Hi there, I'm meteorologist Mary
Elk rubies with a weather update
here at 2:00 o'clock for WFAA.
We do have an enhanced risk for
severe weather in North Texas.
That is a Level 3 out of five for the
likelihood of strong to severe storms
and today will be a busy day for
North Texas newly from this morning.
A moderate risk now exists for areas
South and east of the Metroplex.
This is where you see that red shade there?
That's a level 4 out of five.
A rare situation with our
weather setting up here.
This afternoon I'm going to
focus here for North Texas.
Just about everyone in North Texas under
the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
The main concern being very large
hail as well as damaging wind gusts
in excess of 60 plus mile per hour.
Wind gusts not ruled out.
Also the possibility of tornadoes
also in the forecast.
Here is our severe weather outlook
for the rest of the state.
I showed you this moderate risk,
that's the red that you see there.
This does extend South of Waco along
I-35 into Austin, so Central, TX.
Included in this moderate risk
for severe weather,
again a four out of five for
a portion of Texas,
and this threat is going to really start
to ramp up after three this afternoon.
So within the next hour or so,
again,
our largest concern is going to
be the potential for large hail
as well as strong winds,
and this is going to be the
most widespread impact for us.
Also,
the threat for tornadic activity in the area,
as well as a flood risk those are.
Elevated this tornado risk?
I do want to emphasize that areas South
of Interstate 20 and east of I-35
run the risk of seeing strong tornadoes E,
F2 or larger,
possibly 4.
This afternoon.
I'm going to show you the set up now.
I know outside it's looking
cloudy we are seeing some rain,
and as of the latest discussion it
looks like there will be a severe
thunderstorm watch issued very, very soon.
Here's the setup,
though we have quite a bit of
moisture coming in from the South.
That's what's helping bring in.
All of that moisture.
All the cloud cover,
the scattered showers.
But we're also watching a dry
line that's now right to the well.
It looks like to the West of Abilene.
That's where we see these thunderstorms
taking shape.
Those storms are what will move
into this unstable air mass and
cause the severe weather for today.
We also have a cold front that will
swing through late today that is
going to help bring in the dry air
and push the storms out of the region.
But for now we are seeing some
activity non severe across North Texas.
I see some thunderstorms really
taking shape anywhere from.
McKinney to Corsicana.
Very long line of storms there.
And from Wichita Falls to Archer City.
There were some strong storms
there a couple hours ago.
That's north of the Red River
now and I'll be watching these
thunderstorms from Abilene to Haskell
as we approach the evening hours.
So again, lot of rain here but
non severe at the moment Dallas
County towards Collin County.
Seeing a line of thunderstorms.
No hail within this one but we could
see a few of these early afternoon
thunderstorms ramp up but the main event
again waiting until mid to late afternoon.
And we can see that lightning in
northern Collin County and something
we'll be watching the more lightning
we see within a storm.
That means it is intensifying.
So you see,
moderate to heavy rainfall again,
Melissa Blue Ridge,
Princeton to Wiley and into a Garland.
There is where we're currently
seeing the heaviest rain,
at least in the Metroplex.
But like I said,
I'll be watching just to the West,
where a line of showers and thunderstorms
are taking shape just to the West of Abilene.
Those are the storms that we'll
be watching for the potential
of strong to severe widespread.
Strong to severe thunderstorms I'm
gonna show you the time cast here.
This is Monday 4:00 in the afternoon.
We'll be watching this line
of thunderstorms again.
This is what's developing
just to the West of Abilene,
eventually making its way into our
Western counties Mineral Wells
to buoy Wichita Falls and South.
And we're also be watching the
threat for some thunderstorms to
develop ahead of this line ahead
of the line is where we can see
some supercell activity that means
thunderstorms that starts to rotate.
That's where we can see the large hail.
That's where we can see the
strongest of winds.
And that's where we can see Tornado.
Activity as well,
so this long line will continue to
progress from West to east throughout
the remainder of the afternoon.
This is Monday,
now at five I'm taking you hour by
hour here and we can see that line now
taking shape closer towards Gainesville,
a Denton County down to Tarrant County,
even Cleburne and what we'll
see is this line.
Continue to make its way to I-35
after 4-5 in the afternoon,
so I'm expecting it to be right along
right down the middle of the Metroplex
between 5:00 and 6:00 this afternoon.
So we'll notice this line will notice
some activity ahead of the line.
Of course,
we'll be monitoring both areas for the
potential of not just straight line winds,
but also the potential for tornadoes.
This will continue to move towards the east,
the more east it moves,
it starts to become somewhat more developed,
and again areas to the South of Interstate
20 and to the east of Interstate 35,
where that moderate risk
for severe weather is.
That's that's one of the that's
the four out of five level.
That's where we could see some
of this tornadic activity.
Start to ramp up.
So this is now.
Monday is now seven.
Well, this line continues to progress
towards the East, will notice this
rain moderate heavy rainfall.
This is where it's going to pick up
on a lot of that moisture and this is
where we could also see that potential
for some minor flood risk on top of
the rest of our severe weather outlook.
The rest of our risk for this
evening is now Monday eight.
We can see that starting to make
its way into Sulphur Springs,
Mineola, Athens and east of the area,
we may see a few thunderstorms
develop behind the main line.
But I think our atmosphere will
be a little bit too overworked.
I think all of the energy will be zapped
from it, for it to be any severe.
So I'm thinking that we will see
our severe weather threat between
3:00 and 10:00 for North Texas.
After that,
the threat is going to shift into
East Texas and then eventually
into the rest of the Gulf states.
If you have family members in Houston,
we have family members in the Brazos
Valley say College Station to Austin.
They are under a the highest
risk for severe weather today.
Our rainfall potential for US 1 1/2 to 2
inches of rain looking possible for us.
Again,
this is just within the next say
8 hours or so and that's a lot of
rain in a short amount of time.
That's where I we could run the
risk of some minor flood concerns,
especially along our Eastern counties.
Again, the threat highest South of us,
but we still run a very high risk for
strong to severe storms in the North
Texas region. Have our WFAA app.
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and of course Pete Delkus will
be in four or five and six at Ted
with the latest will turn you back
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