Hello, my name is Ben Lovegrove and in this video I'm going to examine the myth and reality
behind the much reported global pilot shortage.
In 2015 Boeing predicted that the global aviation industry would need over 600,000 pilots in
the years ahead.
Boeing have revised their initial estimates and the results were published in the 2016
Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook.
The prospects for aviation are both exciting and alarming.
There is buoyant growth in the industry.
Cleaner, quieter, more efficient aircraft are being designed and produced.
Demand for both passenger and cargo traffic is increasing.
For every air crew there is also a requirement for a proportional number of cabin crew.
For every aircraft in the air there is a need for aircraft engineers to maintain the fleet.
So the combined total is estimated to be two million new commercial airline pilots, maintenance
technicians, and cabin crew between now and 2035.
This figure can be broken down into 617,000 new commercial airline pilots, 679,000 new
maintenance technicians, and 814,000 new cabin crew.
Although this sounds like an alarming amount it’s a figure for the global aviation industry
over 20 years.
For example, they estimated that Europe would need about 5,000 new commercial pilots per
year by 2035.
This would mean that European airlines alone would need about 95,000 new commercial pilots
between 2015 and 2035.
The financial crash of 2008 and the subsequent stagnation in the industry combined with increased
retirement age meant that many pilots kept flying but with no pay increases.
For some the only way to keep flying was to accept a pay cut.
However, the number of commercial licenses being issued in Europe is falling.
This of course means that there will not be enough pilots to replace those who do eventually
retire.
And it also means there is likely to be shortage now that the airline industry is expanding
again.
The Effects of the Pilot Shortage.
Already the shortage of pilots is having an impact.
In Australia regional airlines are cancelling both flights and entire routes because there
aren't enough pilots the fly the aircraft.
India's GoAir is considering leasing out some of its new Airbus A320neo's because it doesn't
have type rated pilots for them.
In America, the number of commercial pilots has decreased by 30% over the past thirty
years.
Smaller, regional airlines are losing pilots to the larger companies who offer higher salaries.
The Canadian Council for Aviation and Aerospace predicts that the industry will need 7,300
additional pilots by 2025.
Smaller airlines and bush pilots in the north of Canada are losing pilots to larger airlines,
and not enough new pilots are coming on stream.
And the effects of the pilot shortage are being felt more keenly in the Middle East
and Asia.
Opportunities for New Pilots.
While this may seem like a golden opportunity for would-be airline pilots it's worth remembering
that these airlines are seeking junior pilots with experience.
A fresh frozen ATPL is no guarantee of employment even in a time of demand for pilots.
Some pilots will still need to gain experience with smaller, regional airlines at first.
As the larger airlines poach pilots from the smaller carriers, opportunities are likely
to appear.
On the other hand, some will be able to take advantage of recruitment drives by the larger
airlines.
These may include some training sponsorship programs.
Airlines are also drawing experienced pilots out of flight schools.
This is creating a shortage of Flying Instructors.
So there is also an increasing demand for Flying Instructors and Chief Flying Instructors.
In conclusion, yes, there are lots of opportunities for pilots, cabin crew, and engineers.
However, much will depend on where you live.
You may need to live abroad at first in order to catch the wave.
One thing seems certain though, now is an excellent time to learn to fly.
Check out my other videos on this subject.
You'll find several aviation related playlists in my channel.
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www.redspan.com.
There you will find examples of video adverts and infomercials created for aviation businesses.
You'll also find testimonials from satisfied clients.
Thanks for watching.
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