The clock strikes twelve in Manhattan, one of the most densely populated areas in New York
City and the entire United States. Millions of people live, work, and travel in this bustling
borough every day, filled to the brim with commuters from Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx.
Each year, tens of millions of tourists also visit Manhattan to see the colorful billboards of Times
Square and the elegant greenery of Central Park. Nicknamed “the Center of the Universe,” Manhattan
is home to thousands of landmarks of American culture, architecture, and entertainment,
but one weapon of mass destruction could rapidly reduce this modern metropolis to ash and rubble.
One minute past noon, an unmarked bomber flies over Manhattan carrying
multiple thermonuclear weapons, also known as hydrogen bombs.
These weapons of mass destruction can generate explosions thousands
of times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
The largest thermonuclear weapon ever constructed was the Soviet RDS-220,
nicknamed ‘Tsar Bomba’ or the King of Bombs. During the Cold War, Tsar Bomba was designed
by the Soviet Union as a demonstration of its military power. Tsar Bomba’s one and only test
produced an approximate yield of 50 megatons or 50 million tons of TNT, making it the most
powerful man-made explosive in history. Not all thermonuclear weapons yield as much power as
Tsar Bomba, but even lesser bombs, like the United States B-41, can bring unimaginable destruction.
The tremendous energy generated by any thermonuclear weapon comes from a combination
of two chemical processes: nuclear fission and nuclear fusion. Atomic bombs, like those dropped
on Japan, rely exclusively on nuclear fission, splitting large atoms into smaller nuclei to
create energy. Thermonuclear weapons still use fission to generate heat and explosive power, but
they also employ nuclear fusion, combining smaller hydrogen atoms under extremely high temperatures.
Hydrogen isotopes, like tritium or deuterium, typically repulse one another when they are
ionized and given a positive charge; but with enough kinetic energy, they can overcome their
repulsion and fuse into a larger atom of helium. In doing so, they shed a small
percentage of their mass, which is converted into energy. According to Einstein’s famous equation,
energy equals mass multiplied by the speed of light squared. Thus, these tiny chemical reactions
produce enough energy for a catastrophic blast. At the moment of detonation, a primary fission
reaction causes temperatures inside the bomb to skyrocket to over 100 million degrees.
Heat rushes through the detonation system and sparks a fusion reaction in the bomb’s gaseous
fuel, which contains isotopes of hydrogen. The fusion fuel, in turn, triggers fission within
a so-called “spark plug” made from uranium or plutonium. This chemical chain reaction
allows some hydrogen bombs to generate as much explosive power as several million tonnes of TNT.
This particular weapon — dropped from a mysterious bomber onto New York City — detonates about a mile
above the ground to maximize its damage and destruction. A fraction of a second later,
onlookers of the explosion are blinded by a white flash of light, briefly shining brighter
than the sun. A massive fireball erupts outward and vaporizes almost everything it touches. New
York City’s high rises and taxi cabs turn to dust as the temperature of the fireball
climbs to tens of millions of degrees. The fireball releases a ring of thermal
energy from its core that scorches all living things and causes extreme damage
to all but the most hardened structures. Famous skyscrapers like the Empire State
Building collapse in blazing piles of rubble. The vegetation in Central Park is reduced to ash,
and all combustible materials melt or burst into flames. Nearly 100% of people inside this thermal
ring suffer fatal third-degree burns, destroying their nerves, hair, and multiple layers of skin.
As the fireball rapidly expands, it pushes back the surrounding air, and a shock wave,
or air blast, radiates from the center of the explosion at supersonic speeds. This shock wave
generates winds over 600 kilometers per hour that tear the roofs off buildings and launch cars,
road signs, and chunks of metal like cannonballs through the streets of New York City. Gas
tanks and power lines explode as buildings and bridges, weakened by extreme heat and pressure,
crumble like towers of sand. Within seconds of the blast, most of Midtown Manhattan and
its hundreds of cultural landmarks are smashed, melted, and reduced to rubble.
Around ground zero, a fierce updraft sweeps hot, vaporized debris into the atmosphere,
forming a mushroom-shaped cloud taller than any structure on Earth. Vaporized debris bonds with
radioactive particles inside the cloud, creating radioactive dust or “fallout.” After about ten
minutes, the red-hot vapor cools and condenses, and the mushroom cloud reaches its maximum height.
Soon, fallout rains down onto the Earth, contaminating almost everything it touches,
including water supplies like the Hudson River.
Countless homes and streets are coated in fallout, exposing hundreds of thousands
of New Yorkers to sickening or possibly lethal doses of radiation, but the people of New York
City aren’t the only ones at risk. Moderate to high winds can spread radioactive fallout
across hundreds of square kilometers. If the wind is blowing Northeast from the blast site,
areas as far as New Hampshire could be exposed to dangerous radioactive particles.
Already, this catastrophic event has ended hundreds of thousands of lives. Those caught
in the initial explosion leave no remains except shadows cast on nearby surfaces,
but over the next few hours, the fatality rate will climb even higher. Inside the blast zone,
survivors of the initial explosion succumb to horrific injuries like third-degree burns and
shattered bones. Others are crushed or suffocated under piles of rubble and radioactive debris. Many
more people are injured or killed in the raging wildfires spreading rapidly through
New York City’s densely populated boroughs. By nightfall, hospitals and emergency rooms are
overwhelmed by thousands of patients with severe burns, temporary blindness, and other traumatic
injuries. Emergency responders rush into the city to save as many people as possible, but the
streets of Manhattan are clogged with dangerous debris and still hot enough to melt through skin
and rubber. Rescue teams do everything they can to help survivors on the outskirts of the blast zone,
though it may be days before they reach anyone near ground zero. Without medical treatment,
more people succumb to their injuries, and the death toll continues to rise.
Meanwhile, radioactive fallout spreads across the Northeastern United States, causing another
wave of hospitalizations. Thousands are already suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome, or ARS,
which can cause seizures, hair loss, and even cancer, depending on the type and length of
exposure. Some people directly exposed to radioactive fallout may not develop
symptoms until days or months after the initial explosion. Even at greater distances from ground
zero, many people are indirectly exposed to radiation through contaminated food or water.
Livestock may unknowingly consume radioactive plants or drink from toxic water supplies.
Products made from these contaminated animals, like milk or cheese, may be distributed
across the United States or worldwide, exposing countless people to dangerous internal radiation.
Within months of the initial explosion, some areas of New York City far from the blast zone,
like Staten Island or eastern Queens, may gradually recover. As radiation
dissipates and debris is cleared, residents of these areas may return to their homes,
but it could be years before most of the city is clean or safe enough for human habitation.
Public health and safety aren’t the only things in jeopardy after this catastrophic event. The New
York Metropolitan Area is one of the world’s largest financial centers, boasting a GDP of
nearly 1.6 trillion dollars. If a thermonuclear bomb detonated over New York City, the explosion
may trigger a worldwide socioeconomic crisis. Having lost valuable employees and specialized
personnel, many prominent businesses would declare bankruptcy. The cost of recovery,
including decontamination and reconstruction, would also place a substantial burden on the
federal government. Though Wall Street may effectively survive, thanks to data backed
up in other locations, the destruction of New York City would significantly influence the market and
propel the U.S. economy into severe distress. The United States does have defense programs,
like the Ground-based Midcourse Defense, or GMD, to protect American cities from certain nuclear
attacks. However, the United States relies heavily on a policy of deterrence to preserve peace among
nations armed with nuclear weapons. There are about 12,500 nuclear warheads in the world today,
and about 5,200 of them belong to the United States. The U.S. government has long pledged
to deploy nuclear weapons only under extreme circumstances. Should a nuclear weapon explode in
the epicenter of New York City, killing millions of Americans and devastating national landmarks,
the United States may be motivated to unleash the power of its nuclear arsenal.
Federal agents could use samples of debris and other clues to trace the original
weapon’s origins. Only nine countries in the world have active nuclear weapons,
so the U.S. may quickly uncover the source of the weapon and declare war on whichever
country it came from. A large-scale nuclear war may endanger hundreds of millions,
or even billions of people and potentially release enough debris into the atmosphere to
block out the sun. Though it’s unlikely to happen, if a nuclear weapon hits New
York City tomorrow, the impact would be globally catastrophic for decades to come.