If you listen to the media, the world is currently in a pitched battle for
control between rival superpowers - the United States and China. Is the
United States on the decline? Is it truly going to be a “Chinese Century” as China
reaches the same level as the United States and potentially surpasses it?
The tale of the tape is very different - and surprisingly,
China may not be a superpower at all!
In some ways, China and the United States do match up pretty competitively. China has
a much larger population than the United States - almost four times as much. They control a similar
amount of land, allowing both to dominate their continent. Both have significant holdings abroad
in financial investments, but the US has a global military while China has only one major foreign
military outpost in Djibouti. In terms of military strength, China is the only country that is seen
as a near-peer to the United States. They both have modern intercontinental, ballistic missiles,
and nuclear weapons. While America has a much larger nuclear arsenal than China,
China’s still retains the ability to strike the US homeland and unlike Russia’s massive
cold-war era arsenal these missiles are modern and known to be working.
But the definition of a superpower is a specific thing - and China is not there yet.
The term Superpower was first created in 1944 during the Second World War, and it referred
to a state that was dominant and powerful enough to exert influence and project power across the
world. When it was first coined, it referred to three countries with massive empires or puppet
states around the world - the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union. Not only
are these states powerful enough to have an impact around the world, but no international action can
really be taken without consulting the superpowers first. This made them largely invincible.
They only had one weakness, time.
The trio of superpowers wouldn’t stay that way for long. The United Kingdom saw its mighty
empire - which spanned the world at its peak - collapse in the decades after World War II.
While the UK is still a powerful nuclear-armed nation, it doesn’t have nearly as much power
on the world stage as it used to. For a while, the US and USSR were about as close to global
equals as you could get- until the USSR saw its Communist government fall and many of
the countries it had conquered split off from its sphere of influence. Its current leader,
Vladimir Putin, has no problem acting like Russia is still a superpower - but he learned a harsh
lesson when his invasion of Ukraine grinded down to a halt while the rest of the world threw their
money and support towards Ukraine. Russia also found itself under sanctions and cut off from
much of the global economy - showing that today’s Russia is nowhere near as influential as the USSR.
And that leaves the United States standing alone the world superpower right?
Many have talked about the decline of the US on the world stage with recent events not helping
inspire confidence that the state will remain in the number 1 spot. But is that actually impacting
its global prestige and influence? Not really. After all, it’s still a key member of NATO,
a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and by far the largest economy in the world. Its
military spending is the highest in the world, and its military is state-of-the-art and only
getting stronger. If anything, the fear over the United States’ seeming instability might
be because people see it as an indispensable global cop. Who knows what would happen if its
leadership fell into wrong hands or the country became involved in another bloody civil war.
And it’s not clear if there would be anyone to pick up the slack.
China’s rise has gained a lot of attention recently,
as the Asian nation established itself as a dominant regional power and started making
moves outside of Asia. It continues to claim Taiwan as part of its territory,
but hasn’t made direct moves against the island nation. Its artificial islands in the South China
Sea have caused conflict with neighbors like Vietnam - and most of the times, China wins
these standoffs due to no one else in the region having the military might to challenge its navy.
And further away, China’s powerful economic sector
means it has extensive leverage over other countries - potentially cutting
them off from essential supplies if they cross it. And their heavy investments in
Africa means that the continent could become a staunch ally in the future.
All this put together makes China look like
a superpower on the rise - but looks can be deceiving.
During the early part of the 21st century, China’s rise was the talk of the world, and they certainly
acted like they were expanding fast. But since then, a lot of factors have converged to stop
the country’s rise in its tracks. The first and potentially the biggest is a growing population
time bomb. While China is still currently the largest country in the world by population,
it’s expected to lose that title as early as 2023 to India - largely due to China’s very low
birthrate. This is partially due to China’s extended one-child policy, which lasted for
decades and led to many couples having only one boy. That left China with a massive gender gap,
and many young Chinese men were left without wives - nicknamed “Bare branches” by the media.
While the policy has since been rescinded, old habits die hard and it’s rare to see Chinese
families have many kids. And as the population ages, that could cause long-term problems.
It’s not the only ticking time-bomb for China’s future.
China’s rise has largely been caused by its economic expansion, something that became possible
when the Chinese Communist Party ended its strict allegiance to Marxism and shifted to a state-run
capitalist economy. The country has managed to pick up a lot of the world’s manufacturing,
particularly of technology, and that has given it a lot of sway. But people are becoming
increasingly hesitant to invest in China due to how their products are made - often by prisoners
with little to no safety protections. As the internet made it easier for news to
spread around the world in an instant, it became harder and harder for China to keep its secrets.
And that means China could see its ace in the hole become a pair of twos.
Many companies have moved their manufacturing efforts to other countries, with India, South
Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan all becoming major hubs in recent decades. This is particularly the case
for Taiwan, which now controls the majority of the world’s semiconductor production - and
those little devices are key to making just about every modern computerized device run.
This may be a big part of the reason China is interested in conquering Taiwan - but unless
it pulls it off in a hurry, the odds are the rest of the world will rush to defend Taiwan.
Which leads to the other big question - could China actually win such a war?
China makes a big show of its military strength, frequently conducting war games off Taiwan and
placing its ships in neutral waters. But it primarily projects military strength right now in
one way - intimidation. Its ships are modern and powerful, but China’s huge military hasn’t been
fully tested in combat in decades. As one of only a few nuclear powers in Asia and the one with the
largest arsenal, it’s the biggest bully in the local playground - but is it the biggest bully
in town? The answer is probably not, as the United States largely outclasses it in military strength.
China might be able to win most local conflicts, but if the United States gets drawn into the fray,
China’s choices would likely be to back off or threaten to use their nukes.
And that paints a pretty clear picture of who the current superpower is.
Of course, China’s biggest challenges to its potential superpower status may come from within,
not from its rivals. China has frequently been mentioned as a potential second superpower,
but as the country modernizes, it might actually be less likely to be a superpower. That’s because
China’s population is increasingly educated and politically active - and they realize that they
live in a country where they haven’t had any real say in how the government is run for over seventy
years. In the past, protests against the CCP have been put down rather brutally - but the
country hasn’t seen anything like the massive protests against the Covid-19 lockdowns in its
history. These organised protests have become too much even for the usually tough CCP.
And that disease may be China’s downfall.
When Covid-19 first appeared on the scene and turned the world upside-down, China acted fast
- locking down its cities where the virus appeared and keeping them locked down until cases died
down. But while in many countries, a lockdown just meant restaurants were closed and there were lines
outside every grocery store, in China, they locked down and meant it. It was illegal to leave your
home in many places, with lockdowns extending for weeks and even months. The initial lockdowns were
deemed a success - and when the virus returned, so did the lockdowns. Even two and a half years into
the pandemic, major cities were being locked down under the same stringent rules as 2020.
And the people had enough.
Currently, the Chinese Communist Party faces the stiffest challenge to its rule it’s ever seen,
with mass numbers of young protestors showing up, waving blank papers to represent the way
the country is silencing them - and to ensure they can’t be prosecuted for seditious slogans.
The lockdowns have also caused a massive decrease in tourism and investment in China,
as outsiders are hesitant to visit when they don’t know when it could
become impossible to leave for several months due to an outbreak. After all,
staying in Shanghai Disneyland sounds like fun - until you can’t leave and
you’re shuffled to the on-site quarantine camp. Be careful what you wish for, kids!
All this has made several past predictions look rather silly.
For much of the 21st century, experts were arguing that China’s rise was unstoppable
and that the country might even surpass the US to become the world’s largest economy
and most powerful military. Even in the United States, military analysts observed that China’s
dominance over the Indo-Pacific has led them to become a superpower. China certainly views
itself as one in the way it projects power in the region - but its only influence outside of
its own sphere is only created through economic deals, and if those slow down, China will find
itself confined to be a regional power - in an area with a lot of fast-rising rivals.
Is the high ride really over for China?
As far back as ten years ago, some analysts were saying they believed China would never become
a superpower. They pointed to a lot of factors, including China’s aging population and increasing
dissatisfaction with their government. And they identified one other major problem - China’s
fast industrialization has left it one of the most polluted countries in the world,
with several major cities having hazardous air quality. That could impact the quality of life
for its residents as they get older - and combined with the low birth-rate,
could mean China would see a massive decrease in its working-age population within a few decades.
Another factor is China’s dependence on the global economy.
While China has a strong economy based on manufacturing, it needs customers to keep that
going - and countries are increasingly hesitant to do business in China. This is due to Covid
policies, ethics issues, and the history of China arresting foreign businessmen and journalists. If
the bottom falls out of China’s trade deals, the country could find itself dealing with a
shortage of energy and raw materials - which could cause greater instability in the country
and more protests that could eventually put an end to the Chinese Communist Party’s rule.
And it might all come back to one big question - do people want to move to China?
Despite all the people yelling “They took’r jerbs!”, immigrants are essential
to a country’s welfare. This is partially due to needing a workforce if the domestic supply
of workers isn’t enough to replace those leaving the workforce, but it’s also the equivalent of a
high-powered sports draft. If a genius immigrates to your country and sets up a new business there,
it could be a multi-billion dollar boon. Chinese-American professor Amy Chua argued that
China will have a problem attracting immigrants in the future, due to other countries having greater
incentives. The country’s authoritarian tactics and uncertain future might be other roadblocks.
And the worst part is, few of these factors are likely to change.
For China to become a superpower, it would need to keep building on its success - but
the opposite is actually likely to happen. All of China’s major problems are like a ball rolling
downhill. The “population bomb” they’re facing is a demographic issue that will take a long time to
reverse - if it’s even possible to do so. While China is actively trying to boost birthrates now,
they’re not seeing much success. The same goes for China’s problem with attracting talent from
outside its borders- barring a complete overhaul in the government’s approach to public affairs,
it’s likely that immigrants and corporations will be hesitant to invest in the country. The only
thing that could change this is a massive overhaul in China’s system of government.
And if that happens, the future would still look uncertain.
Say China’s massive student protests continue - and eventually bear fruit. Much like in Russia
during the 1980s, they get a new leader who takes real movement towards reform. Democracy is
introduced, the people get a say, and eventually the CCP ends its grip over the country and allows
something new to take its place. This is a massive change - and one that will likely turn
China’s focus inward for the better part of a decade. The CCP’s expansionist efforts will go
on the back burner, and a China in flux will be less likely to seek military conflict. Foreign
investors will likely be waiting to see which way the wind will blow before making heavy
investments. The result might be a stronger, more free China that is better able to compete
on the global stage - but it will take a while to get there, and that time will mean China
gets further away from being a global superpower while the US continues to consolidate its role.
So is the US likely to remain the sole superpower indefinitely?
At first glance, it seems likely. After all, China is its closest competitor and it looks
like it’s getting further and further away. Russia is increasingly isolated and looking like
a cornered animal. The fastest-growing country in the world, India, might be a contender - but its
focus is still internal, and it has serious border conflicts with its nuclear neighbor Pakistan.
While it’s likely to evolve into a Great Power over the coming decades, it’s not clear if it
even wants to become a Superpower - India has so far shown little ambition for expansionism, and in
many rural areas, it still shows characteristics of a developing nation, like a low literacy rate.
But the most likely candidate to be a rival superpower might not be a country at all, exactly.
With a population of 446 million, it’s only behind China and India. With an area of 1.6
million square miles, it’s only behind Russia in area. It’s the European Union,
the massive political union of 27 member states that covers most of western Europe - and is still
growing. While it recently lost Britain as a member state, it has many other countries
looking to potentially join. It has a nuclear power among its members in France, and all
its states have a high Human Development Index indicating high life expectancy and education
levels. If Russia’s expansion into Ukraine and beyond is foiled, the EU could become the biggest
winner - looking like an inviting option for any country worried about being targeted by Russia.
Would it eventually be a rival to the United States? The biggest stumbling block might be
a lack of a unified foreign policy and a modest military presence - but if its power continues to
grow, the member states might eventually move towards greater integration to become a more
cohesive unit - and given that most nations in the EU have close relations with the United States,
it’s possible that the two superpowers could become a dominant global alliance.
Want to know more about The United Kingdom’s heyday as a superpower?
Check out “How England Managed to Invade 90% of the World” or watch this video instead!