This is Joseph Stalin.
The tyrannical dictator of the USSR, whose rule was built off of fear and ideological brainwashing.
The legacy of his actions have cast a shadow over modern history.
Wait...
...what are you doing?
No... I take it back-
Stalin was a complex figure.
He was a small, uninspiring, and sickly man,
who was somehow able to rule the largest country on Earth simply by sheer brutality.
Born to a devout and poor family in rural Georgia-
-not that Georgia.
He never should have ruled.
But he did.
And just like figures in the 20th century like Hitler, FDR, and Churchill,
him being in his place at this time in history changed everything.
And the only way to truly know how different the world would be WITHOUT Stalin is to take him out of it.
And so that's why I have a scenario,
What if Stalin NEVER came to power?
Well, before I can discuss that, here's some historical context.
Now if you already know all this history, just click here and skip to the scenario.
Go ahead...
...do it.
Personal Stuff:
Oversimplifying the first 20-something years of his life,
Little Stalin was born in Georgia, under the Russian Empire, living with his parents in a poor household.
His real name, was-
...
UHH...
His mother wished for him to become a priest.
And he recieved a scholarship to go to the Tiflis Spiritual Seminary.
It was here where he began reading the controversial views of Karl Marx
(and ironically became an atheist).
At this point in his life, in 1901,
Stalin began running...
...with a different crowd.
As in, an underground, revolutionary Bolshevik movement,
bent on bringing down a corrupt autocracy.
(You know, kids stuff.)
After reading the works of Vladimir Lenin,
Stalin wanted to hop on board,
and quickly became comm-rades
(I'm so sorry)
with Vladimir himself.
The Bolsheviks, at this time, were very underground.
So much so, they pulled off bank heists to get money to fund their operations.
Stalin really doesn't do anything except work for the cause.
For the next 17 years, the Bolsheviks would slowly become prominent,
as anger and distrust rose against the Czar's regime.
Welp, it's that time of the century, World War I (1914-1918).
And Russia is preparing to go kill some Germans!
And then they don't!
This brutal and pointless war leaves the Tsar in a pretty bad position with the people,
who are growing more restless.
1917 comes by, and Lenin, who has been in exile for years,
finally returns back to the Motherland, and the Revolution can begin!
YAY.
(Yes, I know this is a vast oversimplification.
Check out my Russian Revolution video if you want to brush up on that history.)
Russia drops out of WW1, and now the Russian Civil War (1917-1922) has begun.
Communists VS Non-Communists, day VS night.
(Batmanversussuperman...)
In the fighting, Lenin formed the Politburo,
which were the main central leaders for the future Soviet Union.
It was a small group, but the only names you need to remember are
Lenin, Stalin and Leon Trotsky.
Trotsky is the main guy we need to focus on.
Without Stalin, he is the obvious replacement.
Why?
Because he was supposed to be.
Who was Leon Trotsky?
Trotsky grew up in Odessa, where he grew discontent with the Czar's regime,
its antisemitic policies, and hardship against the working class.
There, he wrote about his Communist sympathies as a journalist,
and was arrested at the age of eighteen.
This is actually where his pen name came to be (Trotsky was the name of his prison guard).
He fled to London, where he met Vladimir Lenin, and they edited a Communist paper together.
He fell out with Lenin, when they split in ideology (which happens a lot with revolutionaries).
In 1905, he went hardcore - so to say -
Vowing to literally fight the Czar after his return in St. Petersburg, and joining the Soviet, a workers council, in the city.
This revolution was put down.
Hard.
And Trotsky was arrested again.
But, he was able to escape, once again going on the run in exile.
For Trotsky, he believed that Communism should be universal.
He wanted a revolution that spanned across the world - not just in Russia.
For the next decade, Trotsky was in exile, living from city to city, writing his communist ideals,
becoming a celebrity of sorts.
He fought with Lenin and the Bolshevik's ideas, who wanted a more centralized party,
while Trotsky wanted a looser and larger one.
Once revolution erupted in 1917, Trotsky found his opportunity to return.
Him and Lenin traveled back to Russia, to lead the fight.
Returning to Russia, Trotsky and Lenin rebuilt their relationship and became allies.
(Because, when EVERYONE wants to kill you, you kinda have to.)
Almost immediately, supporters of the Tsar,
or anyone not wanting a communist state, declared war against the new Bolshevik regime.
And the war had begun.
Trotsky was charismatic, and an extreme idealist.
(The only reason I bring this up is because this is everything Stalin is NOT.)
Trotsky, with his revolutionary zeal, was put in charge of the Red Army.
The resulting war, was horrific. Atrocities occurred by both sides.
Many ordered by Trotsky himself to destroy any opposition.
The communists were on the defense in many periods, and defeat was always at the door.
Do not think, for a second, Trotsky was a pure angel.
Of course, with our viewing glasses from the 21st century, anyone seems better than Stalin.
Still, Trotsky was a fanatic, extreme, revolutionary.
While Stalin was brutal in securing his own personal control,
Trotsky would KILL, to maintain the dominance of the party.
For him, blood was REQUIRED, to secure the Soviet Union.
As the war deteriorated, this blood was spilled more and more frequently.
To the opposition, he was deemed a butcher.
After 3 years of war and revolution, the Red Army, finally won, against the White.
Millions had died, and starved to death, the country was in ruins.
But, the Soviet Union, the first of it's kind, was secure.
Lenin was under bad health, and now the talk of his successor had begun.
Trotsky, to the world (and Russia), was always seen as the obvious choice.
He was the right hand of Lenin, leader of the Red Army, in face of the revolution.
But, an upset occurred.
Instead, Joseph Stalin, powerhungry (and at this time, in the shadows,) had manipulated control to grow his support from within the party.
Within a few years, Stalin's grip on the USSR was absolutely secured,
And Trotsky was thrown out of the country.
He lived the rest of his life in Mexico, where his influence as a writer and glimmer of hope
of what could have been, became a threat to Stalin,
who ordered him assassinated in 1940.
One year later, Hitler would invade Russia.
For many, Trotsky is seen as an alternative...
...which was one of the reasons why he was killed.
His fall resulted in the rise of a dictator, whose policies killed millions of his own people,
whose grip hijacked the Bolshevik Revolution into a cult of personality no different than Mussolini or Hitler, who'd he ironically, fight against.
So, as is tradition,
What if, in this alternate timeline, Trotsky, had replaced Lenin?
What if Stalin just never came to power?
In our timeline, Lenin wrote that Stalin was power hungry, and should not become his successor.
Trotsky should have used this initiative to destroy Stalin's powerbase,
but instead, he did nothing.
In this alternate timeline,
Trotsky seizes the opportunity,
and publishes Lenin's opinions that validate him, and discredit Stalin.
(Basically, stopping that little powergrab in its tracks.)
If this doesn't work, than some alternate reason occurs why Stalin doesn't get into power.
(I don't know, we have a lot to cover.)
Point is, Stalin out,
Trotsky in.
While freedom lovin' 'Muricans, such as myself, love capitalism and barbecues, and all that freedom entails,
Many often lump Communism into a single ideology.
Just like you wouldn't think Democrats and Republicans love each other just because they agree on democracy,
same thing with the Soviet Union.
The difference between Trotsky and Stalin is not just in
Stalin ends up killing millions of people,
both had a different mindset on how to achieve Communism,
and what it should play on the world.
Stalin had an idea called "Socialism in One Country".
To sum it all up, "Everyone wants to kill us, so why try to expand?".
Which wasn't particularly UN-true,
(Considering how every European and Western power funded the White Army),
Stalin believed that since socialist uprisings failed in Europe,
the best course of action was to NOT focus on a world revolution,
but to maintain what they already had.
And what did they already have?
Stalin.
So,
Keep Me in Power.
Trotsky and his followers, who happened to follow Trotskyism,
well,
very much disagreed with this idea.
Communism as an end goal, isn't supposed to have borders,
so this "One Country Approach" didn't go over well.
They were more traditionalists, believing in Marx and Lenin's that
workers all over the world will unite,
and global communism will be a natural thing.
Trotsky, as a hardcore revolutionary, believe the Soviets must fund socialist uprisings across the world to make this happen.
In this alternate timeline, the Soviet Union does not go down the path of Stalinism,
(No duh.)
but instead, goes down the path of Trotskyism.
What does this change?
A whole lot.
(Of course, in a scenario, not everything can be accurately predicted, so every tenant of Trotskyism might not be followed.
Maybe because of opposition, or just, it doesn't work that way.
But for the sake of this scenario, let's say it does.)
In our timeline, Stalinism brought the USSR immediately into an age of autocratic authoritarianism,
where paranoia and brutality reigned supreme.
Just as the Nazis expelled and destroyed any opposition,
immediately, a cult of personality circulated around Stalin.
Purges on an immense scale hunted down Old Bolsheviks who had disagreed with him to extinction.
Anyone, and everyone, who was a potential threat, either shot, or sent to the Gulags.
In this alternate timeline, the Soviet Union is not authoritarian, centralized state.
It's not comparative to a republic, like the US or Western Europe,
but it isn't the state of immense political death.
The phrase "Dictatorship of the Proletariat" didn't actually mean a dictatorship.
Under Trotsky, what is instead implemented is "Soviet Democracy".
In this alternate scenario, the Soviet Union is made up of numerous democratically elected worker councils.
"Soviets", who would elect their own representatives, to the larger Council of Soviets.
It's almost like...a union.
Of Soviets.
This was what was meant by a "dictatorship".
Instead of nobles, capitalists, or priests making the decisions,
in Trotsky's mind, the working class is the main body in charge.
(I can't really say if this state would be effective, but that's what the original plan was supposed to be.)
Not one guy controls the everything.
But the PARTY does.
"Wow", you say,
"That doesn't sound...completely terrible."
(Yeah, but, also, keep in mind, this is TROTSKY we're talking about.
The believer that the Revolution never ends.)
The Soviet Union becomes the supplier of socialist rebellions across the world.
A good modern equivalent today is Saudi Arabia.
(That's a story for another day : )
The Soviet Union uses its strength to fund military groups, communist parties, socialists of all kinds, across the world.
Under Stalin, the Soviet Union turned its back on these revolutionaries, except for in Spain.
With the "Socialism in One Country" idea under Stalin, the Soviet Union was only supposed to preserve itself.
Or, simply put, Stalin wanted to preserve Stalin.
With Trotsky as leader, the USSR takes a more...selfless approach, for a lack of better words.
The constant revolution MUST be achieved.
(Now, whether they succeed in doing this, in this alternate timeline, is up to your opinion.)
But what this realistically does, is,
1. Makes the USSR far more antagonistic to the West than in our timeline when Stalin was focused on his people,
2. Drains a whole lot of USSR resources, and,
3. Pisses off a LOT OF PEOPLE.
Under Trotskyism, the USSR is a much more prominent antagonist in the 1930s.
"Oh, so like how the Soviets created the Eastern Bloc in the Cold War," you say.
NO.
This is an entirely different mentality.
That whole "Take over post-WWII Iron Curtain, funding communist regimes in Asia",
wasn't for the "noble" idea of "spreading socialist utopia."
It was to create a buffer zone against Russia's enemies.
This mentality was BORN with Stalin.
In this alternate timeline,
Soviet foreign policy is extremely combative and zealous,
but doesn't prioritize Russia's safety over others.
This was Lenin's main idea.
And with Trotsky, it would continue.
And what better way for the workers of the world to unite than a global depression?
Internationally, by the time the 1930s come around,
the Soviets have a much stronger priority on getting communist revolutions going against the capitalist West,
basically, kicking it while it's down.
Trotsky NEVER wanted to negotiate with the capitalists.
Of course, they didn't use ALL their resources to fund people,
but, they certainly do more damage than Stalin did.
In our timeline,
Stalin was a paranoid nutcase.
He saw everyone and everything as a potential threat.
But what he most distrusted was the outside world,
and believed that the USSR would be annihilated by the capitalist powers if it didn't industrialize.
He believed that a war would occur at some point, and that the USSR must move decades ahead technologically, if it was to survive.
Problem was, most of Russia looked like this.
Across the 1930s, 5 Year Plans reinvented Russian society.
It took a nation that a generation before was in practical feudalism, and brought it into the 20th century,
kicking and screaming.
And by kicking and screaming, I mean
the most heartless policies that resulted in millions starving to death.
So,
What happens in this alternate timeline?
Hitler still rises to power in Germany.
The Nazis still have the idea of Lebensraum, and no matter who is in charge of Russia, Germany still wants that land.
Well, in this alternate timeline,
those 5 Year Plans still happen.
Millions potentially still die,
because industrialization was Trotsky's original idea, not Stalin's.
Stalin just stole that after he kicked Trotsky out.
So, in this scenario, we could actually an industrial Red Army, just like in our timeline.
"So then, what's the main difference?"
Stalin was an idiot.
He was such an idiot, he thought he could trust a regime who rose from the explicit hatred of communism.
Before 1941, Hitler and Stalin had a bit of an alliance after invading, raping & massacring the Poles between them.
Most Russians with common sense, saw that Hitler couldn't be trusted.
In fact, many people reported that the Nazis were preparing an invasion, but, Stalin did nothing.
Trotsky, on the other hand, saw the danger that Nazism truly was.
The intense anti-communist rhetoric, the violent ideology, the "Hey, we're going to TAKE YOUR LAND" thing.
In this alternate timeline, I believe that Trotsky would not have sat idly by and allowed the Nazis to dictate the war on their own terms.
In this alternate timeline,
it would be the USSR that would invade Nazi Germany,
NOT the other way around.
Trotsky, although he was an intellectual and believed in a less authoritarian way of governing, was still brutal.
He led the Red Army for a reason.
And if he was in charge, Russia never would have sat back.
In this scenario,
Instead of the Nazis' "surprise attack on Russia",
the Soviet Union invades Poland and Germany.
(The specifics of such a war, I can't really predict),
but without the stupidity of Stalin at the top,
the Soviet Red Army is a far more effective and terrifying tool against the Germans.
However, they could be TOO effective.
The Soviet Union could establish a series of communist regimes, just like in our timeline,
but across Germany instead.
Now, see this from the perspective of the Allies.
Under Trotsky, the Soviet Union
has funded international communist rebellions against countries like France, Britain, and America.
They are the closest to enemies you can get.
While Nazi Germany was certainly horrible,
this communist nation, which no one is allies with,
has invaded and spread their ideology, across the entire European continent.
What would you do?
Well, in our timeline,
Churchill wanted to fight the Soviets even after World War II (Operation Unthinkable),
So, in this alternate timeline,
the West probably wouldn't be all hunky-dory about Trotsky's Red Army plowing through Germany.
In this alternate scenario,
Fascism, while it was bad,
lived too short of a life to be a massive threat in comparison.
While communism was a decades old enemy.
We could see an actual World War II...
...but between the Soviet Union and the West (*RA3 Soviet March plays in the background*).
This has many ramifications.
1. If the Russians invaded Germany, they would push a very large Nazi population underground.
The fears of the Nazis and the far-right would be legitimized,
and without the war crimes and horrors of the Holocaust,
fascism is never discredited, but instead, is martyred.
2. Britain, France, the United States, Italy, and underground anti-communist movements across Europe, fight a war against the Soviets.
I can't predict how long this war would be, or how many would be killed by it, but you have to think, everyone is fighting the Russians.
Perhaps, Russia is pushed out of Europe.
Perhaps the West decides to overthrow the source of international communism.
This means another land war against Russia.
But instead of the Nazis, it's Brits, French, Germans, & Americans, all fighting together.
In this alternate timeline,
fascism is never killed.
It remains a legitimized, and often, popular alternative in Western society.
The Cold War never occurs because it already got hot.
The political relationships of post-World War II are entirely changed in ways I can''t even predict.
Trotsky was not a saint.
He was like Stalin in many ways.
But he was also less authoritarian, and more idealistic.
Had he been in power, he would have been a hero to many,
and most likely, one of the most hated men in history.
Millions still would have died of hunger under his regime,
potential millions from a war he could start.
What this scenario shows is that without Trotsky, the 20th century entirely changes.
The greatest generation, modern culture, all from one guy 80 years ago, getting booted out of his job.
This is just one scenario about what if Stalin never came to power.
We'll never truly know how things could have changed, yet, it's fun to theorize.
What do you think could have happened in this alternate timeline?
Say in the comments!
This is Cody, of AlternateHistoryHub.
(Cody: "Special thanks to Jonathan Campbell, who suggested this video idea.
If you wanna learn more about Russia in World War II,
I made an entire series about Allied and Russian tanks on my second channel, KnowledgeHub,
so go check that out.")
[music]