what comes next after america first
four years of donald trump have left
their mark on the international trading
order
torn up deals trade wars tit-for-tat
tariffs
and it's hardly been a resounding
success take the trade war with china
washington slapped tariffs on billions
of dollars worth of chinese products
but record amounts are still being spent
on them while american exports have only
slightly improved
china's global trade surplus still
skyrocketed to over 75 billion dollars
exports to the us are still growing a
winner-take-all approach that divided
the world into the united states
and everyone else has made a lot of
losers
but all that's over now the end of
trump's time marks the start of a golden
age
in cross-border economic relations well
maybe not quite and we'll tell you why
but first let's hear from the man of the
next four years
joe biden here's what he had to say
about international trade
we make up 25 percent of the world's
trading capacity of the economy the
world
we need to be aligned with the other
democracies
another 25 percent or more so that we
can set the rules of the road
instead of having china and others
dictate
outcomes i want you to know that there
are three things going to happen
if i'm elected one we're going to invest
in american workers and make them more
competitive
number two we're going to make sure that
labor
is at the table and environmentalists
are at the table
and any trade deals we make and i'm not
looking for punitive traits
the idea that we are poking our finger
in the eyes of our friends
and embracing autocrats makes no sense
to me
so here are the trade related takeaways
biden wants to strengthen manufacturing
and return
to a more cooperative trading
relationship with democratic allies like
the eu
so they can band together and keep china
in check while using trade to further
the cause
of environmental protection and workers
rights sounds great
as to-do lists go but here's the thing
with talking about trade
it's never just about trade as in the
transfer of goods and services between
markets
there are always complex geopolitical
issues in the mix
but let's not get lost we're going to
take it step by step
and get some expert help but first let's
look at why traditional allies
that you and the u.s have found
themselves at odds in the first place
as early as his first election campaign
in 2016
donald trump has called the eu unfair
citing the trade deficit
at the start of his presidency the
amount of goods the eu
sold to the u.s was worth about 147
billion dollars more than the goods the
u.s sold to the eu
to punish the eu for perceived trade
abuses
washington slapped the bloc with steel
and aluminum tariffs in 2018
and here's a related accusation that the
high share of eu exports destroys
american jobs trump singled out german
car makers in particular
that's even though german automakers
have long since stopped exporting their
cars from europe and instead produced
them locally
employing thousands of american workers
despite repeated threats
car tariffs never did materialize but
the tariffs that did
didn't accomplish much
and while trump's tariffs haven't really
done much to shift the balance of trade
between the eu and the us
there's obviously been damage done to
the quality of the transatlantic
relationship
i mean remember this moment from 2017
awkward does not even begin to describe
that
and that never would have happened under
former president barack obama
arguably it won't happen under biden
either
and that experts concur is a good thing
i think there will be a lot more
um you know mending of relationships
with previous allies such as the
european union
but also um multilateral approaches um
for common problems at the wto level the
world trade organization
so overall a much more consistent a more
predictable
presidency in terms of trade and
engagement
so are we going to start seeing a
trading relationship coming out of the
u.s
let's say a trading relationship with
the eu that's
still adversarial but more polite is
that is that what we're going to see
um you phrased it really nicely i think
it is a little more than that
i don't think that we're going to be
restricted to
just rhetoric here or a change in tone
i do think there are substantive things
that
we can change okay so at the very least
the tone is going to change under biden
which is a start but it's also important
to realize
that transatlantic trade tensions did
not start with donald trump
in fact the eu and the u.s have the
longest running trade dispute in the
world
the boeing airbus aviation subsidies
dispute has been going on for 16 years
the european union and the united states
claim that each other's airplane
manufacturer
is unfairly subsidized by the government
therefore skewing competition
in fact the first big move in trade
policy after biden's election win was
announced
was a further escalation of this
conflict on november 9
the eu moved to start imposing tariffs
on u.s imports worth 4 billion
the target list includes airplanes wine
spirits frozen fish tractors suitcases
and produce
from onions to cherries settling this
issue can help enable the post-trump
reset the transatlantic alliance needs
and experts say that after years of
being undermined by a u.s government
skeptical of multilateralism
reforming the world trade organization
is going to be vital to recharging
rules-based trade among nations
especially if they want to stand
together to keep another economic
superpower in line
the big unknown is his china strategy
because if he is willing to
face the challenge head on that means
being able to say
maybe the multilateral trading system is
going to look quite different from
what it used to right it may mean that
we will have deep integration
amongst like-minded allies but it will
not be this universal membership system
if china plays by the rules then china
is welcome
but the rules will be set and they will
be enforceable
right because we don't know what his
china strategy is going to be
we can't really say whether he will be
able to go far
enough in getting that reform that is
much needed
now how to deal with china is a shared
question for both the eu
and the us they both want to be present
in the chinese market because it's huge
but they also want to get china to play
by the rules
that means respecting intellectual
property and having the same conditions
for european and american companies in
china
as the other way around and they don't
want china to have
unchallenged technological dominance in
the world they just haven't figured out
how to achieve those aims yet
together or separately but at a time
where multilateralism has supposedly
floundered
china has since become a signatory to
the world's largest free trade pact
the regional comprehensive economic
partnership involves 15 countries making
up close to 30 percent of world trade
the deal cuts as much as 90 percent of
the tariffs on imports between its
members within 20 years of coming into
effect
now it's worth noting that the rcep was
first proposed in 2011 and that's quite
a long time before the u.s china trade
war
even started so it's not as if one
precipitated the other
but the u.s and the eu should sit up and
take note anyway
our sap might not mean as much
economically
right now but it means that these
countries
have agreed on a joint economic venture
it is a forum it's a building block that
these countries
can and will build on right so it's kind
of
it's it's it's a stepping stone if you
will
and that is kind of the part that
should worry the eu and that should
worry the united states
there's nothing in there about labor
rights uh
environmental standards it's much more
transactional and it's far from being
completed there's still a lot of
work that needs to be done but it
you know it shows uh certainly
that the transatlantic community has not
yet come up with a way to present itself
as a feasible alternative to
countries in asia in the way that china
has done now
in case you haven't been paying
attention here it is again
the eu and the u.s have a host of issues
to deal with
before they can repair and eventually
strengthen the relationship
so that they can counter the outsize
ambitions of china
which among other ways has cemented its
international influence
by signing a sweeping free trade deal
with its neighbors and beyond
i mean that's manageable but it is also
of course a special time joe biden is
gonna is inheriting a
very uh you know dramatic
economic situation domestically he is
therefore because of the pandemic
going to be first and foremost a
domestic oriented president
those who really hope that the biden
administration
is going to usher in a new era of closer
transatlantic trade relations i think
they're going to have to be patient for
the first couple of years
so for now it looks like america first
will be followed by
america first for now but its allies
have come
knocking already anyway hoping at the
very least
for america and friends sooner rather
than later
sooner because while a golden age is
hardly to be found in the time of a
pandemic
there is a golden opportunity not to
return to the system before donald trump
but to make it better
he won't make trade great again alone
with allies help
it can be greater than it was
you