thank you.
Amna: The covid pandemic had
impacts both big and small.
One unexpected effect -- a small
baby boom.
It's the first major reversal in
declining U.S. Fertility rates
since 2007.
Special correspondent and
"Washington post" columnist
Catherine rampell reports on the
surprise pandemic baby bump.
>> ♪♪ You are my sunshine
my only sunshine ♪♪
reporter: If this woman sounds
professional when signing to her
daughter, that's because she is.
A few short years ago, she was
performing in front of a bigger
audience with Broadway
aspirations.
>> It was like ok, this is my
year, I had had shots, a great
meeting with my agent, I'm going
to go for it, get this dream job
and then the pandemic hit.
Reporter: And her career was put
on pause.
>> My agent said I'm going to be
real, theater is probably closed
for at least a year.
If I were you, I would think
about what else you want to be
doing during this time.
We looked at each other and I
said well, we have another nine
months, so should we have a
baby, is this the time?
It's never been right because I
did not want to stop
auditioning.
Catherine: This trend extends
well off-broadway.
She is part of the pandemic baby
boom.
Even in my own social circle,
seemingly everyone had a baby
these last two years.
This was unexpected.
For many years, birthrates have
been trending downwards, but
especially when the economy was
weak.
>> And all of the recessions in
recent history, birth rates have
gone down pretty dramatically as
the economy has contracted.
People delayed having children.
What's so interesting about the
pandemic recession is birth
rates went on to rise.
It is not a big increase, a lot
of people say this is a blip and
that is true, but what is
surprising is instead of seeing
a massive decline, we've seen a
slight increase, which surprised
all of us.
Catherine: Possible reasons?
Stimulus checks and government
help made this recession less
painful.
Priorities change.
>> I got pregnant on the iu
daily -- iud.
I think under normal
circumstances we would have
taken it differently.
Catherine: This couple had not
been dating long but it was an
intense period since they were
stuck at home.
>> Our value started to change.
Even though we were dating,
before if we were going to go
out to a bar and drink, now we
were spending nights at home
cooking.
>> Without covid, we probably
would have done a lot more --
>> Taken the long route.
>> Yeah.
Catherine: Suddenly they were on
the fast track.
>> I asked, what if I am
pregnant, do you want to keep
the baby?
He said maybe not.
I woke up, it was a Friday,
tested, and it was positive.
I was like uh-oh.
>> You also had to immediately
go to your doctor.
>> Yeah, because I had an iud
and it was going to be tricky.
I was exhausted from the day and
I took a nap on the couch and I
woke up to him quietly crying on
the couch with a smile on his
face.
He looks at me and says, I'm
going to be a dad.
[Laughter]
So that was sweet.
Catherine: And along came there
baby.
One factor that made the idea of
becoming parents less daunting?
Their work lives had changed.
>> Before covid I was traveling
a lot and that went to zero.
>> I was teaching.
You're getting up to get there
before the kids, staying up for
the kids and it doesn't leave a
lot of room to do much else.
>> You would just come home and
go to sleep, right?
When you are teaching in the
classroom.
Then all of a sudden the next
day you could get up and wear
sweatpants.
Catherine: When schools returned
to in person instruction, Amy
decided to become a consultant
so she could continue working
remotely.
>> Social -- to still have that
aspect of me that likes to work
and wants to have a career but
also be able to balance my
family.
Catherine: The broader shift to
remote work might help partly
explained that national baby
bump.
>> A lot of people are working
from home, especially more
educated women, and we thought
this may have played a role in
their ability to both have
children and maintain their busy
work lives.
Catherine: Women with college
degrees are more likely to be in
white collar careers that can go
remote.
>> There is a big educational
divide.
Women with more education or the
ones having a lot more children.
Exceeding trends and increasing
birthrates.
Women with less than a college
education, not only saw
birthrates go down, but they
barely covered to trend by the
end of 2021.
Catherine: The uptick was more
pronounced for first-time
parents.
Those who already had kids had a
lot to deal with.
>> The closure of childcare and
schools, remote schooling for
their kids, those things were
tricky and it was not the right
time to expand your family.
On the other hand, a lot of
people without children did not
have the same constraints.
Catherine: People already
trapped at home with a toddler
or kindergartner or two, they
said no mas.
Newfound work flux ability is a
key reason why Callie became a
mom.
>> Before the pandemic we had
been long distance and trying to
figure how to get in the same
city and we were both able to
work from home.
That allowed us to be in the
same place.
Catherine: Before Isaac was
born, Callie had been living in
Seattle for work and then moved
back east.
In the span of a year, she and
her partner got married, bought
a house and started their
family.
>> I think the pandemic
accelerated everything by like
five years for us.
We were both really focused on
our careers.
We were in a very different life
stage before.
Catherine: She eventually
transferred to an office closer
to her now husband and has
continued working remotely for
now.
>> They are requiring us to
return four days a week so I
will be going back into an
Catherine: And Callie isn't
alone.
>> We are in a transition period
and we don't know what companies
or firms will be saying even a
year from now.
Catherine: Birthrates are key to
what happens to the labor market
and broader economy.
>> If every woman is having a
little more than two kids on
average, our native population
stays constant.
We are down for a total
fertility rate, the expected
number of kids a woman will have
in her lifetime is closer to
1.6.
That is substantially low for a
placement rate.
It matters because absent a
large increase in immigration,
it means in the not-too-distant
future, our working age
population is going to shrink.
Catherine: Among other things,
fewer people working means fewer
people paying taxes to support
retirement programs.
>> If our fertility remains at
1.66 as opposed to 2.1, that
means social security benefits
are going to have to be cut by
more or payroll taxes are going
to have to increase by more than
current projections would say.
>> ♪♪ If you're happy and you
know it, clap your hands ♪♪
Catherine: To us, these may look
like cute toddlers.
But two economists, they are
critical future workers.
>> ♪♪ If you're happy and you
know it ♪♪
Catherine: And that's a reason
to celebrate.
For the pbs newshour, I am
Catherine rampell.