the un is warning that a full-scale
humanitarian crisis
is unfolding in ethiopia where a
two-week conflict
in tigrai is threatening to descend into
civil war
up to 30 000 people have fled a
government offensive
by ethiopian forces against tigris
powerful local leaders the tplf
hundreds have died in the fighting the
government has rejected calls for
mediation and had this message earlier
it's ringleaders they would endeavor in
space they wouldn't
they wouldn't hesitate to strike anybody
around
so that they can create havoc and
historia in
ethiopia and that would result in civil
war so that's why the government had
tries to destroy
there are moments which have been
discovered and now we keep on destroying
as we go along well it's almost
impossible to verify any information
from tigre virtually all communications
are blocked
these are the latest pictures we have
from the region this was broadcast on
state media
it's said to show celebrations by
federal troops arriving into the town
of raya alamata the onslaught continues
early prime minister abi ahmed warned
that a three-day deadline for local
forces to surrender has now lapsed
he posted this message on facebook
threatening final enforcement action
in the coming days in the past few hours
he said his troops
are marching on the regional capital
mekele which is held by the tplf
and he's claiming significant victories
five million people live in tigrai and
age agencies warn
they're unable to reach those who need
help because of the deteriorating
security situation here's the unhcr's
assessment of what it's hearing about
the situation in tigre
we're needing desperately to have access
unhindered
unconditional access to the refugees but
also the other six hundred thousand
among the population of ethiopians who
depend on a humanitarian assistance
we have had no responses so far we also
need
access to bring in supplies fuel
very little food in the market cash is
non-existent because the banks have been
closed for weeks now
and so it's really a dire humanitarian
situation that we're facing
that we haven't seen for over two
decades in this part of the country
well this is playing out across
ethiopia's border the un estimates 4
000 refugees are crossing into suzanne
every day and we're told
half of them are children this border
crossing is now
overwhelmed we're told many arriving
here are hungry and exhausted from the
heat conditions are very poor there's no
electricity
or clean water and this is the omrakoba
camp which once housed refugees during
ethiopia's famine
in the 80s it's been closed since the
2000s
but it's now reopened to cope with the
influx here's another unhcr spokesperson
dana hughes assessing the situation in
sudan
because this is an area that hasn't seen
displacement
as i said in in in well over a decade
almost two
this is an area where we had a reception
center for about
300 people and now it's trying to
you know keep track of at least and help
about 15 000 people with more people
coming
we have taken immediate steps working
with the sudanese government
to try and and provide assistance we've
identified a site
about 80 kilometers away from the border
that we are trying to at least set up a
settlement or a camp someplace where
people can go
so we can give them immediate assistance
well the refugees from tigrai
are also reporting horrific accounts of
the violence in the region including
street shootings and machete killings
here's dana hughes again
i think that this happened so quickly
that you know the refugees that we're
talking to
they're stunned there's a woman that we
interviewed and she talked about how
less than a week ago her life was fairly
normal
and for five days she's been searching
for her husband
she had to grab her children and people
just ran they ran
with really nothing more than what was
on their backs
so i i think at this point what people
are hoping for
is peace and and to be safe and to be
secure
well beverly ching is our sub-saharan
security analyst
in nairobi beverly how reliable is the
information
we're guessing from tigram what more do
we know about what's going on there
well the latest appears to be that
ethiopian forces have been able to make
victories in eastern and western tigre
and are advancing towards mercury
yesterday diplomatic sources said that
there had been bombings in the capital
immaculate but then ethiopia has denied
this in another statement
and said that it is making precision
strikes and there have been no civilian
casualties
but we can see thousands of people have
fleeing the conflict and the kind of
stories coming out
from u.n agencies and even those
arriving in sudan
are quite terrifying ethiopia on its
part seems to be very
keen to control the narrative of the
conflict it started a new twitter
account which issues daily updates
it's called state of emergency fact but
it's difficult to corroborate or
independently verify that information
integra officials have made use of the
state tvs to issue statements
not so much updates from the front line
but from rhetoric on the potential
impact of the crisis both for ethiopia
and the region
and also to issue threats so it doesn't
seem as though there will be anything
that will either focus on the
humanitarian
aspects of it or it will just cover that
up and most of what we're seeing is just
a strong building
towards a more spiraling conflict and
what defense capabilities beverly does
this local force the tplf have how
strong are they
so the northern command which sparked
off the conflict after the tplf attacked
it is said to be one of the most well
equipped of course there's very little
clarity on what is there
but it makes sense because the tplf had
been the governing force
for many years nearly 27 years but then
epa left strategy is probably more of
concern
it's creating what seems to be a long
drawn-out conflict
when prime minister abby announced the
operation he said that there would be
limited
aims but then the tplf forces managed to
fire into asmara
over the weekend they also fired into
the amhara region
which shows the potential of it brewing
into a bigger conflict and drawing in
many actors
other more eplf leaders are very
experienced in warfare when you think
about
the eritrea ethiopia border walk in 1998
to 2000
or even the 1970s fighting against the
dirk and be being able to coordinate
that kind of power so it is
quite a strategic and experienced threat
beverly stay with us uh for the moment
uh but this of course hasn't come
out of the blue tensions have been
building for years between the federal
government
and the tigray people's liberation front
which runs tigray
that came to a head back in september
when the government postponed
national elections the tplf defied the
ban it held a vote anyway that was
declared
illegal now the tplf sees the federal
government as illegitimate
accusing prime minister abby ahmed of
trying to extend his time in office and
that's a charge mr abi denies
here's the analysis of kalkidan yeah in
addis ababa
on what support he has in the initial
phase of his
his tenure he seemed to enjoy wide
popularity
but that appeared to have dwindled now
and since uh since this conflict broke
out
to be enjoying uh some popular support
at least for the military invasive
uh for example in the capital earlier
today uh there there were
uh calls by his administration to show
support for the
defense forces for the army forces and
uh there was a lot of
uh the clapping and and and then
shouting and screaming and singing
uh people were expressing their uh their
support
well last year the prime minister abi
hamid was celebrated
worldwide when he won the nobel peace
prize when he accepted the award he
called war the epitome of hell
the financial times tells us how this is
playing out now the declaration of
hostilities is likely to further
undermine if not destroy his fading
reputation as a leader who can unite
ethiopia
under the banner of liberal democracy
let's go back to beverly
beverly what a difference a year makes
well yeah that's certainly true i mean
it seems as though his credentials are
severely eroding and over the period
where he's had tensions with the tplf
there's been very strong rhetoric coming
from him and right now he has rejected
any calls for talks and many people
expected that he would perhaps pave the
way for talks
he seemed like a reformers when he came
into power but i suppose
many of the changes that he was
implementing including to the political
system and
postponing the election it raised a lot
of political tensions
and in some ways this conflict was a
giving in to the kind of rhetoric that
was brewing
over all these months and perhaps a bit
of a letdown for many who felt that he
was
going to be a change maker beverly thank
you very much
beverly ching there from nairobi
describing the situation that is going
on right now
in ethiopia