Building an aircraft fleet and planning for its future is a major task for all airlines. Indeed,
the largest carriers in the world already have a fairly clear idea of which types they'll be flying
in 2030. This is largely due to the amount of time it takes for aircraft manufacturers to bring a new
design to market, but also a result of the backlog those manufacturers have for brand new aircraft.
So with the current situation between Airbus and Qatar Airways,
let's engage in a small thought experiment and ask ourselves in today’s video:
What can we expect the Qatar Airways fleet to look like a decade from now?
Firstly, it should be noted that the topic of this video is based on some big assumptions. First,
this outlook assumes that the current feud between Airbus and Qatar Airways will result in a
permanent (or at least long-term) rift between the two parties. Indeed, there seem to be few outcomes
in this surface-degradation case in which Qatar Airways will be ordering from Airbus anytime soon.
Additionally, many commenting on the SimpleFlying.com article that this video is based
on note that things could change drastically if the head of Qatar Airways changes in the future.
But, regardless of who wins the surface-degradation case,
it would seem that enough 'bad blood' now exists between the two groups
that neither will want to do business with the other.
As a customer, Qatar Airways is free to simply 'not order' from Airbus. But,
on the other side, Airbus has already taken the seemingly
unprecedented step of canceling orders from an airline customer - showing the
industry that the European planemaker just fine saying 'no' to more business.
So with this in mind, what will be some
stand-out characteristics of the Qatar Airways fleet come 2032?
First off, we would imagine that the Airbus A350 will no longer be
operated by the carrier, even though, at this point in time,
the twin-engine widebody is the newest type in the airline's collection of aircraft.
However, even if some of these active jets are now as young as two or three years old,
they may not be around in 10 years.
Why is this? Well, it's because many of Qatar Airways' A350s, both -900 and -1000, are leased.
And, according to ch-aviation.com, many of these leases have an estimated expiration date within
the late 2020s and early 2030s. So if we combine this with the fact that Qatar Airways consistently
boasts about having one of the youngest fleets in the world, then it's likely that even the
youngest A350s will be phased out and sent back to lessors once terms are finished.
Without a doubt, the airline's narrowbody A320 family fleet will also be gone,
seeing as these aircraft already have an average age of 10 years.
Additionally, we would also expect the airline to have phased out its A330s and A380s - aircraft
that are only still flying these days due to the grounding of over two dozen A350s.
Admittedly, it would be amazing (for A380 lovers) if the carrier could operate its
superjumbos for another 10 years. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem
to be a likely prospect - even if the youngest superjumbos are just five to six years of age.
So, as you can clearly see,
Qatar Airways seems like it would be well on its way to join Southwest,
Ryanair, and Canada’s WestJet on the list of airlines that are loyal Boeing customers...
So again, if we assume that the airline will be "going all-Boeing," then what will
it be operating? Well, the answer seems quite clear with the airline's current order book.
ch-aviation.com data (and of course recent Simple Flying reporting)
shows that the airline has at least 25 Boeing 737 MAX 10s on order. Additionally, the airline
has made a commitment to taking 24 777-8Fs and 50 777-9s. The biggest question mark for the
carrier's upcoming orders relates to whether or not Boeing will end up scrapping the MAX 10
and how this will change the airline's direction If the MAX 10 is axed due to certification issues,
it's quite likely the airline will just opt for the MAX 9 instead.
The newer types on order are in addition to the 787-9 Dreamliners the airline had ordered
from Boeing in October 2016, which came alongside an order for 10 more 777-300ERs.
It will be interesting to see if the airline decides to phase out its older Dreamliners
by then. That's because its oldest 787-8s would be 18-20 years old by the early 2030s.
Of course, we would need to ask ourselves what these will be replaced with. Would the airline
opt for factory-fresh Dreamliners? And, at the same time, would it have any other options?
If we look at airline fleets around the world today, it’s indeed quite difficult
to find airlines similar to Qatar Airways that are all-Boeing (or even all-Airbus!).
Most hub and spoke legacy carriers with operations similar to Qatar Airways
operate a mix of both Airbus and Boeing jets.
Some airlines have chosen Airbus for short-haul operations and large Boeing aircraft for their
long-haul flights - with United Airlines being one example of this (although they do have an Airbus
A350 order that may or may not materialize!). In South America, LATAM follows a similar pattern.
For other carriers, it’s the other way around - such as
Fiji Airways with its 737s, A330s, and A350s.
Indeed, it seems quite difficult to find a legacy carrier with a large fleet of
narrowbodies and widebodies that is fully loyal to one planemaker. The closest demonstrations of
this would be WestJet with its 737s and 787s, and Icelandair with its 737s and older 757s and 767s.
These two airlines, however, have operating models and environments that are quite different from
Qatar Airways - and are also much, much smaller than the middle eastern carrier. If you do find
an all Airbus or all-Boeing full-service legacy carrier, do let us know by leaving a comment!
Moving on, we should ask ourselves what
currently-non-existent aircraft the airline could operate…
Of course, these next few guesses are a little more
'out there,' since there are far more unknowns when it comes to future aircraft.
But again, this is a thought exercise with a whole lot of hypotheticals…
If we look at historical trends then we can see that over the years,
Qatar Airways has been keen to be a launch customer for various new aircraft types.
And while we have far less visibility on what these new aircraft types might be,
we could certainly envision the airline's CEO wanting to be at the front of the line.
Could the airline operate an extended range variant of the Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner?
Or maybe a re-engined 787 or a long-range variant of the 737-10?
Perhaps we could even see Qatar Airways become a customer for
Boeing’s future cleansheet type, the 797?
We really just have to wait and see what Boeing will come up with next.
However, the latter is perhaps the most interesting prospect. If we estimate that
Boeing launches a new aircraft program within the next two years and takes five
to seven years to get the aircraft certified and into service, then it's certainly possible
that Qatar Airways could be the launch customer of the next 'latest and greatest' Boeing jet.
Of course, this also assumes that the program isn't plagued by too many delays!
Additionally, while the airline has given no hints or shown any interest in following
Japan Airlines and United Airlines' lead in buying into Boom Supersonic,
perhaps the Boom Overture is a possibility given the airline's reputation for being a high-quality,
premium-service airline. Of course, it's also not an Airbus aircraft…
And finally, whether or not Qatar Airways could be an operator of Chinese commercial aircraft
is also a big unknown. With the current state of the C919 and CR929, it’s hard
to imagine that these products could be better options than what Boeing is currently offering.
While Qatar Airways' current orders make us fairly certain that it will be flying the 737 MAX,
787-9, and one passenger 777X variant,
we will just have to wait and see what happens over the next few years!
While based on quite a few assumptions, this thought exercise highlights the importance
of having options when it comes to operating aircraft. We’re not going to wade into the thorny
topic of evaluating whether Airbus or Boeing offers better aircraft, but it can be argued
that having fleet diversity protects against unexpected issues and their resulting groundings.
Ultimately, the feud between Qatar Airways and Airbus will leave the airline with fewer options
while increasing its dependency on Boeing to make
aircraft that are best suited for the airline’s style of operations.
What do you think Qatar Airways' fleet will look like in 10 years?
And could you see the airline going back to being an Airbus customer under certain circumstances?
Let us know what you think by leaving a comment!