!
NATO will go back to selling arms to Turkey as if nothing had happened.
In return, Turkey will accept Sweden and Finland...
Issue resolved, right?
Well, it's not that simple!
Once again, Turkey is NATO's problem child.
Why?
Well, among many other things, because of its eternal animosity towards another NATO
member: Greece.
It is very likely that Greece will not be very happy if its main antagonist once again
has access to the United States's state-of-the-art military arsenal.
To what extent could Hungary veto this new NATO expansion?
Will it really be possible to resolve all these differences?
One thing is clear: except for Turkey and Hungary, it seems that all other members are
more than ready to accept new members.
The question is, how are they going to convince Hungary and Turkey?
Are Sweden and Finland really going to end up joining NATO?
Is there any way Russia could prevent it?
Will we see a massive propaganda campaign to try to convince Europeans that Finland
and Sweden are Nazi-dominated countries?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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