Hey everyone.
This is Kirk, here again at optionalpha.com.
And welcome!
Thanks so much for checking out this 4-part course on options trading.
I promise it won't be a waste of your time, and I'm really excited to share some of the
stuff that I've prepared for you guys.
So, here's what you can expect out of this 4-part series on options trading.
Video #1 which is the video right now, we're going to talk about why options versus stock.
So, why are we trading options versus stocks?
What are the benefits, the drawbacks?
What's the real underlying fundamental reason that we decide to go with options as opposed
to just simply trading stocks?
In Video #2, we're going to talk about the top 7 options trading principles.
So, these are the 7 options trading principles that I put together that I think are the most
important for beginners to get started, but are also great for those of you who have traded
options for a long time, but just haven't found success.
In Video #3, we're going to talk about managing risk and the fulltime business aspect of trading.
So, we really want to talk about making this a fulltime, long-term income generation system
for you guys, and how we can manage risk appropriately during that process, so that it becomes a
profitable venture for you.
And finally, in Video #4, we're going to take a detailed look at the strategies that I use
personally month after month to generate income at options trading.
Some words of caution before we begin: This is not a "get rich quick" system.
I cannot stress that enough.
So many people try and believe and think that I'm the end-all results to get rich quick
in options trading.
But this is not a get rich quick system by any means.
This does require you to do some work, which some of you might be surprised and possibly
even turn off the video at this point.
But as with anything that's worth going after in life, it does require some work on your
part.
For a moment, I just want you guys to also forget everything you know about investing
just for now.
So, take out all of the reading and knowledge and education that you might've heard.
And again, come at this with a clear mind and open mind to understanding a new way of
possibly trading and making money.
So, let's lay the foundation for why options are much more profitable and actually safer
for your portfolio.
But first, let's cover some of the reasons why people like to trade stocks when they
first start out, right?
It seems reasonable.
Let's understand why people go after stocks before they even come into the options trading
world, because it's likely that you started trading stocks before you even considered
options.
First, for stocks.
It's is a single dimensional profit.
It's very easy to understand.
You get the direction right, you either buy or sell the stock, and then you profit.
There's really nothing else to it.
You make money by buying low and selling high, or selling high and buying low.
#2, it's easy to purchase.
Like I said before, buying stock is very simple.
People understand this.
It's a concept that's been reinforced for years and years.
So, going out there and buying a stock versus a very detail option is a lot easier for people
to understand.
So naturally, they go towards that arena first.
#3 is that you actually have a lot of luxury and time.
You can hold positions for many, many years, decades even.
And what this does is this allows you the affordability to actually wait out a losing
trade for years and years until it becomes a winner.
But this also ties up your capital for a very long time.
#4 and probably the most important point here is that it's considered "safe."
And hopefully, I'm going to debunk this myth today, but it's generally accepted as an investing
form.
People all over the world, for years and decades, have invested in stocks.
And generally, the news media and the investment community consider stock investing to be rather
safe.
Of course, these are all valid reasons why nearly all investors know, understand, and
trade stocks versus options.
But does this mean it's the best possible avenue for your money?
Consider the following facts: The market is 100% random.
No matter what anybody says, the stock market has always been and will always be a random
occurrence environment, meaning that a normal distribution is typically how each day and
each month will lay out as far as profits and losses.
So in this chart here, you actually see, this is a normal distribution diagram which I'll
be using frequently throughout these videos.
And if you're a member, you'll see this a lot in the educational presentations that
we have.
But every stock and every market trades in a normal 100% random fashion.
So, what this means is that the majority of the action will occur within one standard
deviation of the current position or price of the underlying market.
So, 68% of the move roughly in a stock will happen within this timeframe, and then you'll
have some of these longer, thinner tails where these are your anomalies in the market, the
market is up 10% or down 10%, whatever.
But generally speaking, the market is 100% random, and this has been proven time and
time again.
So, statistically, stocks will follow this normal distribution pattern, and therefore,
have an equal chance of going up or down.
And this is the most important part to remember here.
If this wasn't true, and if you thought that stocks were not normally distributed, then
we would all be making money trading stocks.
It would be an easy bet for us to go one way or the other.
But we're not.
And that's because it's a 50/50 bet each time.
Each time you make a stock trade, (whether you're buying or selling a stock) there's
a 50% chance it'll be higher, and a 50% chance it'll be lower, nothing else, that's it.
So, you'll say to yourself, "Kirk, what about these professional money managers?
Surely, they know better, right?
They get paid thousands of dollars.
They know more than we know as just average retail investors."
Well, a study was done which took the top 14 investment firms expectation of where stocks
will be each year on January 1st, going back to 2006.
The expected returns from those top 14 investment firms were then averaged and compared to the
actual market performance during the same time period from 2006 onward.
So, what the study did is it said, "Okay, if these people are so much smarter and so
much better than the average retail trader, surely they have better expectations, and
on average, will be around where the market performs, or even underperform the market
as far as the expectation."
Here's the interesting facts of the study: The average return the analyst predicted over
that time period was 10.32%.
The actual average move for the market (specifically being the S&P 500) was 4.76% during that time
period.
This means that the top money managers in the world who get paid to know what the market
will or will not do were off by over 100%.
They over predicted what the market would do by 100%.
So, if someone told you they would pay you $100 and you get $50 in return, how long would
you continue to do business with that person?
Probably not very long, right?
And unfortunately, this happens all the time in our industry, and it's never discussed
or questioned, more importantly, at length.
Moreover, if we even look back further.
Their estimates were always above the average market increase during the last 50 years of
6.26%.
So, this begs the question.
If you knew that the last 50 years averaged 6.26% return, why not assume that that is
the average next year?
Why did these analysts continue to overestimate by nearly 100% more return each and every
year?
Yet, you pay them thousands of dollars to be 100% wrong each and every year.
And this honestly blows my mind.
So hopefully, this sheds a little bit of light on what really happens in the stock trading
world.
So, what's the point of all this, Kirk?
Well, the point is, neither you, nor I, have any clue which direction the market is headed.
That's the fact.
I have no idea where the market is headed, and neither do you.
So, we have to make trades based on their probability of success.
This is where options trading comes into play now more than ever.
So, let's now look at some of the advantages of trading options.
#1 is multiple ways to profit.
With options trading, direction is not the only solution.
With stocks, when you buy a stock, the only way you make money is if the stock goes up.
In options trading, we also consider things like volatility, time decay, and premium received.
And you can actually make money if the stock is going up, down, or sideways.
There's multiple ways to profit with options trading.
#2 is leverage.
You control a lot of shares with a little upfront capital investment.
Now, this always means that it's going to be a little bit riskier if you use this in
the inappropriate manner.
You over leverage your portfolio and take on too much risk, this can be a huge detriment,
and this is why a lot of options traders who start out, who don't know the right way to
trade, blow up their accounts.
So, even though I listed this as a major benefit, please understand that this is also something
that you can really get wrong.
#3 is that we know our probabilities.
We know ahead of time the chance of making a winning trade at each strike.
This is paramount to why options trading is way more profitable and way less riskier than
stock trading, because ahead of time, before we even enter the trade, we know exactly what
we can make on the trade, and the probability of making that return.
And #4 is volatility and time decay.
This is what I call "third dimension factors."
Determine which strategies we use.
So, it's never as simple as buy or sell, but it's a combination of option strategies like
iron condors, strangles, straddles, credit spreads, that we'll use and determine which
one we use based on volatility and time decay.
So like I said, with options, you can make a trade and know on order entry that you have
a 70% chance of making money and a 30% chance of losing money.
Now, compare this to any stock trading.
I don't care what stock traded is, what security it is.
And it is a 50% chance of making money and a 50% chance of losing money.
Throw them commission costs, and how could you ever profit long-term.
I'll end this video with this.
Options are by no means an end-all solution for investors.
You can and will lose money trading options.
Bad trades happen all the time, and do cost money.
However, this is a numbers game, and options are the only tool right now that allow you
to make smart high probability trades that match appropriate levels of risk and reward.
Period.
So, it's my goal here at Option Alpha to show you how to do this, and that's what I want
to do through these videos.
I want everyone watching this video to be educated on exactly how options can help you
make more money with less risk over time.
In the next video which you'll get via email in a couple of days, we are going to go over
the top 7 options trading principles in detail.
It will be less of this whiteboard text (I promise) that I did here, and much more hands-on.
So, I hope you get excited and are ready to get started.
Until then, please add your feedback, questions, comments below.
I want to know if this changes how you think about stocks and options going forward.
What questions do you have?
What things have you heard that you'd like to get answered right away?
And oh yeah, if you really found this helpful, please share it online, spread the word, let
others hear about what we're doing here at Option Alpha.
And until then, I'll wait to see you on the next video.