The Chinese Communist Party
Wants to invade Taiwan
Could the Party’s power struggles
Mean an invasion this year?
Welcome to China Uncensored. I’m Chris Chappell.
This episode is sponsored by Surfshark. You should be using
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So, the Chinese Communist Party is going to invade Taiwan. They’ve said they’re going to do it,
over and over again.
When Chinese leader Xi Jinping says he wants peaceful unification with Taiwan,
it means the Communist Party is going to take over Taiwan.
Unless the Party collapses first. It could happen, but don’t hold your breath.
But barring that, it’s only a question of *when* the Communist Party will try to invade Taiwan.
Last year, a US admiral said China could invade Taiwan as soon as 2027.
That’s only five years away.
Then Taiwan’s defense minister said China could be ready to invade by
2025. That’s only three years away.
Others say we have at least until 2024 before China invades. Probably.
I’m not feeling good about this. The numbers keep getting smaller.
And if you think a possible Taiwan invasion in 2024 sounds too close for comfort, buckle up.
Because some military experts, like former national security advisor
General McMaster , think Taiwan is in danger from 2022 on. Yeah, this year.
It’s clear the world should be prepared for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
And we are not prepared.
Before you panic, there are at least three big reasons to think the Chinese regime will not
launch an invasion of Taiwan this year.
The first is the Winter Olympics in Beijing next month. The Communist Party wants to pull off a
huge propaganda win here. And they’re already having problems. What with having to lock down
large parts of the country due to their zero Covid policy. Plus all the negative attention
from countries holding diplomatic boycotts of the Olympics due to China’s, you know, genocide.
Speaking of which, have you seen our new t-shirts celebrating the Winter Olympics? Beijing 2022:
Fake snow. Real genocide. Get yours today at chinauncensored.tv/merchandise.
Anyway, the point is, the Chinese Communist Party is probably not going to try to take
over another country while hosting a major international sporting event.
However, the Olympics are also over next month. So that’s not buying Taiwan a lot of time.
The second reason the Chinese regime is less likely to launch a Taiwan invasion this year
is the 20th Party Congress that’s happening this fall.
That’s when Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be trying to get a third term as head of
the Communist Party. If he manages that, he’s pretty much going to be presitator for life.
So of course Xi Jinping thinks it’s going to be a major event for China’s politics.
He’s just like every Bridezilla who thinks their wedding is the major event of the year.
So if Xi has pretty much got this power struggle locked down,
he’s less likely to rock the boat by attempting to invade Taiwan before the 20th Party Congress.
But if Xi doesn’t have the upper hand, that makes invading Taiwan more likely.
I’ll explain why later in this episode.
But first, the third reason the Chinese regime is less likely to invade Taiwan
this year is…invasions are hard, man.
The People’s Liberation Army hasn’t been in a war in more than 40 years,
since the 1979 war between China and Vietnam.
The Chinese Communist Party would much rather use their decades of experience
in subversion and infiltration to quietly take over Taiwan instead.
Like by influencing Taiwanese society so politicians who are
more friendly to the Chinese Communist Party get elected.
And those politicians would gradually encourage closer ties with mainland China,
until everyone agrees that Taiwan should just be ruled by the Communist Party
under a One Country, Two Systems framework, just like Hong Kong.
If that sounds far-fetched to you, this was the trajectory Taiwan was on less than a decade ago,
under former President Ma Ying-jeou . Ma pushed greater economic ties with mainland China.
And he even met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping back in 2015.
Don’t they look happy together? Relatively speaking.
But not everyone in Taiwan was a big fan of this.
In fact, Ma’s attempts to push through a trade agreement with the Chinese regime led to student
protesters occupying Taiwan’s legislature in 2014, which was known as the Sunflower Movement.
In the end, the trade agreement was never signed,
and the Sunflower Movement reshaped Taiwan’s politics.
In 2016 and 2020, Taiwan elected and then reelected President Tsai Ing-wen . She and
her political party, the DPP, are a lot less friendly to the Chinese Communist Party. Which
is why the Party keeps calling them secessionists and separatists, for…democratically ruling Taiwan.
So the Chinese regime has had a pretty big setback to their
subversion of Taiwan plan. Their next chance is Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024.
Which is why some experts think China won’t invade Taiwan until after 2024.
But as time goes on, it looks less and less likely
subversion will work. Especially after what the Chinese regime did to Hong Kong.
So…back to invasion. I just told you several reasons why China probably won’t invade Taiwan
this year. But recent political events in China show it might be more likely than we think.
More after the break.
Welcome back. So the Chinese Communist Party
is probably going to wait until 2024 or later to invade Taiwan. Probably.
But the wild card here is what’s happening in the Chinese Communist Party’s internal power
struggles. And that means a Taiwan invasion, or at least a big Taiwan crisis, could happen this year.
That’s according to SinoInsider, a China political risk consultancy.
They say there’s an increased probability of a Taiwan-China cross-strait crisis in 2022.
Why? Well, it’s time for everyone’s favorite Communist soap opera, General Hostility .
Previously on General Hostility, current Chinese leader Xi Jinping is locked in a final showdown
with former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin. For both factions, it’s a fight to the death.
But a third faction is about to step in. And they could change the game completely.
I know, there’s been a lot of episodes of General Hostility lately.
It’s like they’re getting ready for the big finale.
The main players in General Hostility are Chinese leader Xi Jinping and former leader and chief toad
Jiang Zemin . When Xi came to power in 2012, Jiang and his people had a tight grip on power.
Jiang had gained power through massively expanding China’s internal security apparatus.
And his faction held that power even during the rule of Jiang’s successor Hu Jintao .
Jiang’s faction was so powerful that in 2012,
they tried to take down Xi Jinping, and install one of their guys in his place, Bo Xilai .
That coup attempt failed. Partly because of a huge scandal that took down Bo Xilai.
Apparently Bo’s wife murdered a British guy, Neil Heywood . And then covered it up.
That scandal was revealed after Bo’s right-hand guy tried to seek asylum
after fleeing to the US Consulate disguised as an old woman. Man 2012 was a crazy year.
But that’s not the real reason Bo Xilai was taken down. It’s because Bo,
a member of Jiang’s faction, was trying to launch his own bid to be top dog of the Party.
Anyway, Bo Xilai’s downfall gave Xi Jinping enough breathing room to launch his own attack
against Jiang’s faction. That came in the form of a years-long anti-corruption campaign
that happened to target his political opponents.
And the two sides have been duking it out ever since.
But now that Xi Jinping is trying to become presitator for life,
a third group is weighing in. The princelings.
The princelings are also known as the red aristocrats.
They are the descendents of the original founders of the Chinese Communist Party.
They are the most elite members of the Party. And they have immense amounts of wealth and power.
Princelings aren’t necessarily a cohesive faction themselves.
Mostly they seem to think that as the true elite, they’re too good for this
kind of factional struggle. But they still hold a lot of power behind the scenes.
Some princelings do belong to the Jiang faction. For example,
Bo Xilai was a prominent princeling. Another princeling member of the Jiang faction is
Zhang Gaoli the guy tennis player Peng Shuai accused of sexual assault.
But in general, the princelings don’t really like the Jiang faction.
“Most were unhappy with the Jiang faction…for denying the bulk of them
a greater say in ruling the regime, which they hold to be their ‘birthright.’”
Ah, communism. The political system of hereditary birthright.
The princelings also didn’t like that the Jiang faction was getting rich and powerful through
corruption. Because they viewed these officials as just caretakers, like their bureaucratic servants.
And “In their view, only the true heirs of the ‘red’ regime, and not the ‘caretakers,’
have the ‘special privilege’ of engaging in corruption and wielding power with impunity.”
What about Xi’s faction? Well Xi Jinping is actually a princeling himself.
He doesn’t belong to one of the most powerful princeling families. But
he is the son of a famous Communist revolutionary.
So when Xi came to power a decade ago and started talking about how he would Make the
Communist Party Great Again, the princelings thought Xi would do what they wanted.
“They believed that Xi, a genuine princeling, would naturally be on
their side and ‘restore’ them to their rightful role as rulers of the regime.”
But it turned out that Xi just wanted to do what he wanted. And the princelings aren’t too happy.
More after the break.
Welcome back.
There are reports that Xi Jinping has detained, or put under “internal control,”
one of his prominent princeling critics, former PLA Air Force general Liu Yazhou.
Liu is not a member of Jiang’s faction. In fact,
Liu once supported Xi Jinping, but then he was forced to retire early in 2017.
Since then, Liu has been speaking out against Xi.
And Liu specifically criticized Xi’s handling of Taiwan.
“Liu had been saying at princeling gatherings that Xi lacks the ability to lead the CCP to
victory in a ‘decisive battle’ over Taiwan where the regime’s fortunes are at stake,
and requested ‘a change of commander-in-chief.’”
Oh, those are fighting words.
Some analysts believe Liu represents the princelings’ general view on Xi:
that he’s no longer the right leader for the Party.
Which means “The princelings are actively promoting the view that Xi Jinping is unfit
to serve another term at the 20th Party Congress.”
If that’s the case, it’s a huge blow to Xi Jinping,
who now has to fight off both the Jiang faction and the princelings.
And Xi might decide he has to prove he has what it takes to lead the Party
by…invading Taiwan. Before the 20th Party Congress.
What a twist.
General Hostility just keeps coming up with surprises coming.
“If Xi is unable to…deal with economic deterioration and other domestic problems,
and sufficiently suppress his factional rivals in the lead up to the 20th Party Congress, he could
be forced into invading Taiwan this year (even if the regime is not ready) to stay in power.”
If Xi Jinping successfully invades Taiwan, then he’s definitely presitator for life.
But what if he fails? Won’t that be worse for him than not invading at all? Not necessarily.
Sometimes launching a war can be a success for the Communist Party leadership,
even if the war is a failure.
“Deng Xiaoping’s brief Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979
helped him to consolidate control over the PLA…and strengthen Sino-U.S. ties to the PRC’s advantage.”
So even though China lost the war with Vietnam, the war was a personal success for Deng.
It’s a gamble of course. And keep in mind that even if the princelings do manage to oust Xi
Jinping from power, whoever they replace him with isn’t going to be better. Because the Communist
Party’s overall goals of taking over Taiwan and then the world aren’t going to change.
Enemies surround Xi Jinping at every turn. Will the powerful princelings force Xi Jinping to
invade Taiwan? Will Xi find another way to take down his enemies instead? Or will a mysterious new
figure take over the Communist Party, and then the world? Find out next time, on General Hostility.
That show really knows how to keep you hooked.
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Once again, I’m Chris Chappell. Thanks for watching China Uncensored.