>>> IT IS 33 PAST THE HOUR.
A LIVE LOOK AT THE WHITE HOUSE.
WELCOME BACK TO "MORNING JOE."
.
>>> THE WAR IN UKRAINE IS
PROVING EXTRAORDINARILY DEADLY
FOR RUSSIAN TROOPS, AND NOT JUST
THE RANK AND FILE.
AS "THE WASHINGTON POST"
REPORTS, RUSSIAN GENERALS ARE
BEING AGGRESSIVELY TARGETED BY
UKRAINIAN FORCES AND KILLED AT A
RATE NOT SEEN SINCE WORLD WAR
II.
THEY'RE BEING PICKED OFF BY
SNIPERS, IN CLOSE COMBAT AND IN
BOMBINGS.
UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS SAY THEIR
FORCES HAVE KILLED SEVEN
GENERALS ALONGSIDE MORE SENIOR
RUSSIAN ARMY AND NAVAL
COMMANDERS IN JUST FOUR WEEKS OF
COMBAT.
MEANWHILE, RUSSIA'S
COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS ARE
FAILING AT A HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED RATE, FORCING INVADING
TROOPS TO RELY ON OPEN SYSTEMS
THAT CAN BE READILY INTERCEPTED
BY UKRAINIAN FORCES.
ACCORDING TO NEW REPORTING IN
FOREIGN POLICY, UKRAINIAN UNITS
ARE EXPLOITING RUSSIA'S LACK OF
COMMUNICATIONS TO JAM AND
INTERFERE WITH TACTICAL MESSAGES
AND IN SOME CASES EVEN
PINPOINTING THE LOCATION OF
RUSSIAN GENERAL OFFICERS FOR
SNIPERS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAINED
BY WESTERN MILITARIES OVER THE
PAST EIGHT YEARS.
THE UKRAINIANS HAVE BEEN
PREPARING FOR THIS.
JOINING US NOW, THE REPORTERS
BEHIND THOSE PIECES.
LONDON BUREAU CHIEF FOR "THE
WASHINGTON POST," WILLIAM BOOTH.
AND NATIONAL SECURITY AND
INTELLIGENCE REPORTER AT
"FOREIGN POLICY" AMY McKINNON.
ALSO WITH US, THE HOST OF "WAY TOO EARLY" AND WHITE HOUSE CHIEF
TOO EARLY" AND WHITE HOUSE CHIEF
AT "POLITICO", JONATHAN LEMIRE.
KATTY KAY IS WITH US AS WELL.
LOOKING AT THE MAP AND RUSSIA'S
GAIN AND THE LACK THEREOF, I
THINK IT WAS UNEXPECTED BY
VLADIMIR PUTIN TO BE IN THIS
POSITION RIGHT NOW.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
IF YOU LOOK AT THAT MAP, MIKA,
AND YOU PUT A CLOCK OVER IT,
WHAT YOU SEE IS BASICALLY FROM
12:00 THROUGH 6:00 GOING
CLOCKWISE, THAT'S WHERE THE
RUSSIAN POSITIONS ARE.
THE IDEA THAT THEY WOULD MOVE
INTO THE CENTER OR WEST HAS
ESSENTIALLY BEEN STYMIED.
THE QUESTION, AND WILLIAM WOULD
BE THE PERFECT PERSON TO ADDRESS
IT, IS WHETHER NOW
ESSENTIALLY -- WE'VE HAD THE
SIGNALS, THIS IS WHAT THE
RUSSIANS HAVE SAID, WE CAN'T DO
BETTER THAN THIS SO WE'RE GOING
TO HOLD THIS, AND WHETHER HE
THINKS THAT THEY ARE SEEING THIS
AS SOMETHING TO TRADE
DIPLOMATICALLY OR JUST TO FREEZE
THIS IN PLACE, THAT THIS
ESSENTIALLY BECOMES THEIR NEW
DEFINITION OF VICTORY?
>> WILLIAM?
>> UM, IN TERMS OF WHERE THE
RUSSIANS WANT TO GO IN FREEZING
THEIR OPERATIONS, I DON'T HAVE
GREAT EYES ON THAT.
I HAVE GREAT EYES ON THE
GENERALS THAT WERE KILLED, SO I
THINK THERE'S --
>> WILLIAM, LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT
THAT BECAUSE I'M GOING TO READ A
LINE FROM YOUR PIECE I THINK IS
FASCINATING.
IT IS JUST ONE MORE LINE AND IT
IS THE REPORTED HIGH ATTRITION
RATE FROM RUSSIAN COMMANDERS IN
UKRAINE UNDERSCORES THE PROBLEM
OF INVADING THE COUNTRY ON A
FALSE SET OF ASSUMPTIONS,
EXPECTING TO SWIFTLY TOPPLE
UKRAINE'S GOVERNMENT AND INSTALL
A PUPPET REGIME TO BRING IT BACK
TO MOSCOW'S ORBIT.
WHY WAS THAT DAMNING?
>> I THINK THEY ASSUMED THEY
WERE GOING TO GO IN AND TAKE
KYIV VERY QUICKLY AND THEY WOULD
BE WELL ACCEPTED.
THE PROBLEM IS THEY'VE BEEN
STALLED OVER THE LAST FOUR WEEKS
AND THEY'VE BEEN FOUGHT VERY
HARD BY THE UKRAINIAN FORCES.
THE POINT OF OUR PIECE JUST THE
OTHER DAY WAS THAT THE SEVEN
GENERALS WERE HIT.
SOME WERE TARGETED OR CERTAINLY
UNLUCKY, AND THAT THE UKRAINIAN
FORCES ARE LOOKING TO STOP THE
COMMAND AND CONTROL UNIT IT THAT
ARE AT THE FRONT OF THE ADVANCES
OF THE RUSSIAN FORCES AND
THEY'VE BEEN PRETTY EFFECTIVE.
>> YEAH.
ALSO, THE CASUALTIES THAT RUSSIA
HAS ENDURED IN THIS, IS THIS
SOMETHING THAT IS SURPRISING TO
THEM AND HOW DOES THAT IMPACT
THEIR THINKING ON THE STRATEGY?
DOES IT BOTHER THEM OR DO THEY
JUST PULL IN MORE TROOPS?
>> I THINK THEIR CASUALTIES HAVE
BEEN MAYBE ASTOUNDING, VERY,
VERY HIGH.
NATO OFFICIALS BRIEFED REPORTERS
IN EUROPE LAST WEEK WHEN BIDEN
CAME THAT THERE WERE 7,000 TO
15,000 RUSSIAN TROOPS KILLED.
THAT IS A LOT OF PEOPLE.
THAT IS WAY HIGHER ATTRITION
RATES THAN WE'RE SEEING IN SOME
OF THE WORST WEEKS IN CHECHNYA
AND THE RUSSIANS DIDN'T LOSE
THAT MANY PEOPLE IN GEORGIA AND,
YOU KNOW, AFGHANISTAN WAS A MANY
LONG-YEAR WAR.
THIS IS A HIGH LEVEL AND A LOT
OF SENIOR COMMANDERS KILLED.
>> SO, AMY, YOU WRITE IN
"FOREIGN POLICY" THE UKRAINIANS
ARE LISTENING, RUSSIA'S MILITARY
RADIOS ARE GETTING OWNED.
YOU WRITE IN PART THIS.
UKRAINE'S SECURITY SERVICE, THE
GOVERNMENT'S MAIN
COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ARM, HAS
INTERCEPTED DOZENS OF CALLS
AMONG RUSSIAN SOLDIERS, THEIR
HIGHER UNITS AND RELATIVES.
IN ONE CAPTURED CALL, A RUSSIAN
SOLDIER TOLD HIS MOTHER HIS UNIT
HAD INDISCRIMINATELY SHELLED A
FIVE-STORY APARTMENT BUILDING
AND THAT MANY TROOPS DREAMED OF
FLEEING THE BATTLEFIELD.
OTHER TROOPS ADMITTED ON
INTERCEPTED CALLS THEIR UNITS
WERE EXAGGERATING THEIR STRENGTH
IN REPORTS BACK TO THE RUSSIAN
DEFENSE MINISTRY.
AMY, TALK TO ME ABOUT ON HOW
MANY DIFFERENT LEVELS THIS IS
CRUSHING TO RUSSIA'S MORALE BUT
ALSO SHOWS US HOW NOT ONLY
RESILIENT BUT RESOURCEFUL THE
UKRAINIANS ARE IN THIS BATTLE.
>> WELL, I THINK THE FIRST THING
THAT THESE INTERCEPTS SPEAK TO
IS JUST HOW UNPREPARED THE
RUSSIAN FORCES WERE TO BE SENT
OVER THE BORDER INTO UKRAINE TO
START THIS WAR.
YOU KNOW, WE KNOW FROM THE
INTERCEPTS THAT MANY OF THESE
SOLDIERS, MANY OF WHOM ARE
INCREDIBLY YOUNG, WERE VERY
CONFUSED AS THEY WERE BEING SENT
INTO UKRAINE.
THEY WERE ONLY -- MANY WERE ONLY
GIVEN 24 HOURS NOTICE AND THEY
DIDN'T HAVE THE TIME REQUIRED TO
EXCHANGE THE KIND OF ENCRYPTION
KEYS THAT THEY NEED TO MAKE SURE
THAT THEY CAN SPEAK OVER SECURE
LINES WITH THEIR COM RALDSRADES
THEY WERE HEADING INTO UKRAINE.
IT IS NOT JUST THE UKRAINIAN
INTELLIGENCE SERVICES THAT ARE
LISTENING IN.
IT IS ANYBODY, HAM RADIO
ENTHUSIASTS, REPORTERS,
ANALYSTS, ANYBODY WITH TIME AND
TECHNOLOGY TO GET CONNECTED TO
THE RADIOS CAN LISTEN BECAUSE
THEY ARE SPEAKING IN SOME
INSTANCES OVER WALKIE-TALKIES,
AND THERE'S ALSO BEEN REPORTS
THEY'RE USING UKRAINIAN
CELLPHONES.
IF YOU ARE IN UKRAINE USING
UKRAINIAN CELLPHONE YOU ARE BET
THE UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE
SERVICES ARE GOING TO FIND THEIR
WAY INTO THAT.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> ON THAN JONATHAN LEMIRE.
GIVE US MORE ON THE REPORTING
ABOUT UKRAINIANS BEING ABLE TO
LISTEN INTO THE COMMUNICATIONS
AND A BROADER LOOK AS TO HOW
TERRIBLE THE RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT
HAS BEEN RIGHT NOW, THAT THEY'VE
HAD REAL ISSUES WITH EQUIPMENT
BREAKING DOWN, SUPPLY CHAINS
BEING OUTSTRETCHED AND BEING
UNABLE TO USE WHAT WESTERN AFFILIATES, OFFICIALS HAD
AFFILIATES, OFFICIALS HAD
THOUGHT WOULD BE THEIR
>> AMY.
>> OH.
SORRY.
WELL, I MEAN THIS SPEAKS TO THE
FAILURES THAT THE RUSSIANS HAVE
HAD ACROSS THE BOARD AND HOW
UNPREPARED THEY WERE GOING IN.
I THINK THE INTERCEPTS WILL BE
INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT WHEN IT
COMES TO WAR CRIMES TRIALS AT
SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE BASED
ON WHAT THE RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN
SAYING ACROSS THESE LINES, IT
DOES APPEAR THEY ARE OPENLY AND
KNOWINGLY TARGETING CIVILIAN
INFRASTRUCTURE.
THAT'S THE KIND OF THING WHICH
INVESTIGATORS WILL BE LOOKING
VERY CLOSELY AT WHEN IT COMES TO
FUTURE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNALS.
>> KATTY KAY, JUMP IN.
>> WILLIAM, I WANTED TO ASK YOU
MORE ABOUT THE GENERALS AND WHAT
YOU THINK THAT MEANS IN TERMS OF
MORALE OF THE TROOPS, HOW THAT
MESSAGE MAY BE GETTING BACK TO
PUTIN.
BECAUSE ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I
THINK AS WE GO FORWARD AND WE
LOOK AT THE RUSSIAN STRATEGY
GOING FORWARD IS HOW MUCH
RELIABLE INFORMATION IS VLADIMIR
PUTIN HIMSELF ACTUALLY GETTING
IN DO WE?
DO WE KNOW HE SEES THE WAR AS WE
ARE SEEING THE WAR?
DO WE KNOW WHETHER HE IS SEEING
THE LOSSES?
DO WE KNOW IF HE IS SEEING THE
LOSS OF SOME OF THESE GENERALS?
WHAT IS YOUR UNDERSTANDING FROM
THE REPORTING ON WHETHER THE
DEATHS OF THESE GENERALS MAY BE
GETTING THROUGH TO THE KREMLIN
AND WHAT IT MIGHT MEAN?
>> YES, THAT'S AN EXCELLENT
QUESTION.
THE MESSAGE OF THE RUSSIAN
GENERALS WILL TARGETED AND
KILLED IS CERTAINLY GETTING
ACROSS THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA IN
UKRAINE TO UKRAINIANS.
SO IT BOLSTERS UKRAINIAN TROOPS
AND IT HELP IT CIVILIAN
POPULATIONS WITHSTAND THE
BARRAGE THEY'RE UNDER.
IN TERMS OF WHAT MESSAGES ARE
REACHING VLADIMIR PUTIN ON ANY
GIVEN DAY, I DON'T REALLY KNOW.
THE LOSS OF SO MANY SENIOR
OFFICERS THOUGH HAS TO PENETRATE
THE ARMY CORPS, AND THIS IS A
WELL-KNOWN THING AMONG THEM.
IT IS VERY HIDDEN BY THE
RUSSIANS.
IT IS NOT OUT IN THEIR PUBLIC
MEDIA.
IT IS NOT BEING DISCUSSED.
IT IS NOT WITH ANY AVAILABILITY
ON RUSSIAN MEDIA, BUT HE HAS TO
KNOW THESE MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN
LOST.
AND WHETHER THAT AFFECTS THEIR
TACTICS GOING FORWARD OR AFFECTS
HIS DECISION TO GO TO CEASE-FIRE
OR TO WHATEVER ELSE HE DOES NEXT
IS UNCLEAR.
BUT IT IS A CLEAR BLOW TO LOSE
THESE MANY SENIOR OFFICERS IN
THE FIELD IN FOUR WEEKS OF
COMBAT.
IT IS REALLY JUST BRUTAL.
>> AMY, IS THERE A SIGNIFICANT
STORY AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
AT THE START OF THE WAR THAT THE
UKRAINIANS WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL
ASSISTANCE OF WESTERN
INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES AMPUTATED
THE COMMAND-AND-CONTROL CAPACITY
OF THE RUSSIAN ARMY?
>> THEY'VE CERTAINLY MADE A VERY
GOOD SHOT OF THAT, AS WILLIAM IS
REPORTING, AS WILLIAM AND HIS
COLLEAGUES' REPORTING BEARS OUT.
THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF SURPRISES
ONLY FOUR WEEKS INTO THIS WAR.
FIRST, AS I SAID EARLIER, IS HOW
UNPREPARED RUSSIAN TROOPS WERE.
THE SECOND BEING HOW FIERCELY
AND HOW SMARTLY THE UKRAINIAN
FORCES HAVE FOUGHT.
WHAT THEY'VE DONE IS PLAYED TO
THEIR ADVANTAGES.
THEY'RE NOT ENGAGING RUSSIA IN
THE FIELDS IN BIG BATTLES WHERE
RUSSIA HAS THE NUMBERS TO
OVERWHELM THEM.
THEY'VE STUCK MAINLY TO URBAN
AREAS WHERE THEY HAVE THE
ADVANTAGE AS THE HOME TEAM, THEY
KNOW THE TERRAIN.
THEY'VE MOVED IN SMALL
FORMATIONS AND THEY'RE WAGING A
WAR OF ATTRITION QUITE
SUCCESSFULLY AS REPORTING ON THE
DEATHS OF SENIOR RUSSIAN
COMMANDERS ATTESTS TO, PICKING
OFF RUSSIAN TROOPS ONE AFTER
ANOTHER UNDERMINING MORALE AND
IT WILL QUICKLY UNDERMINE
MOSCOW'S ABILITY IN THE FIELD.
THEIR INITIAL GOAL GOING INTO
THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A
LIGHTNING STREAK ON KYIV WITH
THE EXPECTATION IT WOULD
COLLAPSE IN A FEW DAYS.
THAT, OF COURSE, NOW LOOKS
INCREDIBLY ELUSIVE.
WHAT WE SAW ON FRIDAY IN A
SPEECH FROM A SENIOR RUSSIAN
MILITARY COMMANDER THEY'RE
ALLEGING, LET'S SEE IF IT PLAYS
OUT IN THE FIELD BECAUSE THERE'S
ONLY SO MUCH YOU CAN TAKE ON
RUSSIAN OFFICIALS WORDS AT FACE